Information-theoretic causal inference of lexical flow Johannes Dellert language science press Language Variation 4 Language Variation Editors: John Nerbonne, Martijn Wieling In this series: 1. Côté, Marie-Hélène, Remco Knooihuizen and John Nerbonne (eds.). The future of dialects. 2. Schäfer, Lea. Sprachliche Imitation: Jiddisch in der deutschsprachigen Literatur (18.–20. Jahrhundert). 3. Juskan, Martin. Sound change, priming, salience: Producing and perceiving variation in Liverpool English. 4. Dellert, Johannes. Information-theoretic causal inference of lexical flow. ISSN: 2366-7818 Information-theoretic causal inference of lexical flow Johannes Dellert language science press Dellert, Johannes. 2019. Information-theoretic causal inference of lexical flow (Language Variation 4). Berlin: Language Science Press. This title can be downloaded at: http://langsci-press.org/catalog/book/233 © 2019, Johannes Dellert Published under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Licence (CC BY 4.0): http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ISBN: 978-3-96110-143-6 (Digital) 978-3-96110-144-3 (Hardcover) ISSN: 2366-7818 DOI:10.5281/zenodo.3247415 Source code available from www.github.com/langsci/233 Collaborative reading: paperhive.org/documents/remote?type=langsci&id=233 Cover and concept of design: Ulrike Harbort Typesetting: Johannes Dellert Proofreading: Amir Ghorbanpour, Aniefon Daniel, Barend Beekhuizen, David Lukeš, Gereon Kaiping, Jeroen van de Weijer, Fonts: Linux Libertine, Libertinus Math, Arimo, DejaVu Sans Mono Typesetting software: XƎL A TEX Language Science Press Unter den Linden 6 10099 Berlin, Germany langsci-press.org Storage and cataloguing done by FU Berlin Contents Preface vii Acknowledgments xi 1 Introduction 1 2 Foundations: Historical linguistics 7 2.1 Language relationship and family trees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2.2 Language contact and lateral connections . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.3 Describing linguistic history . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.4 Classical methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2.4.1 The comparative method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 2.4.2 Theories of lexical contact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.5 Automated methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.5.1 Lexical databases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2.5.2 Phylogenetic inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.5.3 Phylogeographic inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 2.5.4 Automating the comparative method . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.5.5 On the road towards network models . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2.6 The lexical flow inference task . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.6.1 Phylogenetic lexical flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.6.2 Contact flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.7 The adequacy of models of language history . . . . . . . . . . . 46 3 Foundations: Causal inference 51 3.1 Philosophical and theoretical foundations . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 3.1.1 Correlation and causation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 3.1.2 Causality without experiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 3.1.3 Conditional independence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 3.1.4 Bayesian networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 3.1.5 Causal interpretation of Bayesian networks . . . . . . . 62 Contents 3.2 Causal inference algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 3.2.1 Causal graphs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 3.2.2 Determining conditional independence relations . . . . 71 3.2.3 The PC algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 3.2.4 The FCI algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 3.2.5 Alternative algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 4 Wordlists, cognate sets, and test data 89 4.1 NorthEuraLex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 4.1.1 The case for a new deep-coverage lexical database . . . 89 4.1.2 Selecting the language sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 4.1.3 Selecting and defining the concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 4.1.4 The data collection process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 4.1.5 Difficulties and future development . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 4.2 Transforming and encoding into IPA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 4.2.1 Encoding cross-linguistic sound sequence data . . . . . 97 4.2.2 Implementing orthography-to-IPA transducers . . . . . 99 4.2.3 Tokenizing into reduced IPA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 4.3 Information-Weighted Sequence Alignment (IWSA) . . . . . . . 106 4.3.1 The case for information weighting . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 4.3.2 Gappy trigram models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 4.3.3 Implementing IWSA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 4.3.4 Inspecting the results of IWSA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 4.4 Modelling sound correspondences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 4.4.1 Perspectives on sound correspondences . . . . . . . . . 114 4.4.2 Modeling sound correspondences as similarity scores . . 115 4.4.3 Inferring global correspondences from NorthEuraLex . . 116 4.4.4 Inferring pairwise correspondences for NorthEuraLex 118 4.4.5 Aligning NorthEuraLex and deriving form distances . . 123 4.5 Cognate clustering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 4.5.1 The cognate detection problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 4.5.2 Approaches to cognate clustering . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 4.5.3 Deriving cognate sets from NorthEuraLex . . . . . . . . 128 4.5.4 Evaluation on IELex intra-family cognacy judgments . . 128 4.5.5 Evaluation on WOLD cross-family cognacy judgments . 132 4.5.6 A look at the cognate sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 4.6 Deriving a gold standard for lexical flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 4.6.1 Defining the gold standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 ii Contents 4.6.2 Case study 1: The Baltic Sea area . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 4.6.3 Case study 2: Uralic and contact languages . . . . . . . . 145 4.6.4 Case study 3: The linguistic landscape of Siberia . . . . . 149 4.6.5 Case study 4: A visit to the Caucasus . . . . . . . . . . . 164 5 Simulating cognate histories 171 5.1 Simulation and in-silico evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 5.1.1 Advantages and shortcomings of simulation . . . . . . . 171 5.1.2 Principles of in-silico evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 5.2 Generating phylogenies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 5.2.1 Models of lexical replacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 5.2.2 Simulating how languages split and die . . . . . . . . . . 176 5.3 Modeling lexical contact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 5.3.1 Modeling the preconditions for contact . . . . . . . . . . 178 5.3.2 A monodirectional channel model of language contact 179 5.3.3 Opening and closing channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 5.3.4 Simulating channel behavior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 5.3.5 Overview of the simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 5.4 Analyzing the simulated scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 5.4.1 Are the scenarios realistic? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186 5.4.2 Are the scenarios interesting? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 5.5 Potential further uses of simulated scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . 193 6 Phylogenetic lexical flow inference 195 6.1 Modeling languages as variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196 6.1.1 Languages as phoneme sequence generators . . . . . . . 196 6.1.2 Languages as cognate set selectors . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 6.2 A cognate-based information measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 6.3 Conditional mutual information between languages . . . . . . . 201 6.4 Improving skeleton inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 6.4.1 Problem: stability on discrete information . . . . . . . . 202 6.4.2 Flow Separation (FS) independence . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 6.5 Improving directionality inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 6.5.1 Problem: monotonic faithfulness and v-structures . . . . 204 6.5.2 Unique Flow Ratio (UFR): flow-based v-structure testing 206 6.5.3 Triangle Score Sum (TSS): aggregating directionality hints 208 6.6 The phylogenetic guide tree . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 6.7 Deriving proto-language models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 6.7.1 Ancestral state reconstruction algorithms . . . . . . . . 214 iii Contents 6.7.2 Evaluation of ASR algorithms on simulated data . . . . . 220 6.8 Phylogenetic Lexical Flow Inference (PLFI) . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 6.9 Evaluation of PLFI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 6.9.1 Evaluation metrics for phylogenetic flow . . . . . . . . . 226 6.9.2 Overall quantitative results for NorthEuraLex data . . . 228 6.9.3 Qualitative discussion of NorthEuraLex scenarios . . . . 230 6.9.4 Evaluation on simulated data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 7 Contact lexical flow inference 249 7.1 The contact flow inference task . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249 7.2 Advantages and disadvantages of contact flow . . . . . . . . . . 250 7.3 Difficulties in applying the RFCI algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 7.4 Significance testing for v-structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253 7.5 Contact Lexical Flow Inference (CLFI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 7.6 Evaluation of CLFI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 7.6.1 Evaluation metrics for contact flow . . . . . . . . . . . . 258 7.6.2 Overall quantitative results for NorthEuraLex data . . . 259 7.6.3 Qualitative discussion of NorthEuraLex scenarios . . . . 261 7.6.4 Evaluation on simulated data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269 8 Conclusion and outlook 275 8.1 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275 8.2 Future work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277 8.3 Final remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 Appendix A: NorthEuraLex and the gold standard 287 A.1 Languages in NorthEuraLex 0.9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 A.2 Family trees from Glottolog 3.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290 A.3 Summary of lexical flow gold standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291 A.4 Concepts of NorthEuraLex 0.9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294 Appendix B: Intermediate results 319 B.1 Inferred cognacy overlaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319 B.2 The Glottolog tree with branch lengths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330 Appendix C: Proof of submodularity 331 Appendix D: Description of supplementary materials 333 References 335 iv Contents Index 351 Name index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351 Language index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355 Subject index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 v Preface This book starts out with the idea of modeling human language varieties as information-theoretic variables, and proceeds to define a conditional indepen- dence relation between sets of them. The conditional independence relationships are then used to infer two types of directed networks over language varieties which have all the properties of causal graphs, as defined by Pearl (2009). Such a graph can be interpreted as a parsimonious explanation of how the lexicon of the investigated varieties was shaped by inheritance and contact. This type of directed phylogenetic network is more general than the types which were previ- ously discussed in the literature on tractable phylogenetic network inference, as covered e.g. in the book-length overview by Morrison (2011). After a summary of the necessary background in historical linguistics (Chap- ter 2) and causal inference (Chapter 3), Chapter 4 describes the many preparatory steps which were necessary to arrive at good test data for these methods. Since none of the existing lexical databases has all the characteristics necessary for automatic computation of lexical overlaps across language family boundaries, a new deep-coverage lexical database of Northern Eurasia was compiled as part of the project which gave rise to this book. This NorthEuraLex database contains data for an unusually large list of more than a thousand concepts, and is the first database to cover the languages of a large continuous geographic area with more than 20 language families in a unified phonetic format. For four interesting areas of language contact (the Baltic Sea, the Uralic languages, Siberia, and the Cauca- sus), the literature on language contacts is surveyed at the end of this chapter to build a gold-standard of contact events which we would expect an automated method to be able to extract from the database. Since network inference builds on a similarity measure which is based on mea- suring lexical overlap, the word forms need to be grouped into sets of etymolog- ically related words in a preparatory step. While this clustering into “cognate” sets could be done manually by experts in the linguistic history of the respective region, recent developments in computational historical linguistics have made it possible to infer approximate cognate judgments by automated means. These approaches still misclassify many non-cognate pairs as cognates and vice versa, Preface but the number of errors is low enough for much of the relevant signal to persist on the language level, which makes it possible to apply statistical methods. By in- troducing a new phonetic form alignment method called Information-Weighted Sequence Alignment (IWSA), this book shows that established methods for auto- mated cognacy detection are refinable in such a way that they work on phonet- ically transcribed dictionary forms, making it unnecessary to manually reduce all words to their stems before running cognate detection on them. The method shows its strength especially in the unusual scenario of cross-family cognate de- tection, where it does not pay off to assume cognacy of similar forms as much as on the single-family datasets commonly used in the literature on automated cognate detection. The central contribution of this book, laid out in Chapter 6, is the derivation of a consistent information measure for sets of language varieties which is based on cognate set overlaps. The resulting measure of conditional mutual informa- tion quantifies a notion of lexical flow, where the lexical material needs to be distributed via paths connecting varieties in order to explain the overlap in their lexicons. Standard causal inference algorithms can then be applied to conditional independence constraints arising from vanishing mutual information. The result is a network which is minimal in the number of lateral connections while still being able to explain the cognate overlap patterns in the observed varieties. In Phylogenetic Lexical Flow Inference (PLFI), the simpler of the two algo- rithms introduced by this book, proto-languages are modeled explicitly as sources of overlaps in the inherited lexicon of related varieties. This requires the use of a guide tree defining the proto-languages, on which existing ancestral state re- construction methods from bioinformatics are used to reconstruct the presence or absence of each cognate set at each node. The resulting flow network adds directed lateral links to the guide tree, each of which represents some lexical material that was inferred to be transmitted from the donor to the recipient lan- guage by borrowing. The framework is general enough to infer directional con- tact among proto-languages, which means that the output structures are fully general evolutionary networks. In contrast, Contact Lexical Flow Inference (CLFI), which is described and eval- uated in Chapter 7, does not explicitly model the proto-languages, but instead conceptualizes them as unobserved sources of shared lexical material. The con- tact flow network only features the varieties included in the data, and different arrow types distinguish directional contact from common inheritance. From the statistical point of view, the proto-languages become latent confounders which cause spurious dependencies between the observable language variables. The viii presence of such hidden common causes is not necessarily a problem for causal inference, since the most advanced algorithms can in principle distinguish de- pendence relations that are due to common causes from those that are a product of direct causal relationships. For both algorithms, the discrete and unreliable nature of the cognate data makes it necessary to develop alternative methods for the different stages of causal inference, with the purpose of increasing robustness against erroneous cognacy judgments. This is achieved by a combination of re-analyzing the in- tuition behind the PC algorithm for causal inference in order to quantify and balance conflicting signals arising from different three-variable configurations, and putting further consistency restrictions on edge deletion decisions via a con- nectedness criterion on the level of individual cognate sets. Both methods are evaluated on the lexical database as well as large amounts of simulated cognacy data. Chapter 5 describes the model used to generate the simu- lated data, which is based on a simple evolutionary process that mimics language change by lexical replacement and borrowing on the level of individual words. This model is shown to produce realistic cognate data which will also be of use in validating other methods for inferring evolutionary networks from cognacy- encoded language data, whether expert-annotated or based on automated cog- nate detection. ix Acknowledgments Many people have contributed to the completion of this book, which started out as my dissertation project at the University of Tübingen, on a position in a project financed by the ERC Advanced Grant 324246 EVOLAEMP. During the four years that I was working on it, my advisor Gerhard Jäger provided me with a stable and rich research environment, with lots of opportunities to meet fascinating people, while always leaving me a maximum of freedom to explore my linguis- tic interests. He also provided the seed idea which this thesis grew out of, and when initial experiments failed due to low data quality, he gave me the chance to spend time and resources on collecting high-quality data. He also helped with many suggestions nudging me towards a more empirical approach in many de- sign decisions, and was always very quick to help with technical issues. Finally, I thank him for his patience when many parts of the work described here took longer than expected. Fritz Hamm, my second advisor, is not only the person who got me interested in causal inference, but over the past twelve years, he has also been the person to waken my interest first in logic, then in mathematics, and has been a source of encouragement and inspiration for my more formal side ever since. Igor Yanovich has given me much advice on which parts of my work to priori- tize, and accompanied the process of working out the mathematical details with a critical eye, also providing vital moral support whenever a new algorithmic idea did not lead to the results I had hoped for. I also thank Armin Buch and Marisa Köllner for the enjoyable collaboration on some of the research leading up to this thesis, as in determining the concept list for NorthEuraLex, and allowing me to test parts of my implementation in different contexts. I am also very grateful to all the other EVOLAEMP members for helpful discussion and feedback on the many occasions where I presented preliminary results to the group. I particularly enjoyed teaching with Christian Bentz and Roland Mühlenbernd, and exchang- ing experiences and knowledge with Johannes Wahle and Taraka Rama on many occasions. Among the many other researchers I have had the pleasure to communicate with during the past four years, there are some which provided particularly im- Acknowledgments portant bits of advice and information, which is why I would like to mention them here. Johann-Mattis List, Søren Wichmann, Gereon Kaiping, Harald Ham- marström, Michael Dunn, and Robert Forkel provided valuable advice about lex- ical databases, issues of standardization, and best practices. Johanna Nichols and Balthasar Bickel inspired my interest in typology, and helped me to see why this is the linguistic discipline where I feel most at home. I also enjoyed learning some Nenets with Polina Berezovskaya, who gave me valuable insights into linguistic fieldwork. Then, there are the many student assistants who assisted me in compiling the NorthEuraLex database, and with the many tasks involved in releasing it. Thora Daneyko has been extremely helpful in contributing many small programs and helpful knowledge to this large endeavor, and Isabella Boga continues to be a very enthusiastic and productive supporter of lifting the database to the next level. Pavel Sofroniev was of invaluable help whenever web programming was necessary (e.g. for the NorthEuraLex website), and Alessio Maiello helped many times by fixing problems in the project infrastructure in a very quick and com- petent manner. Thanks are also due to the former data collectors Alla Münch, Alina Ladygina, Natalie Clarius, Ilja Grigorjew, Mohamed Balabel, and Zalina Baysarova. For their contribution to the last steps on the long road towards the publication of this book, I would like to thank John Nerbonne, Sebastian Nordhoff, three anonymous reviewers, and the volunteer proofreaders for their encouragement, their helpful feedback, and especially their patience. When completing a dissertation, it is time to look back and think about the fac- tors which most influenced one’s development up to this point. Towering above all else, I see the luck of the time and place I was born into. Being born into Europe, this inspiring and complex continent which somehow manages to up- hold universal healthcare and affordable tuition, and into Germany, this safe and stable country of many opportunities which still puts some value on the humanities, are two factors which allowed me to study extensively without wor- rying too much about my future. Without this mindset, I would not have risked the jump into the uncertain perspectives of academia. Also, being able to study and then to continue my career in a calm and international place imbued with academic tradition like Tübingen can be added to this list of lucky geographical coincidences. Coming to the people who shaped me intellectually during my undergraduate studies, I would like to at least mention Frank Richter, Dale Gerdemann, Detmar Meurers, and Laura Kallmeyer, who introduced me to four very different kinds of xii computational linguistics, and Michael Kaufmann, in whose algorithmics group I have learned the most valuable pieces of knowledge and thinking which I took away from studying computer science. Among other factors which contributed to my making it through the past years, I cannot overstate the luck of having a stable and loving family in the North which always provided unconditional support, and a close-knit circle of Tübingen friends which was available for socializing and talking about problems whenever the need arose, often providing me with much-needed perspective on the scale of my problems and worries. Also, I am glad to still be able to count some other people I studied with among my close friends, even if they moved away from Tübingen by now. Finally, there is my wife Anna, the gratitude towards whom I find difficult to put into words. All the support, the patience, the willingness to be sad and happy together, to put up with late-night enthusiasm and despair despite a five- hour difference in sleep patterns – it would be a very different life without all this. We have been through a lot, and I am looking forward to building on what we have finally achieved for many more years. xiii 1 Introduction Many common questions asked by researchers about the interrelationships be- tween language varieties can be framed in terms of the direction of influence. A sociolinguist might ask which social group inside a society has introduced a certain usage of a word and how this usage spread, a dialectologist is often faced with the question where a certain phonetic innovation originated, and a histor- ical linguist will be interested in whether a group of clearly related words from two otherwise unrelated languages can be explained by borrowing, and if so, in which direction they are likely to have been borrowed. Across these domains, data tends to be available only in terms of discrete fea- tures assigned to each variety (perhaps with frequency information), or contin- uous measures of distance or similarity. We can only observe the distribution of these features at certain points, and often only a single point, in time, whereas the focus of our interest is on the processes generating the data we see. The chal- lenge is to develop and test theories about these processes post-hoc based only on observable data. Historical linguists are often faced with data from a set of languages about which little is known, and need to develop a coherent set of reconstructions and sound changes to explain how the observed data most likely came about. This book explores the idea of using causal inference for this purpose, a comparatively recent approach that is designed to systematically extract evidence about the directionality of influence between statistical variables based on observational data alone, whereas in classical statistics, the direction of causality between pairs of variables can only be determined by experiment. The conditional independence tests which are necessary for constraint-based causal inference can be generalized with the help of information theory, a mathe- matical framework which provides a systematic way of analyzing the knowledge provided by sources of information, quantifying how informative a certain piece of information is if we already know the information from a different source, and most crucially, to offset the shared information different pairs of sources provide about each other in very complex ways in order to answer the question whether some source of information (e.g. some language) will provide any new knowl- 1 Introduction edge if we already know the information coming from a set of other sources (e.g. related languages). Causal inference has the advantage of being able to infer very general graph structures, whereas the bulk of efforts in automated inference of linguistic his- tory has been on inferring tree structures, a very common simplified model of the historical developments shaping the linguistic landscape. In recent years, work on automated inference of phylogenetic trees has quite successfully been per- formed on many language families whose internal structure was found to be difficult to determine based on the classical methods. In these works, contact be- tween languages is usually only seen as causing noise which complicates infer- ence of the inheritance tree, and sometimes needs to be corrected for. In contrast, methods for explicitly determining a set of likely contact events are still in their infancy. A still largely open question is whether it is possible to determine algo- rithmically not only which languages form a genetic unit by offspring, but also which contacts have taken place, and in which direction the lexical material was transmitted. The problem that I am setting out to solve in the present volume can be de- scribed as the inference of lexical flow. The basic metaphor is that lexical mate- rial flows into a language either by inheritance from an earlier ancestral language (much as water flowing down a river), or through borrowing (spillovers into adja- cent waterways). To stay with the metaphor, the challenging task of lexical flow inference is then equivalent to measuring the composition of the water on vari- ous outlets of a large delta, and infer a structure of sources, brooks and spillovers which may have produced this pattern. Starting only with parallel wordlists for a set of languages, the first step is to determine which of the words from different languages are cognates, i.e. related by common ancestry. Given a model specifying which words in a set of neighbor- ing languages are cognates, the next step is to build a theory of which languages are genetically related (offspring of a common ancestral language), and how the languages influenced each other during their history. In this book, I show that building on state-of-the-art methods from computational linguistics to perform automated cognate detection, and then performing novel algorithmic methods inspired by causal inference on the cognate data, it is possible to come rather close to a good solution for two types of lexical flow inference problem. My al- gorithms are evaluated both against real data derived from a new large-scale lexicostatistical database, and against synthetic data which were generated by a new simulation model which allows me to generate any amount of realistic cognacy data for simulated linguistic areas. 2