1 An Open Letter on Fianna Fail’s Poor Poll Numbers There has been a lot of commentary recently on the continued poor poll numbers for Fianna Fáil (the recent Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post had support for the party at 11%) but less commentary on why FF is doing so badly relative to their historical support levels and compared to the larger parties of Sinn Fein and Fine Gael. For that reason, I decided to write down my thoughts on what has gone wrong for the party and what is still going wrong. Full disclaimer: I don’t identify as a FF voter and am not a member of any Irish political party but I do have a keen interest in Irish politics and think I’ll be able to objectively set out an explanation for their current predicament. There are 3 key factors that can explain the long- term decline beyond short-term Government dissatisfaction which is becoming the norm post the 2008/2009 financial crisis: the hangover from the financial crisis itself, changing demographics in the Irish Electorate and FF’s loss of identity. I think what’s often lost in Irish public discourse is that so much of what is happening in Ireland today (the housing crisis and the continued volatility in Irish politics in terms of party support) is a direct hangover from the financial crisis. Its effects are still being felt today. While many argue that the financial crisis shrunk membership of the middle class thus leading to voter backlash at every opportunity (Brexit, Trump etc.) the effects of it in Ireland are not discussed as much as they should be. (Sidenote: obviously there was more at play that led the British electorate to vote for Brexit such as sovereignty and immigration and other factors that led to Trump’s election but you get the point). All three factors, hangover from the 08 crash, changing Irish demographics and FF’s lack of identity are intertwined. To understand poll numbers and party support you have to first understand the Irish electorate and that it is made up of Liberals and Conservatives from a social viewport and comprised of the economic have and have-nots. I’m going to argue in the text ahead that FF’s failure to understand what it stands for is allowing it to be outflanked on all major issues important to various parts of the electorate. Let’s start with Sinn Fein. The party draws its support primarily from those with strong Republican leanings (those to whom a United Ireland is important), those who feel let down by the more established parties for whatever reason (we can argue those parties are the ones who have served in Government previously so FF, FG, The Labour party and The Green party) 2 and those who feel economically left behind. In a nutshell, housing (or the lack thereof) has played a huge part in the rise in support for Sinn Fein. I don’t believe that the Irish electorate has suddenly become more Republican compared to the Irish electorate of the 1990’s or the noughties. The housing crisis in Ireland whether it’s house prices now being a large multiple compared to the average industrial wage or insanely high rents in Dublin has resulted in many younger and non-homeowner voters feeling they have nothing to lose by voting for Sinn Fein. Another disclaimer: I have never voted for SF in an election but more and more people, my friends, family members etc. often say to me about housing ‘Darragh, I’ve got nothing to lose by voting for Sinn Fein. We might as well give them a shot (in power) and see if they do any better.’ I completely understand this logic. In fact, one compliment I will pay to Sinn Fein is that they are smart because they know housing is *the* issue that led them to win the most votes in the 2020 Irish General Election (SF didn’t run enough candidates and won 36 seats compared to FF’s 37 but they won’t make that mistake again) and will led to further electoral gains whenever the next Irish General Election comes. Just to clarify: I say SF are smart because every time I listen in to proceedings in the Oireachtas (The Irish Parliament) Mary Lou McDonald and other SF spokespeople raise housing as an issue. While people like Matt Carthy TD might say more and more people are raising the prospect of a United Ireland with them I think primarily housing is driven the gains in SF support. In summary on SF, they are outflanking FF by offering a stronger brand of Republicanism and hovering up the votes of young voters unable to buy a home. My next point is something that I feel a lot of older votes don’t understand about younger votes and will probably upset anyone affected by the troubles but the truth is younger votes don’t care about what the IRA did previously. A lot of older voters say to me they wouldn’t vote SF because they ‘remember the troubles’ – in all honesty, whether or not the IRA did or did not do much of what they reportedly did in the 70’s, 80’s etc. does not change affordability of house prices and so to younger votes this information is irrelevant. Next, I want to turn to support for Fine Gael. Disclaimer: I’m also not a FG voter because I think they are underestimating the ability of private developers to solve the housing crisis. While above I’ve outlined how a chunk of the Irish electorate dreams of a SF led Government (a United Ireland and perhaps a more radical approach to housing?) there is a large part of the Irish electorate that fears this. 3 SF have been open about increasing taxation for higher income earners. For the more affluent parts of the Irish electorate or those on the way up (those with a large amount of assets, higher incomes etc.) preserving their wealth and not risking growth prospects for the Irish Economy are their concern. These voters, the anyone but SF voters will vote for FG. A homeowner actually said something very interesting to me recently. This person and his partner recently bought a 3-bed semi detached house in Kildare North for roughly €360-380k and said to me ‘Darragh, the last thing I want is a SF Government building thousands of houses and reducing the value of my house’ – it was interesting point. In fact, recently I think FF TD’s made a strategic error on a possible future Government with SF. A lot of FF TD’s said they would be open to this. If you’re a moderate, centrist voter hearing FF TD’s openly contemplate on forming a future coalition with SF you’re going to say to yourself, ‘Thanks for letting me know FF. I’m going to vote for FG.’ I’ve seen this sentiment expressed recently on social media and in a conversation I had with my friends Dad. In fact, talking to people is the best way to sense what the Irish electorate are feeling. I knew in December 2019 that FG were going to lose the election based on just two conversations I had with people. A primary school teacher near my house raised the lack of infrastructure in Ireland as a big concern to her. I don’t know her politics, I sense she was in the ‘not sure who to vote for’ camp but this comment struck me as interesting. A week later at a work Christmas lunch I was seated beside a senior manager in a large US multinational. He said the same thing. He said Ireland had no houses, no underground metro and German citizens were laughing at him when he tried to hire them and encourage them to relocate to Ireland. ‘Why? You’ve no metro and no houses. No thanks!’. I knew then housing would sink FG. We’ve spoken above about the economics: have nothing to lose vote for SF, have something to lose vote for FG. But there’s another interesting part of the electoral conundrum facing FF and it is the rise of the Liberal voter and the fall of the Conservative voter. This isn’t my opinion, consider the facts: Ireland used to be a very conservative country in terms of women’s rights, gay rights and the power of the Catholic Church. This is where FF have another huge problem: they’re not liberal enough for many of my friends who are pro-choice and in favour of marriage equality while they’re now not conservative enough for those against. 4 A FF party supporter, member or elected representative might think the paragraph above as being unfair but let me explain from the point of view of Liberal voters and Conservative voters. Liberal voters (predominantly younger, LGBT and female but not exclusively) were very involved both emotionally and electorally with issues such as the 2015 Marriage Equality Referendum and the 2018 Referendum on repealing the 8th amendment. Many got involved with politics for the first time: people who had never expressed political views on social media vocal in their support, sharing their own stories and experiences, asking and encourage family members to vote Yes (in both campaigns) and some delivering leaflets and knocking on doors. You have to understand that while reading this now in 2021 Ireland is a liberal country only a few years ago gay people couldn’t marry and women facing some very difficult circumstances had to go to the UK for abortions. These referenda brought out some very real stories and evoked raw emotion for a number of gay people and women, and of course straight men who are the father’s, brothers, uncles, friends etc of these voters. While it is true that FF campaigned for Yes in both referendum to these voters FF wasn’t involved enough. Enthusiasm amongst the 2011-2016 FF Parliamentary Party for the 2015 Marriage Equality Referendum was lukewarm at best and Senator Averil Power left the party as a result. I want to quote some of her words: ‘the vast majority of the party’s public representatives refused to campaign for it. In fact, I was the only TD or Senator who did a proper canvass for the referendum in their constituency. Some Fianna Fáil representatives declared publicly that they were voting No. Worse still, others told me they would be voting Yes but were afraid of campaigning for it in case they would lose votes. Fianna Fáil’s overall approach to the referendum symbolized everything that is wrong with the party. Fianna Fáil lacks vision, courage and leadership.’ I want to be clear here I am not criticizing FF here. I’m simply making the point that although they supported a YES vote in 2015 Liberal voters gave them no credit and conservative voters lost an electoral home. The same can be true of the 2018 referendum where again while FF campaigned for YES a large part of their parliamentary party were against. These means that to a young, liberal female voter for example they’d be more inclined to vote for Labour, The 5 Social Democrats, The Green party, FG or SF over FF. While for a socially conservative voter, I’m not sure where their votes can go. The point I’m trying to make in this letter is this: FF are being outflanked by SF amongst Republicans who want a United Ireland. While personally, I’m comfortable with the Michael Martin brand of Republicanism of consensus I’m not the kind of voter FF needs to be worried about because I care more about housing and the economy (I am not alone). FF are also being outflanked by SF amongst more working class communities (SF are against water charges and property taxes) and amongst younger voters to whom housing is unaffordable. FF is being outflanked by FG among wealthier votes. The points I’ve made above are obvious when you look at the Dublin constituencies: the affluent South County Dublin is top of the list for FG to makes gains at the next election while for SF it is in the more working class areas such as Dublin South Central, Dublin North West etc. FF is also outflanked on social liberal issues by the 3 smaller left of centre parties Labour, Social Democrats and Greens. (Side note: I expect the Green party to lose most their seats at the next General Election, I expect Labour’s poll numbers to go nowhere and I expect that the Soc Dems will continue to gain steadily in support. Note: I also don’t identify as a voter for any of these parties due to housing but that’s for another day). When I was 16 years old in 2007 I saw Bertie Ahern and FF returned for a 3rd term. The Celtic Tiger was still going and Ireland was a very wealth country. FF got about 40% of the votes in that election. It is no exaggeration for me to say that pretty much everyone I spoke to voted for FF. Most my teachers, most my neighbours, literally all of my friends parents at the time. My family was a bit more split with some votes for Labour, one neighbour who voted for FG and the Progressive Democrats. In fact, there was one teacher I was convinced voted Labour but it turned out he actually voted for Independent candidates. A few of my teachers in secondary school gave me abuse because I said I’d vote Labour if I could. ‘They’ll wreck the economy!’ is what I was told. Then, the financial crisis hit. Ireland’s ability to increased Government spending while cutting taxation was above and the age of austerity began. In 2011, FG and Labour swept to power. There is thing a voter said to me in 2008 that always stood with me. She was a tall, attractive mother of three living in South County Dublin. Her husband was no longer going to vote FF but she told she would no matter what. The reason? 6 She remembered a FG/Labour Government trying to put VAT on children’s shoes. Why do I bring this up? The point is certain voters remember things and never forget despite the saying the electorate has a short memory I no longer think this is true. But with the international recession and financial crisis, FF’s reputation for fiscal management was ruined, I think permanently. Austerity, negative equity, bank bailouts, unemployment, mass emigration and a lack of confidence. I don’t bring this up to rub it in with FF voters but to point out that the financial crisis in itself was awful in terms of its scale, speed of impact and duration (the recovery was long, slow and not felt by many). The fact that Ireland was a small open economy with excess borrowing did not help. Now, the point of this letter is to highlight how the financial crisis wrecked FF. But arguably it also destroyed Ireland’s 2 ½ party system although recently there are signs it has been refigured with SF & FG now dominant while FF replaces Labour as the ½ party. The years post 2011 brought in fiscal discipline which mean cuts to public sector salaries and more. Fast forward to 2016 and the hangover of the financial crisis claimed it’s next political victim: The Labour party. Having campaigned in 2011 with ‘Gilmore for Taoiseach’ and ‘Labour’s way of Frankfurt’s way’ the ECB reigned supreme. Labour had an awful general election in 2016 going from 37 seats in the previous election to 7. Labour hasn’t recovered 5 years on from that election. With Labour’s implosion so severe it masked the poor performance FG had: a swing in support of 10.6% against and a loss of 26 seats. This result was months of chaos as no party could form a Government. This is where FF was punished in many respects for trying to do the right thing: provide Ireland with a Government. ‘Confidence and Supply’ was born with FG and the Independent Alliance forming a minority Government with FF not voting against the Government on budgetary matters or confidence issues. It lasted 4 years. This is where the hangover of the financial crisis put FF into a corner. Having presided over years of cuts and an eventual recover Labour were decimated and FG could not form a Government. FF had little choice in my opinion to enter the confidence and supply arrangement. What was the alternative? Another general election? While FF gained 24 or seats and were back up to 44 seats entering the arrangement made Sinn Fein the real and only credible lead opposition party to the Government. Over the past 5 years as Ireland battled with the financial markets and escaping recession barely any houses had been built. 7 The years of 2016 saw house building return from a low base but not enough to make housing affordable. With it, the seeds were sown for SF’s electoral success in 2020. Which brings us to now. The Covid-19 pandemic still rages on a year later in April 2021. While the effects of the financial crisis were/still are being felt in terms of the impact of housing and voter discontent the fallout from Covid-19 is likely to exacerbate these problems: the pandemic has resulted in more or less a lost year of house building. That said, I’m optimistic on the expected economic recovery: once herd immunity is reached ‘animal spirits’ of people want to live life again will lead to increased consumer spending (this is the ‘K-shaped recovery’ – many in Ireland have not lost jobs and have been forced to save while hundreds of thousands are out of work). The bad news for the Government is I think it’s now next to mission impossible to have the housing issue fixed by the next General Election which could hurt Government support. The latest it can be held is early 2025. 2021 might see 10,000 units or so built which would only give the Irish Government 3 years at a maximum to solve an issue that has been gradually getting worse over the past number of years. The question then is, what can FF do to try recover? We’ve spoken about the changing demographics in a younger more liberal electorate, housing increasing the SF vote (housing I’ll say again: a hangover from the 08 crisis) and FF’s loss of identity. FF can’t turn back the clocks and stop the financial crisis or stop demographic changes but they can do three crucial things: fix the issues facing the Irish electorate (the economy, housing, transport, health, climate etc.), reflect on what it is they actually stand for, decide on it and communicate that to the electorate and lastly: show some discipline. Having continued briefings and open speculation in the media by TD’s such as Barry Cowen against Martin when he is trying to lead the country through a pandemic and the economic fallout is not a good look. There is one thing any politician or party needs to understand about the average voter: they aspire to have a decent job, own their own home and be left in peace to live their life and get one sun holiday in a year. In a nutshell, that’s what they want. The secret is this: understand the aspirations of voters and help them reach them through good public policy. If FF can be seen post this pandemic to be putting forward positive policy solutions and affecting real change in terms of the economy, housing, education reforms etc. then they may still have a chance. They have been written off before but this time it honestly does feel different. 8 Housing, health, the economy and the looming pensions crisis will be the key issues. Other quality of life issues such as transport, education, climate change will also be in the mix. Only real vision and courage on these issues would capture the imagination of the Irish people but the truth is I’m starting to think with the housing situation getting worse there is an increasing inevitability in the words ‘Taoiseach McDonald.’ Whether people agree or not with the contents of this note one thing we can all agree is that the next leader of FF will have a daunting task ahead of them. By Darragh O’Neill (just a private Irish citizen)
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