Lecture Notes in Management and Industrial Engineering Next Generation Supply Chains Rosanna Fornasiero Saskia Sardesai Ana Cristina Barros Aristides Matopoulos Editors A Roadmap for Research and Innovation Lecture Notes in Management and Industrial Engineering Series Editor Adolfo L ó pez-Paredes, INSISOC, University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain This book series provides a means for the dissemination of current theoretical and applied research in the areas of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management. The latest methodological and computational advances that can be widely applied by both researchers and practitioners to solve new and classical problems in industries and organizations contribute to a growing source of publications written for and by our readership. The aim of this book series is to facilitate the dissemination of current research in the following topics: • Strategy and Entrepreneurship • Operations Research, Modelling and Simulation • Logistics, Production and Information Systems • Quality Management • Product Management • Sustainability and Ecoef fi ciency • Industrial Marketing and Consumer Behavior • Knowledge and Project Management • Risk Management • Service Systems • Healthcare Management • Human Factors and Ergonomics • Emergencies and Disaster Management • Education More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11786 Rosanna Fornasiero • Saskia Sardesai • Ana Cristina Barros • Aristides Matopoulos Editors Next Generation Supply Chains A Roadmap for Research and Innovation 123 Editors Rosanna Fornasiero CNR Milan, Italy Ana Cristina Barros INESC TEC Porto, Portugal Saskia Sardesai Fraunhofer IML Dortmund, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany Aristides Matopoulos Aston University Birmingham, UK ISSN 2198-0772 ISSN 2198-0780 (electronic) Lecture Notes in Management and Industrial Engineering ISBN 978-3-030-63504-6 ISBN 978-3-030-63505-3 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63505-3 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2021. 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This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Foreword I have always subscribed to the view that the supply chain can provide a powerful platform for creating competitive advantage and that it can enable the business to differentiate itself in the marketplace. The complexity and turbulence that increasingly characterises the business environment today requires supply chains to be adaptive and open to innovation in the face of unexpected challenges. More than ever, supply chain management has become a paramount strategic area to support companies, the economy and society as we seek to respond to those challenges. We are witnessing a shift in organisations ’ priorities when it comes to supply chain design and strategy. Words such as resilience, visibility and fl exibility feature in corporate policy statements and many programmes are underway to transform our capability to respond to unanticipated events. At the same time, in recognition of new consumption habits and demands, sustainability — and all the elements that enable it — and digital transformation — or industry 4.0 — have been incorporated — to a greater or lesser extent — into many supply chains. The pace of change has been so intense that it is a hard task trying to predict what the supply chain future will look like. Obviously, there is no such a thing as a common recipe to deal with all the current challenges and trends. In this sense, I believe that we have to continuously re fl ect on possible future scenarios and try to prepare to respond to them. This is exactly what this book is about! For the past two years, I had been following the NEXT-NET project (https:// nextnetproject.eu/) and it was no surprise to realise that this book can actually help supply chain managers, researchers and policy makers navigate in times of crisis. The book describes six possible macro-scenarios for supply chains in 2030, which give the opportunity for supply chain managers to prepare for various future set- tings. It formalizes ten supply chain strategies with the related research and inno- vation priorities as a guide for academia and industry for their development and implementation. I particularly appreciate that this book also gives the perspective of eight industrial sectors, setting the research in speci fi c contexts. Finally, the book v proposes concrete policy actions to support companies dealing with their current supply chains challenges. I hope that readers will derive as much value as I have from the insights contained within this work. Martin Christopher Emeritus Professor of Marketing and Logistics Cran fi eld School of Management Cran fi eld, UK vi Foreword Preface The year 2020 was characterized by a series of sudden changes that have already heavily affected the economy and the whole society worldwide and are expected to have serious long-lasting consequences in the years to come. After the initial shock for such disruptive event and after the immediate focus on the management of the health crisis/emergency, the world is looking at the consequences of the pandemic caused by COVID-19. The containment measures and the limitations, put in place in each country necessary to save lives and not further overload the national healthcare systems, have had a devastating impact on the worldwide economy and trade since several sectors of national economies were shut down, including many services (hotels, restaurants, non-essential retail trade, tourism) and signi fi cant shares of manufacturing. Production and trade registered falls more steeply in sectors characterized by complex value chains, as for electronics and automotive products. With these conditions, managing supply chain disruption is a challenge for both global and local enterprises as it requires striking a balance between containing the pandemic on the one hand and keeping the economy going on the other hand. A lot has changed since the conception of this book demonstrating once more the rapidly changing nature and interconnectedness of modern economies. This book has become even more necessary than when it was conceived since academia and industry are asked to understand how companies can signi fi cantly adapt the way they are organised and interlinked within their Supply Chains (SC) and to propose concrete actions. At the beginning of our study, we were focusing on understanding how trends like customisation, climate changes, scarcity of resour- ces, acceleration of the technological development bring threats and opportunities for manufacturing sectors (particularly in Europe), as well as for the distribution and logistics sectors and lead to the need of new and recon fi gured SCs that shift from cost competitiveness to striving for the highest value. The importance of forecasting and face up to exogenous factors on SC is more than ever before under our eyes in this period of pandemic disaster. vii New technologies especially related to digitalisation are changing not only the way companies produce and distribute, but also the relationships in networks. Some important themes emerging in these last months enabled by new manufacturing and distribution technologies are even more urgent like: containerized production and last mile delivery of customised and emergency products; management of manu- facturing activities in mini-factories by service providers; reuse and recycling activities to recover second hand raw materials according to the circular economy paradigm; and drones/electric vehicles to change the way products are distributed. All these require a new vision on SC where research and innovation can play a key role for facing internal and external challenges to SC. The goals of this book are summarised as follows: • To map trends and megatrends at political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental level; • To de fi ne industrial scenarios for the next decade based on the analysed trends; • To understand how these scenarios may impact SC processes and how to design future SCs to answer the speci fi c challenges; • To map and analyse the enabling technologies for SC; • To develop a roadmap for the full implementation of the proposed SC models based on research and innovation priorities identi fi ed for each future scenario, towards the full integration of production and distribution processes. The content described in the book is based on a methodological framework that integrates top-down and bottom-up approaches by combining the application of future scenario building with the involvement of many stakeholders from different communities and sectors by means like surveys, interviews, brainstorming sessions and experts workshops. Case studies from process industry, discrete manufacturing, distribution and logistics, ICT providers are carried out to help further under- standing the way SCs are changing and how they can improve thanks to innovation in sectors such as automotive, consumer goods, machine tools, chemical and steel. The book is the result of the EU-funded Coordination and Support Action “ Next generation technologies for networked Europe ” (NEXT NET project-GA N.76884) with the aim to create a cross sectoral initiative at European level to increase integration between process, manufacturing and distribution sectors, proposing research and innovation priorities for the future supply chains. The partners of the NEXT NET project are: CNR, Aston University, Fraunhofer IML, INESC TEC, PNO Innovation, ZLC. Milan, Italy Rosanna Fornasiero Dortmund, Germany Saskia Sardesai Porto, Portugal Ana Cristina Barros Birmingham, UK Aristides Matopoulos viii Preface Acknowledgements First and foremost, our gratitude goes to all our co-author friends who embarked with us in the NEXT-NET project and in this exploratory journey with competences in the fi eld of economics, management and industrial engineering, production engineering and social science to cover different aspects of supply chain studies. With their knowledge and experience it was possible to create an insightful book that otherwise would not be possible. A special thank goes to Irene Marchiori for her precious work both during the project and in the editing and preparation of this book. The editors gratefully acknowledge the more than 150 experts from industry and academia involved along the project and supporting our work during the two-year experience with active participation to workshops, focus groups, questionnaires and surveys and all the steps we have put in place to arrive to the roadmap. The book has bene fi ted immensely from their visions, valuable comments and suggestions during consultation and validation of the content. Last but not least, we would like to sincerely thank the European Commission for the funding of the NEXT NET project within the Horizon 2020 work pro- gramme (DG Research) and in particular we would like to thank our project of fi cer, Nicholas Delyanakis, for his support and valuable advice during the 2 years of the project. Rosanna Fornasiero Ana Cristina Barros Aristides Matopoulos Saskia Sardesai ix Executive Summary The book incorporates applied research, concepts, and practical experience collected along the 2 years of the NEXT-NET project and is here organized in 10 chapters that have been grouped into three different parts. Part One focuses on the identi fi cation of the trends and related industrial scenarios for the next decade and the analysis of the implications for the Supply Chain (SC) processes and the consequent chal- lenges. Part Two identi fi es the enabling technologies for SCs and maps these technologies to the SCs characteristics to understand where it is more appropriate to use these technologies. Finally, Part Three presents the roadmap for future SCs proposing 10 SCs strategies and the related research and innovation priorities for the full integration of the production and distribution processes; moreover, in this part policy recommendations are provided to support companies facing cross-sectorial and horizontal issues through suitable policy actions. This book is intended and designed for abroad audience that includes practitioners and managers, as well as academics and scientists interested to investigate future scenarios, collaboration mechanisms, and technology scouting for innovation throughout the supply chain. 1 Part One: Trends, Scenarios and Challenges for Future Supply Chains The fi rst chapter “ Megatrends and Trends Shaping Supply Chain Innovation ” pre- sents major megatrends and trends identi fi ed along Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental (PESTLE) dimensions through a sys- tematic literature review and an experts ’ workshop. Companies operate in a macro-environment that is changing considerably due to large, transformative global forces. The wave of these megatrends and trends generates new prospects as well as challenges for the future of SCs and can be used to generate future SC scenarios. 1 The authors are the sole responsible persons for the research work described in this book. EC is not liable for any use that may be done of the information contained therein. xi The second chapter, “ A Methodology for Future Scenario Planning ” , starts from the assumption that to build future visions and prepare companies and institution in developing innovative strategies, it is necessary to consider different possible sce- narios as a forecast of possible developments of future. In the chapter, it is explained the methodology implemented to generate the industrial macro scenarios starting from the identi fi ed trends showing what the surroundings for supply chains might be like in a time horizon of ten years. The methodological framework is based on generating scenarios using a combination of quantitative and qualitative scenario planning methodologies. Close coordination and collaboration between production and logistics guides the underlying scenario design to focus the context on supply chains. Chapter “ Future Scenario Settings for Supply Chains ” describes the six macro scenarios ranging from scenarios with progressive developments where all the PESTLE dimensions seems to be favourable to SC development to regressing or stagnating evolutions. Each of them is shaped by various socio-economic, political, technological and environmental developments. Chapter four “ Scenario-Driven Supply Chain Charaterization Using a Multi- Dimensional Approach ” focuses on describing the characteristics of the SC in each of the six macro-scenarios by following the fi nal stage of the scenario building methodology. SCs for each scenario are characterized in eight dimensions: Products and Services, Supply Chain Paradigm, Sourcing and Distribution, Technology Level, Supply Chain Con fi guration, Manufacturing Systems, Sales Channel, and Sustainability. This helps to understand the SC characteristics for possible future scenarios, in order to know how to respond to threats and take advantage of the opportunities that the next years will bring. The threats and the opportunities are discussed in detail in chapter fi ve “ Unveiling the Challenges of Future Supply Chains: An Explorative Analysis ” that focuses on the identi fi cation of challenges that SCs will most likely face. A preliminary list, obtained from the deep analysis of the macro-scenarios, was validated based on the input from industry stakeholders to assure practical relevance and grounded in reality. The challenges are aggregated into several clusters aiming at providing decision makers with a tool that would enable them to quickly and easily spot the relevant challenges and take proper actions to mitigate any potential risk. Part Two: Enabling Technologies for Future Supply Chains Technologies such as robotics, arti fi cial intelligence, autonomous transport systems, data science, and additive manufacturing, among others, are gradually becoming part of people ’ s and companies ’ daily lives and are changing the manufacturing, process industry and logistics sectors. In the fi rst chapter of second part, “ Technology Scouting to Accelerate Innovation in Supply Chain ” , the most important enabling technologies for supply chains until 2030 are identi fi ed and selected using a technology scouting approach and their implications on future xii Executive Summary supply chains are evaluated using an assessment methodology with different evaluation criteria. Although recent attempts have been made to understand the implications of these technologies on SC management, the relevance of the different technologies in future scenarios is still to be studied. Therefore, the second chapter “ Mapping Enabling Technologies for Supply Chains with Future Scenarios ” aims to fi ll this gap by presenting a technology mapping of enabling technologies based on technology portfolio approach, expert elicitation and literature. The fi nal out- come is the mapping of the enabling technologies to the characteristics of the future European supply chain scenarios as a valuable tool for practitioners and researchers for the design and management of SCs. Part Three: New Pathways to Future Supply Chains The fi rst chapter “ Paths to Innovation in Supply Chains: The Landscape of Future Research ” is the result of an intensive work jointly performed by a wide network of stakeholders from discrete manufacturing, process industry and logistics sectors who put forward a vision to strengthen European Supply Chains for the next decade. A detailed description of the 10 SC strategies identi fi ed as most relevant for next decade is presented with the related research and innovation topics as future developments and steps for the full implementation of the strategies proposing innovative and cutting-edge actions to be implemented based on technological and organisational developments (Fig. 1). Fig. 1 Overall NEXT-NET framework and related components Executive Summary xiii Aiming to investigate the effective implementation of new SC strategies the second chapter of the third part, “ A Journey into the European Supply Chains: Key Industries and Best Practices ” provides a study of multiple cases of excellence among European SCs. It depicts an overview of major structural features of eight key industries for European economy, i.e. Automotive, Aerospace, Fashion, Chemical, IT, Distribution/logistics, Furniture, Food and Beverage analysing structure of the SC and companies. For each industry, case studies were carried out involving well-known companies and a cross-case analysis is reported. Finally, the third chapter “ Policy Recommendations for Supporting Supply Chains with Horizontal Actions ” aims to identify the SC key horizontal issues, as they are cross – sectorial and faced by most companies operating both in production and distribution sectors. The chapter proposes a set of policy recommendations that can support public and private organisations to promote and foster innovation and competitiveness of future European SCs, regarding infrastructure requirements, technological and organisational improvements and regulatory developments nee- ded to set the stage for the European SC for the future. xiv Executive Summary Contents Trends, Scenarios and Challenges for Future Supply Chains Megatrends and Trends Shaping Supply Chain Innovation . . . . . . . . . . 3 Dimitra Kalaitzi, Aristides Matopoulos, Rosanna Fornasiero, Saskia Sardesai, Ana Cristina Barros, S é bastien Balech, and Victoria Muerza A Methodology for Future Scenario Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Saskia Sardesai, Markus Stute, and Josef Kamphues Future Scenario Settings for Supply Chains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Saskia Sardesai, Markus Stute, Rosanna Fornasiero, Dimitra Kalaitzi, Ana Cristina Barros, Cemre Multu, and Victoria Muerza Scenario-Driven Supply Chain Charaterization Using a Multi-Dimensional Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Ana Cristina Barros, Pedro Pinho Senna, Irene Marchiori, Dimitra Kalaitzi, and S é bastien Balech Unveiling the Challenges of Future Supply Chains: An Explorative Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Mustafa Ç a ğ r ı G ü rb ü z, Victoria Muerza, Irene Marchiori, and Andrea Zangiacomi Enabling Technologies for Future Supply Chains Technology Scouting to Accelerate Innovation in Supply Chain . . . . . . 129 Markus Stute, Saskia Sardesai, Matthias Parlings, Pedro Pinho Senna, Rosanna Fornasiero, and S é bastien Balech Mapping Enabling Technologies for Supply Chains with Future Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Pedro Pinho Senna, Markus Stute, Sebastien Balech, and Andrea Zangiacomi xv New Pathways to Future Supply Chains Paths to Innovation in Supply Chains: The Landscape of Future Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 Rosanna Fornasiero, Irene Marchiori, Elena Pessot, Andrea Zangiacomi, Saskia Sardesai, Ana Cristina Barros, Eva Thanous, Ron Weerdmeester, and Victoria Muerza A Journey into the European Supply Chains: Key Industries and Best Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 Elena Pessot, Irene Marchiori, Andrea Zangiacomi, and Rosanna Fornasiero Policy Recommendations for Supporting Supply Chains with Horizontal Actions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 Ricardo Zimmermann, Ana Cristina Barros, Pedro Pinho Senna, Elena Pessot, Irene Marchiori, and Rosanna Fornasiero xvi Contents Trends, Scenarios and Challenges for Future Supply Chains Megatrends and Trends Shaping Supply Chain Innovation Dimitra Kalaitzi, Aristides Matopoulos, Rosanna Fornasiero, Saskia Sardesai, Ana Cristina Barros, Sébastien Balech, and Victoria Muerza Abstract Companies operate in a macro-environment that is changing considerably due to large, transformative global forces namely megatrends and trends. The wave of these megatrends and trends generates new prospects as well as challenges for the future of supply chains. This chapter provides a review of 23 major megatrends and 72 trends identified in multiple dimensions along Political, Economic, Social, D. Kalaitzi ( B ) · A. Matopoulos Department of Engineering Systems & Supply Chain Management, College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Aston University, Aston Triangle, Birmingham B4 7ET, UK e-mail: d.kalaitzi3@aston.ac.uk R. Fornasiero Institute of Intelligent Industrial Technologies and Systems for Advanced Manufacturing, National Council of Research (STIIMA-CNR), Via Alfonso Corti, 12-20133 Milan, Italy e-mail: rosanna.fornasiero@cnr.it Institute of Electronics, Computer and Telecommunication Engineering, National Council of Research (IEIIT-CNR), c/o Università di Padova, via Gradenigo 6/B, 35131 Padova, Italy S. Sardesai Fraunhofer Institute for Material Flow and Logistics, Joseph-von-Fraunhofer-Str. 2-4, 44137 Dortmund, Germany e-mail: saskia.sardesai@iml.fraunhofer.de A. C. Barros INESCT TEC Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering, Technology and Science, Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal e-mail: ana.c.barros@inesctec.pt S. Balech PNO CONSULTANT, Avenue de la Joyeuse Entrée 1, 1040 Brussels, Belgium e-mail: sebastien.balech@gmail.com V. Muerza MIT International Logistics Program, Zaragoza Logistics Center, C/Bari 55, Edificio Náyade 5 (PLAZA), 50197 Saragossa, Spain e-mail: vmuerza@unizar.es University of Zaragoza, Quantitative Methods for Business and Economy, Gran Vía 2, 50005 Saragossa, Spain © The Author(s) 2021 R. Fornasiero et al. (eds.), Next Generation Supply Chains , Lecture Notes in Management and Industrial Engineering, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63505-3_1 3 4 D. Kalaitzi et al. Technological, Legal, and Environmental (PESTLE) dimensions. The results are based on a systematic literature review and an experts’ workshop, and can be used to generate future supply chain scenarios. Keywords Megatrends · Trends · PESTLE analysis · Logistics · Supply chain management · Supply chain scenarios 1 Introduction Megatrends are “large social, economic, political and technological changes [that] are slow to form, and once in place, they influence us for some time” (Kotler 2002, p. 137). Trends, as an indication into a direction of change, are driven by megatrends. For example, aging population is a megatrend and some of its trends are buying habits, and workforce gaps. Megatrends are observed over decades (15 + years) and affect almost all world regions while trends are observed over 5–10 years on specific parts of the world (Pictet asset management 2017). Megatrends (e.g. new digital technologies) have a heavy influence on supply chains and they could impact product, process and network configuration (e.g. Calatayud et al. 2019; Birkel and Hartmann 2019). For example, blockchain tech- nology (which is a trend) could lead to transparency, but it could disrupt the structure of supply chains as some intermediaries may have to be removed and the supply chain finance (Wang et al. 2019). Supply chain finance solutions can also be reshaped and boosted by the use of other technological trends e.g. artificial intelligence, internet of things, and big data analytics (Caniato et al. 2019). Given the presence of these technologies, the role and relevance of supply chain governance mechanisms will be affected; e.g. digital transformation impacts on supply chain collaboration and integration (Barbieri et al. 2019). Companies have to develop a thorough understanding of these changes to avoid unexpected and negative effects and concurrently create opportunities to ensure long term survival. Future scenarios and hypotheses can be developed that will explore about how specific industries might evolve (Gernandt 2012). There are numerous studies (e.g. Gernandt 2012; Seppälä 2016) that have iden- tified several megatrends and trends such as electric vehicles, efficient multi-modal networks (e.g. Speranza et al. 2018), knowledge based development to talent manage- ment (e.g. Bowersox et al. 2000; Stank et al. 2015; Sweeney 2013), additive manu- facturing and information systems (Fawcett and Waller 2014; Kemppainen and Vepsäläinen 2003). There is a lack of state of the art and comprehensive review of the list of megatrends and associated trends in the field of supply chain manage- ment and logistics. Apart from the studies mentioned above, consulting firms such as EY, PWC and KPMG have explored megatrends by frequently mentioning demo- graphic shifts, geopolitical changes and environmental impacts as key megatrends. These studies lack comprehensive and coherent understanding of megatrends with Megatrends and Trends Shaping Supply Chain Innovation 5 political, economic or social megatrends being the center of attention (Malik and Janowska 2018). Thus, the motivation of this study is to identify and verify systematically which megatrends are considered the most influential in this field by researchers and profes- sionals. The purpose of this chapter is to recognize and increase knowledge of the megatrends shaping the future of supply chains and provide a comprehensive list of trends that addresses critical dimensions e.g. political, technological, environmental, and others. Through a systematic literature review, the following research questions intend to be answered in this chapter: RQ1: “What are the megatrends shaping the future of the supply chains?” RQ2: “What are the trends that can be derived from these megatrends shaping the future of supply chains?” From a managerial perspective, this analysis allows companies to build a long- term supply chain strategy that is proactive, rather than reactive, by having a thor- ough understanding of their current position, but also ensuring they have a plan to respond in complex and dynamic environments and reduce perceived uncer- tainty. This research further provides theoretical contribution by filling the literature review gap as a comprehensive list of megatrends and trends that will be iden- tified. Researchers can focus on each of the megatrends and its implications and develop supply chain scenarios. Thus, the results of this chapter will be further used in the next chapters as a basis for future scenarios generation. The remainder of this chapter is organized as follows: Sect. 2 outlines the research design; Sect. 3 presents and discusses the findings of the literature review. Section 4 draws conclusions and discusses future research avenues. 2 Methodology A systematic literature review and a workshop with experts serves to identify relevant megatrends and trends for supply chain management. According to Denyer and Tran- field (2009), the systematic literature review process entails five steps: (1) process question formulation, (2) locating literature, (3) study selection and evaluation, (4) analysis and synthesis, and finally (5) reporting and using the results. The steps are described below, apart from the first step as it has been already discussed in the previous sub-section and the final step, i.e. reporting and using of the results, which is presented in the next sub-section. The search of the studies was conducted from November 2017 to January 2018. The following keywords were used to find the relevant studies: (supply chain manage- ment) OR (logistics) OR (manufacturing) OR (transportation) OR (process manu- facturing) OR (distribution) AND (future supply chain) OR (next generation supply chains) OR (megatrends) OR (trends). Relevant journal papers and book chapters were identified by using the search field “Topic” to screen well-known academic databases namely ABI/INFORM Global, Academic Search Premier (EBSCO), Science Direct, Emerald and Google Scholar.