Maybe now is the time to be afraid Niclas Vent This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. Niclas Vent Published 11.53 Updated 12.56 Can Russia attack NATO ? Yes. But the crucial thing is what we do with that insight. I know that the world right now often seems far too dark. I also know that many people are therefore taking in the news less and less. It is a problem that for me as a security reporter becomes particularly acute in situations like this – when the alarms are now ringing that a Russian invasion of a NATO country may actually be close. The media should not be unreasonably alarmist. We should not scare, or create unnecessary concern or outrage. But more than anything else, we must tell it like it is. The truth is that the situation right now is very, very serious – and that it could quickly get worse than most people imagine. The war in Ukraine is going badly for Russia, but there are no signs that the men in the Kremlin are planning to give up. The risk is rather that they will choose the opposite path – and raise the stakes. Money, weapons and supplies from Europe are keeping Ukraine under their wing. As long as the support continues, Putin cannot win the war. So it must be broken. The risk is that Russia will raise the stakes, writes Niclas Vent. Photo: Alexander Kazakov / AP / TT Russia's hybrid war against us is ultimately about dividing and creating fear. We should turn a deaf ear to ourselves, and start listening to the extremists who, behind a mask of peace and consensus, are always prepared to choose the submission of their fellow human beings. The campaign has not yet worked. That is why it is now escalating sharply, faster than we in the West can keep up. The number of suspected hybrid attacks has skyrocketed in recent months – but we still tend to see each case as an individual. Investigations must be carried out, perpetrators brought to justice and all reasonable doubt swept aside. There could certainly be reasons that have nothing to do with Russia for two men throwing firebombs near German defence companies, for the Milrem drone company in Estonia to be set on fire or for an ammunition depot in Bulgaria to go up in flames. But the individual trees that do not fit the pattern must not obscure the forest. What we know is enough. The failed drone attack on Leipzig airport could just as easily have resulted in fatalities. We must assume that a deadly attack can happen at any time. We humans are easy to adapt to. That is our great strength – and our great weakness. The Russian invasion in 2022 shook things up, but now war has become everyday life. Most of us probably assume that it will continue over there, relatively predictable and limited. What you and I have to take in is that it doesn't have to stay that way. A building in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, is in flames after Russian drone attacks on Monday. A building in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, is in flames after Russian drone attacks on Monday. Photo: Kateryna Klochko / AP / TT Russia is feeling its way. If the political goals are achieved with attacks in the gray zone, that's good, but if that doesn't work, there are other alternatives. Ultimately, it could be a full-fledged military attack - against a NATO country. Such an attack will not involve conquering a lot of land or forcing us to our knees. Russia does not have such resources. Sweden will not be occupied. It will not happen tomorrow either. Ester and Lett, closest to the threat, urge calm. An immediate attack is not imminent. But an attack would put things to the test. That might be enough. It forces each country to choose. Are NATO's promises of collective defense really valid, and will cohesion survive the test ? The US was already on its way out of Europe. Now both weapons stockpiles and political capital are depleted by a so-far pointless war against Iran, while the world economy is hanging by the ropes. If Russia mobilizes, creates a political crisis in a border area and uses it as a pretext for a military operation, we don't know what will happen. Some countries, like Slovakia, will resort to all possible and impossible excuses to stay out. Anyone who claims to know what Donald Trump will do is lying. When it gets hot, it will happen quickly. Our politicians will have fateful decisions to make, in the worst crisis Swedish leaders have faced in over 80 years. Then we citizens must understand the efforts, stand behind the measures and be grounded enough to stick together, do our part, help each other. The worst doesn't have to happen, maybe it never will – but if it does, we must have thought about all this beforehand. That's why I'm writing this. Putin is counting on our fear. That it will passivize us and subdue us. We must face him with courage. Not by burying our heads in the sand, but by understanding what's going on, taking in reality and building the strength to face it. It's okay to be afraid. The only thing that is indefensible is not being prepared.