Kathrin Lenz-Raymann Securitization of Islam: A Vicious Circle global local Islam Kathrin Lenz-Raymann (lic. phil.) works in the field of political consulting in Zu- rich, Switzerland. Her research interests include social and human security, counter-terrorism policies and human rights. Kathrin Lenz-Raymann Securitization of Islam: A Vicious Circle Counter-Terrorism and Freedom of Religion in Central Asia This thesis was accepted as a doctoral dissertation by the Faculty of Arts of the University of Zurich in the spring semester 2014 on the recommendation of Prof. Dr. Albert A. Stahel, Prof. Dr. Kurt Imhof and Prof. Dr. Ueli Mäder. This project was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommer- cial-NoDerivs 4.0 (BY-NC-ND) which means that the text may be used for non- commercial purposes, provided credit is given to the author. For details go to http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. To create an adaptation, translation, or derivative of the original work and for commercial use, further permission is required and can be obtained by contac- ting rights@transcript-verlag.de © 2014 transcript Verlag, Bielefeld Bibliographic information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Na- tionalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data are available in the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de All photographs and cover illustration: Lisa Harand Cover layout: Kordula Röckenhaus, Bielefeld Printed by Majuskel Medienproduktion GmbH, Wetzlar Print-ISBN 978-3-8376-2904-0 PDF-ISBN 978-3-8394-2904-4 Content Thanks | 13 Summary | 15 1. Introduction | 17 1.1. Research Interest | 17 1.2. Theoretical Background | 27 1.3. Methods | 30 1.4. Databases, Country Reports and Country Profiles | 38 P ART I R EVIVAL OF I SLAM : C ASE S TUDIES OF I SLAMIC G ROUPS 2. Features of Central Asian Folk Islam | 45 2.1. General Remarks on Islam | 45 2.2. Sunni Hanafi Madhab | 49 2.3. Sufism | 54 2.4. Folk Islam: Saints Culture and Mazar Worshipping | 61 3. Salafi Islam: Social Transformation and Political Islam | 69 3.1. Catchwords, Misconceptions and Important Terms | 70 3.2. Political Islam and Salafism | 76 3.3. Jihadists: Armed Warriors for the Caliphate | 83 3.4. Islamists: Political Parties | 89 3.5. Modernists and Neo-Fundamentalists: Social Transformation | 97 4. Typology of Islamic Groups | 109 4.1. Folk-Islamic Groups | 109 4.2. Non-Traditional Islamic Groups | 110 P ART II P OLITICS AND I SLAM : C ASE S TUDIES OF P OLITICAL R EGIMES 5. History of Politics and Islam in Central Asia | 117 5.1. Early Empires and Islamization of Central Asia | 117 5.2. The Communist State and Islam in Central Asia | 129 6. General Comparison of Contemporary Regimes | 139 6.1. Demographic Situation | 142 6.2. Socio-economic Situation | 147 6.3. Political System and Government Bodies | 158 7. Comparison of the Contemporary Role of Religion in Politics | 177 7.1. Freedom of Religion and The Concept of Recognition | 178 7.2. Secularity in the Constitution | 179 7.3. Content of Religious Laws | 185 7.4. Institutions Involved with Religion | 196 7.5. Procedures Concerning Religion | 202 8. Comparison of Law Enforcement | 209 8.1. Security Strategies and Counter-Terrorism Laws | 210 8.2. Security Forces | 214 8.3. International Cooperation in the Security Sector | 221 8.4. Comparison of the Judiciary: Trials and Torture | 227 9. Typology of Religious and Counter-Terrorism Politics | 233 9.1. Typology of State Regulation of Folk Islam | 233 9.2. Typology of State Regulation of Non-Traditional Groups | 236 P ART III S ECURITIZATION : T HEORY AND S IMULATION M ODEL 10. Securitization Theory: Legitimacy in Security Politics | 243 10.1. Legitimacy in Securitization Theory | 243 10.2. Vocabulary and Units of Analysis | 246 10.3. Securitization of Islam in Central Asia | 252 11. Model Description | 257 11.1. Overview and ODD-Protocol | 257 11.2. Simulation Setup | 264 11.3. Simulation Results: Revival of Islam | 271 11.4. Threatened Reference Objects | 273 11.5. Securitizing Moves | 276 12. Model Verification and Validation | 279 12.1. Sensitivity Analysis | 279 12.2. Verification: Mutual Reinforcement of Securitization | 280 12.3. Validation: Simulation Results and Empirical Data | 282 13. Conclusions | 289 13.1. Conclusions from Computer Simulation | 289 13.2. General Concluding Remarks | 290 Literature | 293 Appendix Appendix A: Official Documents and Websites | 319 Appendix B: NetLogo Code for Simulation | 321 Appendix C: Initial Values and Parameters for Simulation | 324 L IST OF T ABLES Table 1: Muslim Population in Central Asia: Sunnis and Shiites | 50 Table 2: Typology of Non-Traditional Islamic Groups | 112 Table 3: Demographic Benchmarks | 142 Table 4: Ethnic Composition of Central Asian Societies | 144 Table 5: Religious Composition: Muslims and Christians | 145 Table 6: Economic Benchmarks | 147 Table 7: Poverty Benchmarks | 151 Table 8: Numbers of Migrant Workers Abroad | 153 Table 9: International Trading Partners | 154 Table 10: Infrastructural Benchmarks | 156 Table 11: Human Development Index | 157 Table 12: Political Systems and Presidents | 161 Table 13: Structure and Composition of Parliaments | 165 Table 14: Freedom and Democracy Indices | 169 Table 15: Religious Committees | 196 Table 16: Muftiates and Muftis | 202 Table 17: Paramilitary Resources | 217 Table 18: Military Resources | 221 Table 19: Political Terror Scale | 230 Table 20: Legal Status of Salafi Groups in Central Asia | 236 Table 21: Religious Persecution Index | 239 Table 22: Detainees on Religious Grounds | 240 Table 23: Securitization Theory in the Central Asian Context | 252 Table 24: Conflict Assumptions for Vicious Circle Hypothesis | 254 Table 25: Securitization in the Simulation | 258 Table 26: ODD-Protocol | 259 Table 27: Application of Data for Simulation Model | 267 Table 28: Calculation of Context-Legitimacy | 268 Table 29: Initial Values for Simulation | 268 Table 30: Interactions of Agents | 269 Table 31: Context-Legitimacy (Simulation Parameter) | 272 Table 32: Capacities of Security Forces (Simulation Parameter) | 273 Table 33: PTS (Simulation Parameter) | 277 Table 34: Validation of Terrorist Attacks | 283 Table 35: Validation of Timing of Securitizaton by State Actors | 284 Table 36: Validation of Constraints on Religious Freedom | 286 Table 37: Initial Values and Parameters for Simulation | 324 L IST OF F IGURES Figure 1: Numbers of Suicide Attacks in Central Asia | 20 Figure 2: Repression-radicalization Hypothesis | 23 Figure 3: Vicious-circle Hypothesis | 26 Figure 4: Percentages of Muslims Identifying with a Sufi Order | 63 Figure 5: Percentage of Muslims Supporting Folk Islam | 67 Figure 6: Quran Reading by Central Asian Muslims | 78 Figure 7: Approval for Terrorist Attacks Compared to Support for Sharia | 84 Figure 8: Attitudes towards Political Islam among Central Asian Muslims | 89 Figure 9: Relationship between Religion and Modernity | 98 Figure 10: Preference for Democracy or a Powerful Leader | 163 Figure 11: Frequency of Prayers and Visitation of Religious Services | 234 Figure 12: Perception of Religious Policies by Central Asian Muslims | 234 Figure 13: Different Religious Groups Compete for Influence | 271 Figure 14: Unofficial Islam Supercedes Official Islam | 272 Figure 15: Arbitrary Arrests Lead to Protest | 274 Figure 16: Clouds of Protestors Gather | 275 Figure 17: Political Islam’s Share of Unofficial Islam | 275 Figure 18: Radicalized Detainees Released asJjihadists | 276 Figure 20: No Detentions and No Protests | 281 Figure 21: Detentions and Protests | 281 Figure 22: Protestors, Jihadists and Casualties | 282 Figure 23: Simulation Results | 289 L IST OF I MAGES Image 1: Mosque at Baytik Baatir Mazar | 65 Image 2: Gravestone of Baytik Baatir’s Friend | 65 Image 3: Shayk at Baytik Baatir Mazar | 66 Image 4: Meeting at the IRPT Headquarter in Dushanbe | 95 Image 5: Kabiri, President of the IRPT | 96 Image 6: Manas University in Bishkek | 99 Image 7: Madrasa supported by Gülen Movement in Bishkek | 101 Image 8: Gülen Radio Maral in Bishkek | 102 Image 9: Kyrgyz Member of Tablighi Jama’at | 107 Image 10: Private Religious Class in Bishkek | 192 Image 11: Kazakh Muftiate in Almaty | 198 Thanks This study is my doctoral thesis and was financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF). I am glad for having had this opportunity to work and do research in my special field of interest. First of all, my thanks go to my doctoral committee, consisting of Prof. Dr. Albert A. Stahel (Insti- tute for Strategic Studies, Wädenswil), Prof. Dr. Kurt Imhof (University of Zurich) and Prof. Dr. Ueli Mäder (University of Basel). In particular, Al- bert Stahel strengthened my critical mind concerning world politics and the strategic decision-making of nation states. His faith in my scientific en- deavours gave me the self-confidence to keep going with my work. My simulation model profited from the long-time simulation experience and advice of Armando Geller (co-founder of Scensei, and affiliated with the School of Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason Universi- ty in Washington) and Lukas Schmid (head of the Institute for Innovation, Design und Engineering at the University of Applied Sciences of St. Gallen). Their critique enabled me to improve the model and made me real- ise that a lot would still have to be done to bring it up to date. Many people enriched this study by giving me formal or informal inter- views in Central Asia. I cannot name all of them because some could face difficulties with their restrictive governments. I am very thankful for their hospitality and openness to discuss with me their religious and political worldviews. My Kyrgyz friends in Switzerland enabled me to come into contact with many people in the field and were always open to discuss the topic of my research with me. Without them this study would not have become as vivid, well-researched and detailed as it has. They helped me with their knowledge of local languages, by sharing their own research and life expe- 14 | S ECURITIZATION OF I SLAM IN C ENTRAL A SIA riences with me, and by contacting their relatives and friends in the region. Aijamal Huonker was also employed by SNF in the project to do research in local online newspapers as well as on official websites, and also helped me to transcribe some interviews. Baktygul Karimova was especially help- ful by advising me on how to do research in the field and by introducing me to many people in the field. Another special thanks I owe Lisa Harand. She enabled me to undertake a research trip to Central Asia by looking after my daughter during my in- terviews there. The wonderful pictures she took enrich this study with in- sights that words cannot capture. After a common vernissage we co- published a “by-product” of my dissertation – the photobook “Re- Islamisierung in Zentralasien”. Our collaboration showed me that scientific research is even more valuable if it is illustrated in a way accessible to the broader public. My former English teacher, Lee Mackenzie, reviewed my texts careful- ly and I am indebted to him not only for grammar corrections but also for many comments on style. Except from myself, no-one read my texts as carefully as he did, and I think no-one will do so in the future. Apart from his professional help, I am very happy that he was on my side during the whole process of the development of this study. To take a broad view, without my employment at econcept AG, this study would have been much more difficult to accomplish. By giving me very good and flexible working conditions, Barbara Haering enabled me to work, complete my doctorate and also give birth and raise two wonderful girls all at the same time. Last but not least, I want to thank my friends and, most of all, my hus- band and family members who have been patient enough to enable me to fulfil this work which has become a matter that is close to my heart. Summary The main concern of my study is to understand the contemporary conflicts regarding Islam in the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Today a revival of Islam can be observed, which began in the last years of the Soviet Union. Since the late 1990s Central Asian governments have feared Islamic terrorism and have taken diverse measures against its spread. Despite this, as I show, apart from fundamenta- list movements, modernist groups and folk Islam are also gaining ground in Central Asia. By way of an explanation, my vicious-circle hypothesis de- monstrates how state repression against such movements might be having a counter-intended effect on the radicalization of Muslims in the region. The revival of Islam in Central Asia cannot be analyzed without under- standing the local forms of Islam prevalent in the region. Part I of the study highlights the most important aspects of Central Asian Islam such as the prevalence of the Sunni Hanafi School of law and the adaptation of local customs; the combination with pre-Islamic rituals, and the influence of Su- fism. Following this I present an overview of the different definitions of po- litical Islam and the history of Salafism before introducing the most in- fluential Salafi groups in the region. Not only do I focus on radical political groups in my analysis but also on apolitical groups and religious move- ments aiming at the mere social transformation of the society. Indeed I also regard these as an essential part of my analysis since they often have more members than political groups and are similarly prone to state repression. This part concludes with a typology of actors contributing to the revival of Isalm. In part II I focus on the relationship between politics and religion during the last centuries. Knowledge of tsarist and communist religious po- 16 | S ECURITIZATION OF I SLAM IN C ENTRAL A SIA licies is important for an understanding of the politics of the contemporary Central Asian states in the domains of religion, security and jurisprudence. I start my comparative study by addressing the issue of how Central Asian states are currently dealing with Islam: I analyze the status of religion in their respective constitutions, the content of religious laws, the institutions which are involved with religion and some important state-controlled pro- cedures concerning religion such as hajj and the registration-process for re- ligious communities. I furthermore compare these countries’ security stra- tegies and counter-terrorism laws, the capacities of their secret police (GKNB), of their internal forces (MVD) and their military and give an overview of their international security cooperation. Against this back- ground, I finally elaborate an actor-typology of the Central Asian states’ restrictions towards Islamic groups. In part III securitization theory provides us with a useful theoretical framework to analyze my hypothesis with an agent-based computer simula- tion. As I reveal, many observers of Central Asian government policies suggest that state repression towards Islamic groups leads to the radicaliza- tion of individuals but they do not explain how this mechanism has come about. I here use a computer simulation model to test my hypothesis and the assumed mechanisms. Finally, I present my simulation model of the con- flict in Central Asia and draw some conclusions from the simulation out- comes. 1. Introduction 1.1. R ESEARCH I NTEREST Today western countries fear international terrorism and Islamic fundamen- talism. As Richard Clarke made clear after 9/11, the international terror network of jihadists will be the biggest danger to the US national security in the near future and will probably also need to be combated in the follo- wing generation (Clarke 2005: 11). In addition to western nation-states, the United Nations Security Council also declared terrorism a major threat to international security. After 9/11 the following Security Council Resolution was penned on September 28 2001: “[...] the Security Council [is] deeply concerned by the increase, in various regions of the world, of acts of terro- rism motivated by intolerance or extremism” (UNO 2001: 1). Whereas western governments have subsequently used the (legitimate) grounds of state security to justify their ‘War on Terror’, they have at the same time, “persuaded their citizens to accept less progressive and rigorous norms, ea- sing the job of law enforcement at the cost of individual human rights” (Kamalova 2007: 1). This is even truer for Central Asian governments who are used to governing in an environment where respect for human rights does not yet have such a long political tradition as in Europe and the US. I concentrate here on the comparison of the former Soviet Republics of Kaz- akhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. (As Turkmenistan is a too special case because the repression and state-control are very extreme and the country is totally closed to any international observers and scientific re- search, this case is excluded from the study.) Despite criticism from human rights organizations, western powers like the US, France and Germany as well as western collective treaty organizations such as NATO collaborate – along with Russia and SCO – with these authoritarian Central Asian re- 18 | S ECURITIZATION OF I SLAM IN C ENTRAL A SIA gimes to ‘fight terrorism’. These human rights organizations state that the international discourse on Islamic terrorism justifies human rights violati- ons and the suppression of the already very weak opposition in the Central Asian countries. Indeed, Khalid explains that by taking part in the ‘War on Terror’ Central Asian countries can expand their power “by tying all dome- stic opposition to ‘international terrorism’, even when no links actually exist” (Khalid 2007: 169). Kamalova exemplifies this with the case of Uz- bekistan which went furthest in this regard (Kamalova 2007). The Central Asian countries differ in terms of the strength of their poli- tical regimes; the extent to which their security forces use repressive means, and also in terms of their respective cultures and level of religiosity. How- ever, despite these differences, my case study shows that at least with re- gards to the development of the religious reality and the handling of religi- ous groups all Central Asian states share some common features. Social developments: • A ‘revival of Islam’ is underway in Central Asia. This ‘revival of Islam’ is ideologically multi-faceted: not only are neo-fundamentalist move- ments becoming more popular but modernist Islamic groups are also gaining more members. In addition, folk Islam is being practiced on a more regular basis. • On the one hand there are devout religious Muslims without any social or political agenda while on the other there are armed Islamic groups aiming to establish an Islamic state. • Among those who are working towards an Islamic society are groups which proselytize peacefully and others who execute terrorist acts which lead to deaths and casualties. Government response: • The Central Asian governments have established their own interpretati- on of ‘traditional Islam’ as the legal, ‘official’ Islam. • Central Asian governments lump together all foreign Islamic move- ments as ‘extremist’ and ‘terrorist’. • The Central Asian governments restrict the freedom of religion of their citizens by counter-terrorism measures. I NTRODUCTION | 19 1.1.1. Research Question Comparing the extreme examples concerning the threat of Islamist terro- rism I can observe the following differences between the Central Asian sta- tes: • Since the early 2000s seven suicide attacks have taken place in Uzbe- kistan (see Figure 1). Furthermore, this country has the highest numbers of detainees on religious grounds: the total figure is estimated to be se- veral thousands (see Table 21). According to the Human Rights Defen- ders of Uzbekistan in 2012 alone 250 Muslims were detained on religi- ous grounds (see US State Department 2013). • In Kyrgyzstan no terrorist attacks have occurred so far although it is the country with the highest percentage of Muslims (10% of the population) that regard attacks against civilians as at least sometimes justified (see Figure 7) in order to defend Islam (Uzbekistan is the country with the lowest percentage of 0%). Furthermore, an astonishingly high percenta- ge of over 30% of Kyrgyzstanis would welcome the introduction of Sharia as the law of the land (see Figure 7 as well; there is no data available on this question for Uzbekistan). Despite these facts, it is the Central Asian country with the smallest numbers of detainees on religi- ous grounds (approximately 50 people). Another difference between the two countries is that Uzbekistan has the largest proportion of Muslims that do not feel free to practice religion while Kyrgyzstan is the Central Asian country where Muslims feel most free to practice their religion (see Figure 12).