4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 3/124 S ee al so : G u lf P r e s ence U p da t e ( h ttps :// p f deba t e us or g / bl o g /2020/04/09/ g u lf - pr e s ence - up da t e s /) G l o bal n u clea r c o nf ro n t a t i o n be tw een sup e rpow e rs poss ible D imi tr i K S ime s , pu bli s he r o f t he N a t i o nal I n t e r e st , i s P r e s iden t and CEO o f t he C en t e r f or t he N a t i o nal I n t e r e st , A pr il 24 , 2020, T he P e r fec t S tor m , h ttps :// na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / p e r fec t - stor m -147791 W HA T T HE U ni t ed S t a t e s c o nf ro n ts , t hen , i s a m o men t o f trut h U nf ortu na t el y , t he r e i s s can t e v idence t ha t w e a r e lea r ning le sso n s ab out t he im p e r a t i v e o f str a t egic t hinking I t ʼ s enc our aging t ha t T ru m p p la y ed a ke y ro le in hel p ing to r each a us ef u l , if u nce rt ain , Articles 131 KB April 16, 2020 2:36 pm Hegemony Collapse Bad.docx (https://pf.debateus.org/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php?action=outofthebox- download&OutoftheBoxpath=%2Fhegemony%20collapse%20bad.docx&lastpath=%2F&a ccount_id=dbid:AADl- 2kwkskY3fNZ5rF4SPEYXBKJu28EjMQ&listtoken=3758c5bd2fdf4e314fd1ca30d672c5bb ) 289 KB April 16, 2020 2:36 pm O ff shoreBalancing.docx (https://pf.debateus.org/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php?action=outofthebox- download&OutoftheBoxpath=%2Fo ff shorebalancing.docx&lastpath=%2F&account_id=d bid:AADl- 2kwkskY3fNZ5rF4SPEYXBKJu28EjMQ&listtoken=3758c5bd2fdf4e314fd1ca30d672c5bb ) 44 KB April 16, 2020 2:36 pm NATO Good.docx (https://pf.debateus.org/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php?action=outofthebox- download&OutoftheBoxpath=%2Fnato%20good.docx&lastpath=%2F&account_id=dbid: AADl- 2kwkskY3fNZ5rF4SPEYXBKJu28EjMQ&listtoken=3758c5bd2fdf4e314fd1ca30d672c5bb ) Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 4/124 deal in r ed u cing f or eign o il pro d u c t i o n w i t h R uss ia and S a u di A r abia L e ss enc our aging a r e t he str iden t vo ice s in C o ng r e ss and el s e w he r e ab out t he need to pu ni s h C hina f or t he c oro na v i rus , w hich wou ld lead to a r e su m pt i o n o f t he tr ade w a r a t t he lea st opportu ne m o men t O ld habi ts a r e d y ing ha r d : li tt le a tt en t i o n i s being p aid to a v e rt ing a cl os e r alignmen t be tw een B eijing and M os c ow I n addi t i o n , t he n u clea r a r m s - c o n tro l r egime i s c o lla ps ing and s ign s o f anim os i ty be tw een g r ea t pow e rs a r e g row ing T he p e r il s o f an outr igh t c o nflic t s h ou ld n ot be w i s hed a w a y f or t he c urr en t p andemic dem o n str a t e s h ow t he u n t hinkable can qu ickl y o cc ur NA T O e xp an s i o n inc r ea s ed t he t h r ea t f ro m R uss ia D imi tr i K S ime s , pu bli s he r o f t he N a t i o nal I n t e r e st , i s P r e s iden t and CEO o f t he C en t e r f or t he N a t i o nal I n t e r e st , A pr il 24 , 2020, T he P e r fec t S tor m , h ttps :// na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / p e r fec t - stor m -147791 A me r ica ʼ s en t i r e syst em o f alliance s , p a rt ic u la r l y NA T O , a pp ea rs inc r ea s ingl y o b so le t e in t hei r c urr en t f or m A v a r ie ty o f st a t e s men and e xp e rts , m ost n ot abl y G e or ge F K ennan , w a r ned t ha t NA T O e xp an s i o n in to t he B al t ic s wou ld tur n R uss ia , a na t i o n af t e r t he S ov ie t c o lla ps e w a s eage r to j o in f or ce s w i t h t he W e st , in to a dange rous ad v e rs a ry T he U ni t ed S t a t e s did n ot heed t he s e ca ut i o n s and in st ead c r ea t ed a s elf - f u lfilling prop hec y in w hich NA T O ʼ s e xp an s i o n i ro nicall y enhanced t he t h r ea t pos ed b y R uss ia to t he v e ry st a t e s i t sou gh t to g u a r an t ee T he s e alliance s c urr en t l y s e rv e pr ima r il y to en t angle t he U ni t ed S t a t e s in t he in t e r necine di sput e s o f E urop ean na t i o n s A s G e or ge W a s hing to n pr e s cien t l y a s ked in hi s fa r e w ell add r e ss , “ W h y , b y in t e rw ea v ing our de st in y w i t h t ha t o f an y p a rt o f E urop e , en t angle our p eace and prosp e r i ty in t he to il s o f E urop ean ambi t i o n , r i v al s hi p , in t e r e st , h u m or or ca pr ice ?” D em o c r ac y pro d u ced a ma ss i v e in t e r na t i o nal backla s h Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 5/124 D imi tr i K S ime s , pu bli s he r o f t he N a t i o nal I n t e r e st , i s P r e s iden t and CEO o f t he C en t e r f or t he N a t i o nal I n t e r e st , A pr il 24 , 2020, T he P e r fec t S tor m , h ttps :// na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / p e r fec t - stor m -147791 R ef or ming A me r ican f or eign po lic y r e qu i r e s n ot hing le ss t han t he r ec o gni t i o n t ha t t he libe r al wor ld or de r — t he ba tt le c ry o f gl o bal eli t e s o n b ot h s ide s o f t he A t lan t ic — w a s la r gel y a m yt h root ed in ill us i o n s and d ou ble st anda r d s S ince t he t ime s o f A r i stot le , t he r e ha s al w a ys been a deba t e ov e r t he r ela t i v e me r i ts o f dem o c r ac y and a uto c r ac y and w ha t c o mbina t i o n o f t he two i s t he m ost a ppropr ia t e f or a p a rt ic u la r so cie ty u nde r p a rt ic u la r ci r c u m st ance s R ende r ing dem o c r ac y pro m ot i o n o ne o f A me r ica ʼ s defining f or eign po lic y o bjec t i v e s w a s al w a ys b ou nd to c r ea t e a pow e r f u l in t e r na t i o nal backla s h I t en sur ed t ha t C hina and R uss ia wou ld c o mbine again st A me r ican in t e r e sts and f or ced t he U ni t ed S t a t e s and E urop e to w hi t e w a s h mi s beha v i or b y t hei r allie s a s t he y pro claim l oy al ty to t he ne w A t lan t ici st hegem o n M u l t ila t e r al gl o bal c oop e r a t i o n needed to so l v e ca ro na v i rus r i K S ime s , pu bli s he r o f t he N a t i o nal I n t e r e st , i s P r e s iden t and CEO o f t he C en t e r f or t he N a t i o nal I n t e r e st , A pr il 24 , 2020, T he P e r fec t S tor m , h ttps :// na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / p e r fec t - stor m -147791 ONE LE SS ON w e s h ou ld lea r n i s t he pr imac y o f sov e r eign st a t e s T he n ot i o n t ha t sov e r eign ty i s out da t ed i s i ts elf out da t ed I t i s p a t en t l y o b v i ous t ha t t he p andemic i s pro m pt ing g ov e r nmen ts to f o c us o n t hei r na t i o nal in t e r e sts fi rst O nl y o n t ha t ba s i s can t he y t hen s eek to engage in in t e r na t i o nal c oop e r a t i o n H ow e v e r , t he g ov e r nmen ts o f t he g r ea t pow e rs s h ou ld ackn ow ledge t hei r c o llec t i v e c u l p abili ty f or failing to iden t if y gl o bal pr i or i t ie s and in st ead t aking im pru den t st e ps t ha t di v e rt ed a tt en t i o n f ro m i ssu e s o f maj or gl o bal c o nce r n in fa vor o f n o n - e ss en t ial and outr igh t ca v alie r pursu i ts E v en le ss j ust ifiable w a s t he nea r de stru c t i o n o f t he in t e r na t i o nal syst em de s igned to c r ea t e and enf or ce a ru le s - ba s ed mechani s m o f in t e r na t i o nal tr ade , and t he w ea po ni z a t i o n o f gl o bal c o mme r ce b y st a t e s to pro m ot e t hei r u nila t e r al in t e r e sts , Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 6/124 su bjec t i v e v al u e s , or d o me st ic po li t ical ambi t i o n s I n st i tut i o n s like t he U N , W or ld T r ade O r gani z a t i o n , and W or ld H eal t h O r gani z a t i o n ( W HO ) a r e n ot a p anacea f or wor ld ill s B ut t he y can prov ide us ef u l , if limi t ed , s ignal s ahead o f trou ble and s e rv e a s s h o ck ab sor be rs f or in t e r na t i o nal di s ag r eemen ts A s H en ry K i ss inge r ha s el oqu en t l y e xpr e ss ed in t he W all S tr ee t J our nal , “ N o c ou n try , n ot e v en t he U S ., can in a pur el y na t i o nal eff ort ov e r c o me t he v i rus A dd r e ss ing t he nece ss i t ie s o f t he m o men t m ust u l t ima t el y be c oup led w i t h a gl o bal c o llab or a t i v e v i s i o n and pro g r am I f w e cann ot d o b ot h in t andem , w e w ill face t he worst o f each I t i s n ot a s t h ou gh w e c ou ldn ʼ t ha v e s een t hi s c o ming I n t he p a st tw en ty y ea rs al o ne , t he r e w e r e t h r ee maj or gl o bal out b r eak s o f deadl y v i rus e s : S A RS f ro m 2002–2004, H 1 N 1 in 2009–2010, and E b o la f ro m 2013–2016. N o ne o f t he s e out b r eak s c r ea t ed t he typ e o f gl o bal de v a st a t i o n w e c urr en t l y face , a s t he s e v i rus e s lacked t he sp ecific c o mbina t i o n o f le t hali ty , ea s e o f tr an s fe r , dela y ed manife st a t i o n o f sy m pto m s , and t he lack o f v accine s and w ide spr ead t e st ing inf r a stru c tur e w hich all ow ed t he c oro na v i rus to t h r i v e B ut each e p idemic made clea r t he prosp ec t f or gl o bal di s a st e r W or ld i s bec o ming n o n po la r D r e z ne r e t al , M a y / J u ne 2020, DANIEL W D R E Z NE R i s P ro fe ssor o f I n t e r na t i o nal P o li t ic s a t t he F le t che r S ch oo l o f L a w and D i p l o mac y a t T u f ts U ni v e rs i ty R ONALD R K R EB S i s B e v e r l y and R icha r d F ink P ro fe ssor in t he L ibe r al A rts and P ro fe ssor o f P o li t ical S cience a t t he U ni v e rs i ty o f M inne sot a R ANDALL S CH W ELLE R i s P ro fe ssor o f P o li t ical S cience and D i r ec tor o f t he P ro g r am f or t he S tu d y o f R eali st F or eign P o lic y a t O hi o S t a t e U ni v e rs i ty m F or eign A ffai rs , T he E nd o f G r and S tr a t eg y : A me r ica M ust T hink S mall , h ttps :// www f or eignaffai rs c o m / a rt icle s / wor ld /2020-04-13/ end - g r and - str a t eg y F inall y , t he diff us i o n o f pow e r t h rou gh out t he in t e r na t i o nal syst em i s c r ea t ing a n o n po la r wor ld M an y po in t to t he r i s e o f C hina and ot he r c o m p e t i tors to s a y t ha t t he wor ld i s r e tur ning to m u l t i po la r i ty ( or to bi po la r i ty w i t hin a m or e m u l t i po la r s e tt ing ), b ut t ha t v ie w u nde rst a t e s t he t ec to nic s hif t c urr en t l y u nde rw a y I n t e r na t i o nal r ela t i o n s w ill n o l o nge r be d o mina t ed b y o ne , two , or e v en s e v e r al g r ea t pow e rs B eca us e Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 7/124 ec o n o mic and mili t a ry pow e r n o l o nge r y ield infl u ence a s r eliabl y a s t he y o nce did , t he top d o g s ha v e l ost t hei r bi t e T he w eak and t he migh ty su ffe r t he s ame p a r al ys i s and enj oy t he s ame f r eed o m o f ac t i o n M or e ov e r , ne w ac tors , f ro m l o cal mili t ia s to n o ng ov e r nmen t al or gani z a t i o n s to la r ge c orpor a t i o n s , each poss e ss ing and e x e rt ing v a r i ous kind s o f pow e r , inc r ea s ingl y c o m p e t e w i t h st a t e s R ela t i v el y fe w st a t e s r e pr e s en t ed in t he U N can claim a m o n opo l y o n f or ce w i t hin t hei r t e rr i tor ial b or de rs V i o len t n o n st a t e ac tors a r e n o l o nge r min or p la y e rs E t hnic g roups , w a r l or d s , yout h gang s , t e rror i sts , mili t ia s , in sur gen ts , and tr an s na t i o nal c r iminal or gani z a t i o n s — all a r e r edefining pow e r ac ross t he gl o be T he s e change s in pow e r a r e pro d u cing a wor ld ma r ked b y en tropy A wor ld popu la t ed b y d oz en s o f pow e r cen t e rs w ill prov e e xtr emel y diffic u l t to na v iga t e and c o n tro l I n t he ne w gl o bal di sor de r , e v en c ou n tr ie s w i t h ma ss i v e ec o n o mie s and mili t a r ie s ma y n ot be able to ge t ot he rs to d o w ha t t he y w a n t I t i s e ss en t iall y im poss ible f or m o de r n st a t e s , n o ma tt e r h ow mili t a r il y and po li t icall y pow e r f u l , to infl u ence v i o len t g roups t ha t prosp e r in u ng ov e r ned sp ace s or o nline N ot o nl y d o su ch ac tors o ffe r n o clea r t a r ge t to t h r ea t en or de stroy , b ut man y a r e al so m ot i v a t ed b y n o nneg ot iable c o nce r n s , su ch a s t he e st abli s hmen t o f a cali p ha t e or t hei r ow n s e p a r a t e st a t e W ors e st ill , v i o lence i s f or man y a sour ce o f so cial c o he s i o n C hina i s a tot ali t a r ian t h r ea t M achad o , A pr il 23, 2020, A rt h ur M achad o i s t he C incinna t i R egi o nal V ice P r e s iden t f or a b us ine ss anal ys i s fi r m , h ttps :// na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / china - u l t ima t e - ge opo li t ical - p a p e r - t ige r - and - ame r ica - m ust - challenge - i t -147326, C hina I s t he U l t ima t e G e opo li t ical P a p e r T ige r A nd A me r ica M ust C hallenge I t T he W e st e r n W or ld ʼ s a tt em pt to b r ing C hina in to t he wor ld o f D em o c r a t ic na t i o n s us ing ec o n o mic incen t i v e s ha s failed T he lai ss e z - fai r e a ppro ach fa vor ed b y t he W e st ha s r e v ealed C hina and i ts leade rs hi p d o n ot in t end to all ow t hei r c ou n try to en t e r t he m o de r n e r a o f p e rso nal f r eed o m A l t h ou gh C hina ha s emb r aced m o de r n ec o n o mic s and t he ad v ance o f t echn o l o g y t hi s ha s n ot led to t he ad opt i o n o f a m o de r n po li t ical and h u man - r igh ts ide o l o g y I f an yt hing C hina ʼ s r ejec t i o n o f indi v id u al h u man Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 8/124 r igh ts ha s g row n e v en m or e ab us i v e a s i t suppr e ss ed inf or ma t i o n ab out t he c oro na v i rus , p lace s ov e r o ne milli o n M us lim , U igh urs , in t hinl y di s g u i s ed c o ncen tr a t i o n cam ps , and ad opts a c o m put e r - d r i v en so cial r a t ing and in t e r nal spy syst em t ha t p e rs ec ut e s i ts ow n ci t i z en s r e str ic t ing e v e ryt hing f ro m t he indi v id u al r igh t o f tr a v el to j o b prosp ec ts and w ha t c o n su me r pro d u c ts t he u n wort h y can b uy A s C hina oppr e ss e s i ts ow n p e op le , i t ha s a tt acked T ai w an ʼ s f r ee and op en elec t i o n s and e x e rt ed u n pr eceden t ed c o n tro l ov e r in t e r na t i o nal and m u l t ina t i o nal en t i t ie s b r inging or gani z a t i o n s r anging f ro m t he NBA , U be r , and e v en a wor ld w ide t echn o l o gical behem ot h like G oo gle , to heel I f t he U ni t ed S t a t e s st a ys t he c ours e , and , w ha t us ed to be kn ow n a s t he f r ee wor ld , can put a s ide i ts p e tty po li t ical machina t i o n s , t hen t he C hine s e g o al o f wor ld ec o n o mic , mili t a ry and po li t ical d o minance can be stopp ed T he U ni t ed S t a t e s i s challenging C hina f or t he fi rst t ime s ince R icha r d N i xo n op ened t he d oor to C hine s e ec o n o mic e xp an s i o n in t he s e v en t ie s T hi s challenge ha s s h ow n us t ha t C hina i s a p a p e r t ige r and i t w ill ne v e r ha v e a g r ea t e r effec t o n t he wor ld t han i t d o e s n ow if w e st a y t he c ours e H ad t he po li t ical oppos i t i o n been le ss v ici ous and u n r elen t ing and if U S leade rs can u nif y o n f or eign po lic y and tr ade , a s i t ha s in t he p a st , t hen t he W e st wou ld be in an e v en be tt e r pos i t i o n to c o n tro l X i J in p ing ʼ s a tt em pt to a ss e rt C hine s e hegem o n y t hen i t i s n ow C hina i s n ot a mili t a ry t h r ea t and c ou ld be c ut o ff ec o n o micall y if i t engaged in agg r e ss i o n M achad o , A pr il 23, 2020, A rt h ur M achad o i s t he C incinna t i R egi o nal V ice P r e s iden t f or a b us ine ss anal ys i s fi r m , h ttps :// na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / china - u l t ima t e - ge opo li t ical - p a p e r - t ige r - and - ame r ica - m ust - challenge - i t -147326, C hina I s t he U l t ima t e G e opo li t ical P a p e r T ige r A nd A me r ica M ust C hallenge I t C hina ʼ s mili t a ry str eng t h i s al so ov e r bl ow n O v e r l y r egimen t ed and i so la t ed , i t ha s su b st anda r d land and ai r f or ce s and li tt le str a t egic na v al pow e r or a na v al tr adi t i o n o n w hich to b u ild o ne C e rt ainl y n ot a na t i o n an y c ou n try wou ld w an t to in v ade , t he n a rrow tr ade rout e s leading to C hine s e ports mean U S na v al f or ce s c ou ld bl o ckade and stop C hine s e agg r e ss i o n b y s ea and i t i s u nlikel y , e v en w i t h i ts Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 9/124 o b so le t e and u nde r f u nded f or ce s , R uss ia wou ld be u nable to stop C hine s e agg r e ss i o n to t he w e st O il , t he lifebl oo d o f i ts ec o n o m y , c ou ld be stopp ed fa r f ro m t he C hine s e c o a st and na v al e x i t p a t h w a ys out o f C hina m ust p a ss b y maj or U ni t ed S t a t e s ʼ mili t a ry in st alla t i o n s t h rou gh out t he P acific A b s en t an u ne xp ec t ed surpr i s e , or a n u clea r a tt ack , i n t he e v en t o f w a r i t i s u nlikel y an y C hine s e s hi pp ing wou ld ge t in to or out o f t he E a st and S out h C hina S ea s L ea v ing i ts o nl y supp l y rout e s ov e r land t h rou gh R uss ia , I ndia or C en tr al A s ia w hich wou ld r e qu i r e y ea rs o f inf r a stru c tur e b u ild - up in t he w e st and ot he r t han R uss ia , w hich migh t s ee an opportu ni ty to h urt t he U ni t ed S t a t e s n o ne o f t he s e c ou n tr ie s ha v e an y g r ea t in t e r e st in hel p ing C hina T r an s a t lan t ic t ie s inc r ea s ing , w ill c o n t in u e to str eng t hen J ame s C a r afan o , V ice P r e s iden t , H e r i t age F ou nda t i o n , A pr il 11, 2020, T he G r ea t U S .- C hina D i vor ce H a s A rr i v ed , h ttps :// na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / g r ea t - us - china - di vor ce - ha s - a rr i v ed -146177 T r an s a t lan t ic C o mm u ni ty N o str a t egic p a rt ne rs hi p i s m or e im port an t to t he f r ee wor ld t han t he tr an s a t lan t ic c o mm u ni ty T he U S i s n ʼ t g o ing to gi v e up o n t hi s p a rt ne rs hi p ( h ttps :// www he r i t age or g / e urop e / r e port / h ow - and - w h y - ame r ican - c o n s e rv a t i v e s - m ust - figh t - t he - f utur e - t he - tr an s a t lan t ic - c o mm u ni ty ). N ei t he r s h ou ld E urop e I f E urop ean s w an t to kee p t hei r f r eed o m s , t he y can ʼ t be ne utr al o b s e rv e rs in t he c o m p e t i t i o n be tw een t he U S and C hina E v en S w i tz e r land can ʼ t be S w i tz e r land an y m or e P ost - CO V ID , e xp ec t r ene w ed in v e st men ts in t he tr an s a t lan t ic c o mm u ni ty ( h ttps :// www f ox ne ws c o m / op ini o n / c oro na v i rus - e urop e - us - need - each - ot he r - jame s - ca r afan o ), n ot j ust to r e st a rt our j o in t ec o n o mic engine , b ut to ma r ginali z e t he malici ous infl u ence s o f C hina R uss ia , C hina , N ort h K or ea , and I r an all t h r ea t en t he US P op e s c u , A pr il , 15, 2020, D r I o n ut P op e s c u i s an a ss i st an t pro fe ssor o f po li t ical s cience a t T e x a s S t a t e U ni v e rs i ty and an o ffice r in t he U S N a vy R e s e rv e H e i s t he a ut h or o f E me r gen t S tr a t eg y and G r and S tr a t eg y : H ow A me r ican P r e s iden ts S u cceed Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 10/124 in F or eign P o lic y ( J o hn s H op kin s , 2017) T he op ini o n s e xpr e ss ed he r e a r e en t i r el y hi s ow n , and d o n ot r e pr e s en t t he v ie ws o f t he U S N a vy or t he D e p a rt men t o f D efen s e , I t ʼ s T ime to G e t R eal A b out G r ea t - P ow e r P o li t ic s , h ttps : // na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / i ts - t ime - ge t - r eal - ab out - g r ea t - pow e r - po li t ic s - 144742 A n o ffen s i v e A me r ican g r and str a t egic f r ame wor k f or t he ne w e r a o f g r ea t - pow e r c o m p e t i t i o n r e sts o n t h r ee c or e pr inci p le s F i rst , in or de r to add r e ss t he o nl y r eali st ic t h r ea t o f a h ost ile r egi o nal hegem o n d o mina t ing o ne o f t he t h r ee ke y ge opo li t ical a r ea s o f t he wor ld ( E urop e , A s ia , M iddle E a st ) and t h us r eaching gl o bal c o - sup e rpow e r st a tus , t he U ni t ed S t a t e s s h ou ld cen t e r i ts g r and str a t eg y a rou nd t he c o n t ainmen t o f C hine s e pow e r and infl u ence b ot h in A s ia and gl o ball y T hi s i s t he s ingle m ost s ignifican t t h r ea t to U S na t i o nal in t e r e st in t he l o ng - ru n T he s ec o nd pr inci p le out line s t h r ee s ec o nd - or de r t h r ea ts : R uss ia ʼ s r e sur gence a s a h ost ile ge opo li t ical p la y e r , de st abili z ing n u clea r pro life r a t i o n o n t he p a rt o f ro g u e r egime s su ch a s in N ort h K or ea and likel y I r an , and t he c o n t in u ed figh t again st r adical jihadi st g roups like I S I S and A l Q aed a T he s e s ec ur i ty t h r ea ts o f s ignifican t b ut ne v e rt hele ss le ss e r str a t egic im port ance w ill need to be deal t w i t h in a c ost - effec t i v e manne r , so a s to f r ee r e sour ce s f or t he main g o al o f c o n t aining C hina A nd t hi r d , t he U ni t ed S t a t e s need s to be r ead y to rut hle ss l y c o m p e t e di p l o ma t icall y and ec o n o micall y in s ha p ing t he c o n tours o f an eme r gen t r eali st wor ld or de r ( and r egi o nal or de rs ) t ha t i s g r ad u all y r e p lacing t he post – W or ld W a r II libe r al wor ld or de r E c o n o mic t ie s and r egi o nali s m ha v e n ot stopp ed C hine s e and R uss ian agg r e ss i o n P op e s c u , A pr il , 15, 2020, D r I o n ut P op e s c u i s an a ss i st an t pro fe ssor o f po li t ical s cience a t T e x a s S t a t e U ni v e rs i ty and an o ffice r in t he U S N a vy R e s e rv e H e i s t he a ut h or o f E me r gen t S tr a t eg y and G r and S tr a t eg y : H ow A me r ican P r e s iden ts S u cceed in F or eign P o lic y ( J o hn s H op kin s , 2017) T he op ini o n s e xpr e ss ed he r e a r e en t i r el y hi s ow n , and d o n ot r e pr e s en t t he v ie ws o f t he U S N a vy or t he D e p a rt men t o f D efen s e , Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 11/124 I t ʼ s T ime to G e t R eal A b out G r ea t - P ow e r P o li t ic s , h ttps : // na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / i ts - t ime - ge t - r eal - ab out - g r ea t - pow e r - po li t ic s - 144742 I n c o n tr a st w i t h t he s e two p a r adigm s , o ffen s i v e r eali s m ʼ s p e ss imi st ic v ie w o f g r ea t pow e r po li t ic s m or e acc ur a t el y an t ici p a t ed t ha t t he “ h o lida y f ro m hi story ” o f t he p a st two or t h r ee decade s w ill c o me to an end soo ne r r a t he r t han la t e r A s f or me r O bama admini str a t i o n o fficial s , K urt C am p bell and E l y R a t ne r o b s e rv ed ( h ttps :// www f or eignaffai rs c o m / a rt icle s / china /2018-02-13/ china - r eck o ning ), “ N ei t he r ca rrots n or st ick s ha v e sw a y ed C hina a s pr edic t ed D i p l o ma t ic and c o mme r cial engagemen t ha v e n ot b rou gh t po li t ical and ec o n o mic op enne ss N ei t he r U S mili t a ry pow e r n or r egi o nal balancing ha s stopp ed B eijing f ro m s eeking to di sp lace c or e c o m po nen ts o f t he U S .- led syst em A nd t he libe r al in t e r na t i o nal or de r ha s failed to l ur e or bind C hina a s pow e r f u ll y a s e xp ec t ed C hina ha s in st ead pursu ed i ts ow n c ours e , bel y ing a r ange o f A me r ican e xp ec t a t i o n s in t he pro ce ss .” S imila r l y , V ladimi r P ut in ʼ s ( h ttps :// www f or eignaffai rs c o m / a rt icle s / russ ia - f su /2018-06-14/ russ ia - i t ) str a t eg y ( h ttps :// www f or eignaffai rs c o m / a rt icle s / russ ia - f su /2017-10-16/ r e spo nding - russ ia s - r e sur gence ) i s clea r l y aimed a t e xp anding R uss ia ʼ s sp he r e o f infl u ence in t he f or me r S ov ie t S t a t e s and to w eaken A me r ica ʼ s mili t a ry and di p l o ma t ic pr e s ence in E a st e r n E urop e S o me defen s i v e r eali sts migh t a r g u e t ha t R uss ia ʼ s agg r e ss i v ene ss in U k r aine w a s provo ked b y t he W e st ʼ s pursu i t o f cl os e r t ie s w i t h K ie v , b ut t hi s a r g u men t i s ha r d to r ec o ncile w i t h P ut in ʼ s di sproport i o na t e mili t a ry r e spo n s e t ha t led to t he ac tu al s ei zur e o f C r imea , or w i t h R uss ia ʼ s agg r e ss i v e r he tor ic tow a r d s NA T O s ince t ha t t ime T he “ tr aged y o f g r ea t pow e r po li t ic s ” i s t ha t c o nflic t i s t he na tur al st a t e o f r ela t i o n s am o ng t hem , so me t hing t ha t i s a s tru e to da y a s i t al w a ys ha s been A gg r e ss i v e R uss ian and C hine s e e xp an s i o ni s m n ow Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 12/124 P op e s c u , A pr il , 15, 2020, D r I o n ut P op e s c u i s an a ss i st an t pro fe ssor o f po li t ical s cience a t T e x a s S t a t e U ni v e rs i ty and an o ffice r in t he U S N a vy R e s e rv e H e i s t he a ut h or o f E me r gen t S tr a t eg y and G r and S tr a t eg y : H ow A me r ican P r e s iden ts S u cceed in F or eign P o lic y ( J o hn s H op kin s , 2017) T he op ini o n s e xpr e ss ed he r e a r e en t i r el y hi s ow n , and d o n ot r e pr e s en t t he v ie ws o f t he U S N a vy or t he D e p a rt men t o f D efen s e , I t ʼ s T ime to G e t R eal A b out G r ea t - P ow e r P o li t ic s , h ttps : // na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / i ts - t ime - ge t - r eal - ab out - g r ea t - pow e r - po li t ic s - 144742 A s a decidedl y p e ss imi st ic t he ory o f g r ea t - pow e r po li t ic s , o ffen s i v e r eali s m admi tt edl y d o e s n ot o ffe r ei t he r t he up lif t ing v i s i o n o f p eace and prosp e r i ty u nde r an e v e r - e xp anding libe r al wor ld or de r ad vo ca t ed b y libe r al in t e r na t i o nali sts n or t he financial s a v ing s and benign i so la t i o n im p lied in t he r e tr enchmen t p a r adigm propos ed b y defen s i v e r eali sts H ow e v e r , r ecen t de v el op men ts o n t he in t e r na t i o nal s cene fi t be tt e r w i t h t he t he or e t ical e xp ec t a t i o n s o f o ffen s i v e r eali s m t han w i t h t h os e o f i ts al t e r na t i v e p a r adigm s T he c urr en t e r a i s d o mina t ed b y t he r e sur gence o f g r ea t - pow e r r e v i s i o ni s m , w i t h C hina and R uss ia agg r e ss i v el y e xp anding t hei r sp he r e s o f infl u ence b ot h r egi o nall y and gl o ball y in a w a y t ha t o ffen s i v e r eali sts su ch a s M ea rs heime r e xp ec t ed all al o ng I n t he 1990 s and 2000 s , t he W a s hing to n f or eign po lic y eli t e s , op e r a t ing b ro adl y sp eaking u nde r a libe r al in t e r na t i o nali st wor ld v ie w , a ssu med t ha t dee p ening t he ec o n o mic engagemen t w i t h r i s ing g r ea t pow e rs w ill s e rv e to dimini s h tr adi t i o nal ge opo li t ical c o nflic ts , and in st ead lead B eijing and M os c ow to acce pt t he ru le s and n or m s o f t he W e st e r n libe r al wor ld or de r R e str ain t ad vo ca t e s , w hile c r i t ical o f t he libe r al a ssu m pt i o n s t ha t ec o n o mic and di p l o ma t ic in t eg r a t i o n w ill lead to p eacef u l c oop e r a t i o n am o ng st t he g r ea t pow e rs , ne v e rt hele ss fail to acc ou n t f or t he agg r e ss i v e r ecen t m ov e s o f C hina in t he S out h C hina S ea or f or R uss ia ʼ s mili t a ry ad v en tur i s m in G e or gi a , U k r aine and n ow S yr ia F or defen s i v e r eali sts , s ec ur i ty i s p len t if u l in t he in t e r na t i o nal syst em , and t he s e g r ea t pow e rs s h ou ld feel s ec ur e en ou gh in t hei r r egi o n s in st ead o f agg r e ss i v el y a tt em pt ing to e xp and t hei r r egi o nal infl u ence and c o n tro l e v en a t t he r i s k o f in v i t ing balancing c o ali t i o n s again st t hem Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 13/124 T r an s i t i o n to m u l t i po la r i ty r i s k s w a r P op e s c u , A pr il , 15, 2020, D r I o n ut P op e s c u i s an a ss i st an t pro fe ssor o f po li t ical s cience a t T e x a s S t a t e U ni v e rs i ty and an o ffice r in t he U S N a vy R e s e rv e H e i s t he a ut h or o f E me r gen t S tr a t eg y and G r and S tr a t eg y : H ow A me r ican P r e s iden ts S u cceed in F or eign P o lic y ( J o hn s H op kin s , 2017) T he op ini o n s e xpr e ss ed he r e a r e en t i r el y hi s ow n , and d o n ot r e pr e s en t t he v ie ws o f t he U S N a vy or t he D e p a rt men t o f D efen s e , I t ʼ s T ime to G e t R eal A b out G r ea t - P ow e r P o li t ic s , h ttps : // na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / i ts - t ime - ge t - r eal - ab out - g r ea t - pow e r - po li t ic s - 144742 W ha t ha pp ened ? A nd w ha t d o e s t hi s s hif t t ell us ab out t he be st t he or e t ical p a r adigm to u nde rst and and s ha p e U S g r and str a t egic deci s i o nmaking in t he y ea rs to c o me ? O v e r t he p a st two decade s , w hile t he U ni t ed S t a t e s sp en t v a st r e sour ce s f or li tt le str a t egic gain in c o nflic ts ac ross t he M iddle E a st , C hina and R uss ia too k deci s i v e st e ps to inc r ea s e t hei r sp he r e s o f infl u ence a t t he e xp an s e o f W a s hing to n and i ts r egi o nal allie s W hile puzz ling f ro m t he libe r al in t e r na t i o nali st p e rsp ec t i v e st ill pr e v alen t in t he W a s hing to n f or eign po lic y e st abli s hmen t , t he agg r e ss i v e ac t i o n s o f B eijing and M os c ow , a s w ell a s t he inc r ea s ingl y c o nf ro n t a t i o nal U S r e spo n s e , all t he s e de v el op men ts a r e ea s il y e xp lained b y t he o ffen s i v e r eali st s ch oo l o f in t e r na t i o nal r ela t i o n s t he ory T he “ tr aged y o f g r ea t pow e r po li t ic s ( h ttps :// www ama zo n c o m / T r aged y - G r ea t - P ow e r - P o li t ic s - U p da t ed / d p /0393349276) ,” a s J o hn M ea rs heime r l o ng ag o r ec o gni z ed , i s t ha t an inc r ea s ingl y m u l t i po la r syst em , su ch a s to da y ʼ s wor ld , lead s to in t en s e str a t egic r i v al r ie s and pot en t ial mili t a ry c o nflic ts am o ng t he g r ea t pow e rs W or ld i s n ow m u l t i po la r P op e s c u , A pr il , 15, 2020, D r I o n ut P op e s c u i s an a ss i st an t pro fe ssor o f po li t ical s cience a t T e x a s S t a t e U ni v e rs i ty and an o ffice r in t he U S N a vy R e s e rv e H e i s t he a ut h or o f E me r gen t S tr a t eg y and G r and S tr a t eg y : H ow A me r ican P r e s iden ts S u cceed in F or eign P o lic y ( J o hn s H op kin s , 2017) T he op ini o n s e xpr e ss ed he r e a r e en t i r el y hi s Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 14/124 ow n , and d o n ot r e pr e s en t t he v ie ws o f t he U S N a vy or t he D e p a rt men t o f D efen s e , I t ʼ s T ime to G e t R eal A b out G r ea t - P ow e r P o li t ic s , h ttps : // na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / i ts - t ime - ge t - r eal - ab out - g r ea t - pow e r - po li t ic s - 144742 E v e ry e r a o f wor ld or de r ( h ttps :// www ama zo n c o m / W or ld - O r de r - H en ry - K i ss inge r / d p /0143127713) in in t e r na t i o nal po li t ic s i s s ha p ed b y a c o mbina t i o n o f t he stru c tur al balance o f pow e r am o ng t he m ost s ignifican t ac tors o n t he o ne hand , and t he idea s , n or m s , and in st i tut i o n s g ov e r ning t hei r in t e r ac t i o n s o n t he ot he r O v e r t he p a st decade , t he in t e r na t i o nal syst em tr an s i t i o ned f ro m an A me r ican - d o mina t ed u ni po la r e r a s ha p ed b y su bd u ed g r ea t pow e r r i v al r ie s to a m u l t i po la r ( h ttps :// na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / ame r ica - r ead y - m u l t i po la r - wor ld -14964) e r a , o ne in w hich t he ke y s ha p ing fac tor i s t he agg r e ss i v e ge opo li t ical c o m p e t i t i o n am o ng t he U ni t ed S t a t e s , C hina , and to a le ss e r e xt en t R uss ia C hina i s a t h r ea t to T ai w an K en t W ang , 4-15, 20 i s a r e s ea r ch fell ow a t t he I n st i tut e f or T ai w an - A me r ica S tu die s ( I T A S ), a c o n s e rv a t i v e W a s hing to n - ba s ed t hink t ank f o c us ing o n t h os e a sp ec ts o f t he U ni t ed S t a t e s - T ai w an r ela t i o n s , and i s b ro adl y in t e r e st ed in t he U ni t ed S t a t e s - T ai w an - C hina tr ila t e r al e qu a t i o n , a s w ell a s in E a st A s ian s ec ur i ty a r chi t ec tur e , A pr il 15, 2020, C ou ld t he C oro na v i rus S t a rt a W a r B e tw een T ai w an and C hina ?, h ttps :// na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / c ou ld - c oro na v i rus - st a rt - w a r - be tw een - t ai w an - and - china -144642 T he im p lica t i o n s o f C hina ʼ s mili t a ry m o de r ni z a t i o n a r e pro f ou nd “ C o n s e rv a t i v e s ha v e al so l o ng w a r ned t ha t C hina ʼ s ambi t i o n s g o w ell be yo nd s im p l y t aking ov e r T ai w an ,” R ick F i s he r , a C hina mili t a ry anal yst , s aid “ W ha t C hina w ill try to d o to T ai w an i s s im p l y t he t em p la t e f or h ow i t w ill e v en tu all y t h r ea t en e v e ry ot he r dem o c r ac y .” T he challenge pos ed b y T he im p lica t i o n s o f C hina ʼ s mili t a ry m o de r ni z a t i o n a r e pro f ou nd “ C o n s e rv a t i v e s ha v e al so l o ng w a r ned t ha t C hina ʼ s ambi t i o n s g o w ell be yo nd s im p l y t aking ov e r T ai w an ,” R ick F i s he r , a C hina mili t a ry anal yst , s aid “ W ha t Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 15/124 C hina w ill try to d o to T ai w an i s s im p l y t he t em p la t e f or h ow i t w ill e v en tu all y t h r ea t en e v e ry ot he r dem o c r ac y .” T he challenge pos ed b y C hine s e mili t a ry e xp an s i o n r e qu i r e s a C o ld W a r - typ e r e spo n s e , a s i t ʼ s o ne o f t he m ost ambi t i ous mili t a ry m o de r ni z a t i o n eff orts in r ecen t hi story C hina ʼ s b u ild up o f mi ss ile s , w a rs hi ps , ai r c r af t , sp ace w ea po n ry and c y be r ca p abili t ie s ha s accele r a t ed u nde r P r e s iden t X i J in p ing T he decade s - l o ng mili t a ry b u ild up n ow pos e s a t h r ea t to T ai w an s ec ur i ty n ot j ust in I nd o - P acific b ut al so a rou nd t he gl o be , and t he g r ea t c o n s e qu ence o f C hina ʼ s in v a s i o n c ou ld eme r ge a t t hi s fla s h po in t R uss ia , C hina , N ort h K or ea , and I r an all t h r ea t en t he US P op e s c u , A pr il , 15, 2020, D r I o n ut P op e s c u i s an a ss i st an t pro fe ssor o f po li t ical s cience a t T e x a s S t a t e U ni v e rs i ty and an o ffice r in t he U S N a vy R e s e rv e H e i s t he a ut h or o f E me r gen t S tr a t eg y and G r and S tr a t eg y : H ow A me r ican P r e s iden ts S u cceed in F or eign P o lic y ( J o hn s H op kin s , 2017) T he op ini o n s e xpr e ss ed he r e a r e en t i r el y hi s ow n , and d o n ot r e pr e s en t t he v ie ws o f t he U S N a vy or t he D e p a rt men t o f D efen s e , I t ʼ s T ime to G e t R eal A b out G r ea t - P ow e r P o li t ic s , h ttps : // na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / i ts - t ime - ge t - r eal - ab out - g r ea t - pow e r - po li t ic s - 144742 A n o ffen s i v e A me r ican g r and str a t egic f r ame wor k f or t he ne w e r a o f g r ea t - pow e r c o m p e t i t i o n r e sts o n t h r ee c or e pr inci p le s F i rst , in or de r to add r e ss t he o nl y r eali st ic t h r ea t o f a h ost ile r egi o nal hegem o n d o mina t ing o ne o f t he t h r ee ke y ge opo li t ical a r ea s o f t he wor ld ( E urop e , A s ia , M iddle E a st ) and t h us r eaching gl o bal c o - sup e rpow e r st a tus , t he U ni t ed S t a t e s s h ou ld cen t e r i ts g r and str a t eg y a rou nd t he c o n t ainmen t o f C hine s e pow e r and infl u ence b ot h in A s ia and gl o ball y T hi s i s t he s ingle m ost s ignifican t t h r ea t to U S na t i o nal in t e r e st in t he l o ng - ru n T he s ec o nd pr inci p le out line s t h r ee s ec o nd - or de r t h r ea ts : R uss ia ʼ s r e sur gence a s a h ost ile ge opo li t ical p la y e r , de st abili z ing n u clea r pro life r a t i o n o n t he p a rt o f ro g u e r egime s su ch a s in N ort h K or ea and likel y I r an , and t he c o n t in u ed figh t again st r adical jihadi st g roups like I S I S and A l Q aed a T he s e s ec ur i ty t h r ea ts o f s ignifican t b ut ne v e rt hele ss le ss e r str a t egic im port ance w ill need to be deal t w i t h in a c ost - effec t i v e manne r , so a s to f r ee Feedback 4/28/2020 Offshore Balancing Daily Update – Public Forum: DebateUS! https://pf.debateus.org/blog/2020/04/10/offshore-balancing-evidence/ 16/124 r e sour ce s f or t he main g o al o f c o n t aining C hina A nd t hi r d , t he U ni t ed S t a t e s need s to be r ead y to rut hle ss l y c o m p e t e di p l o ma t icall y and ec o n o micall y in s ha p ing t he c o n tours o f an eme r gen t r eali st wor ld or de r ( and r egi o nal or de rs ) t ha t i s g r ad u all y r e p lacing t he post – W or ld W a r II libe r al wor ld or de r T r an s i t i o n to m u l t i po la r i ty r i s k s w a r P op e s c u , A pr il , 15, 2020, D r I o n ut P op e s c u i s an a ss i st an t pro fe ssor o f po li t ical s cience a t T e x a s S t a t e U ni v e rs i ty and an o ffice r in t he U S N a vy R e s e rv e H e i s t he a ut h or o f E me r gen t S tr a t eg y and G r and S tr a t eg y : H ow A me r ican P r e s iden ts S u cceed in F or eign P o lic y ( J o hn s H op kin s , 2017) T he op ini o n s e xpr e ss ed he r e a r e en t i r el y hi s ow n , and d o n ot r e pr e s en t t he v ie ws o f t he U S N a vy or t he D e p a rt men t o f D efen s e , I t ʼ s T ime to G e t R eal A b out G r ea t - P ow e r P o li t ic s , h ttps : // na t i o nalin t e r e st or g / fea tur e / i ts - t ime - ge t - r eal - ab out - g r ea t - pow e r - po li t ic s - 144742 W ha t ha pp ened ? A nd w ha t d o e s t hi s s hif t t ell us ab out t he be st t he or e t ical p a r adigm to u nde rst and and s ha p e U S g r and str a t egic deci s i o nmaking in t he y ea rs to c o me ? O v e r t he p a st two decade s , w hile t he U ni t ed S t a t e s sp en t