AMGN is Targeting BCRX for Acquisition BCRX management has been acting quite peculiar these last f ew months an d in my head, all the change stemmed from the pulled o ffering in August 2021. But what exactly changed and is there a logic chain we can follow to figure out what is going on? As far as I can tell, there can be two logic trains of t hought on this subject, and I outline them below. I personally hate buyout talk but love logical speculation of events, and thus, I am going to lay out my two likely scenarios for the odd action we have seen in BCRX these last few months and you can take away your own con clusion. Option A – BCRX M anagement Shuns the Capital Markets It is very possible that upon trying to execute the offering i n August, the investment banks moved the goal posts on Jon and company forcing them into lesser, and un att ractive terms. We know that Wall Street plays hardball constantly, e specially with money h ung ry bios, and thus, it ’ s quite possible t hat the investment banks working with Jon on the offering changed the rules and expected Jon to just fall in line, Jon did what most bio companies DON ’ T do, and said a hard and fast “ No, this isn ’ t w hat we agreed to, and because I don ’ t need it this badly and I don ’ t want to shake our shareholders even more than this current bio beat down already has, we are going to seek better options than tapping the capital markets with stingy wall street playe rs ” Jon and team t hen turn ba ck to Ro yalty Pharma and shake them into some meetings where they present more preclinical info on the Factor D program being set up behind 9930, and also ask them if they had any other ideas for extra funding. Perhaps at t hat point, Royalty Pharma put them in contact with OMERS in Canada who was looking for a good deal on royalties, and boom, you have a forged deal, much less dilution, shareholder friendly and now BCRX is free to go about their business. The “ quietness ” or odd behavior of the company s ince this sce nario played out is Jon and company knowing the capital market raises game is rigged against them, it ’ s not a good bio market, and the investment banks are f ar too gre edy right now, so in turn, they take complete focus off the capital markets al l t ogether. Why massage and hand hold the retail shareholders when we can ’ t use that av enue to get some capital an yway? Let ’ s turn our focus away from PR ’ s and IR and focus on the drugs and effectively go q ui et on the public front for the most part. This is against what Jon originally has said about a “ steady drum beat of news ” but very pla usible to turn your back on the capital markets that shut their doors to you. Option B – AMGN Stepp ed Up and is Making a Move Re wind back to the pulled offering. Look at the timeline of events, and follow this second logic chain. Not two weeks after the pulled offering, Steve Galson, head of str ategy for AMGN comes ont o our board of directors. Funny enough , he was awarded MORE op tions than any other new board member coming on AND he has a SHORTER contract. Kin da odd, but o k, lets move on. AMGN calls Jon after the pulled offering and says, “ No no no, you don ’ t want to do that. We ’ ve had our eye on you as we ’ ve been hunting for therapies in this space since we lost the bid for Alexion over to Astra Zenica, and we like what you are doing and we are quite interest ed in a possible strategic transaction, but we need more time. Bring Steve into your board of directors, let him help you with some contacts on securing capital with Royalty Pharma, show us and Royalty Pharma what you have going on for the Factor D programs, and let’ s get you so me funding and see where we go from there. ” Jon accepts, brings Steve in, and Jon and company go and negotiate money from OMERS and Royalty Pharma at a much better deal. On the other side, you have analy st s like Li isa Bayko hearing thro ugh the grapevine about AMGN stalking BCRX a little and behind their financing, and s he makes the statement of “ We see BCRX blowing away estimates and possibly moving to a strategic transaction in 2022 ” After Jon and company secure funding, they have another call with AMGN. “ Jon, we want you to take that money, and build a team completely dedicated to your Factor D programs and 9930. Hire, train, and build a big team as obviously you kn ow how with everything you ’ ve done with C harlie and his team for Orladeyo. We are so very impressed with your launch we want you to take that money, do all the prep work and hire and build the team for 9930, we ’ ll give you until May at the end of Steve ’ s contract do hire, train, build, an d report back to us. We also want you to show us the unblinded data on the POC and PNH trials for 9930, and we wll l make our move around that time if everything lines up. Also, keep things with the stock grounded and quiet during this period o f us doing do dilig ence please. ” Jon says , “ OK, will do . However what are you valuing Orladeyo at? Obviously , you were with us through the financing for 9930, you ’ ve seen some data, you know what we have, our curio sity is what value are you placing on Orla deyo? “ “ Well Jon, you ’ ve given guidance , but said you need to update it. You have more information now, what do you think peak sales are gonna be? Where do you see it going? ” “ Well, I can ’ t discuss that , it ’ s not public, but I ’ ll put something together , we will do some internal forcas ting, and we will get it out soon. We planned to do t his at the Q4 report in March, but we will get it out sooner once we get 2021 total numbers in and do some internal calcu lations. ” January hits, and you get the PR for updated Orladeyo guidance. While the news is fantastic, it also serve s as a valuation metric on that pr ogram, and now AMGN dissects that i nformation , looks at the 9930 data coming through, and has a very good idea of what these pr ograms are worth. We also know that Galidesivi r has had preclinical movement and investment much higher than normal, and also that there is more Factor D molecule s in preclinical. Perhaps the preclini cal data hasn ’ t been r elease d yet because they are ALSO being used to value this program. What I ’ m saying is that BCRX management is forwarding Galidesivir and showing what it ca n REALLY do so that AMGN can value that progr am more accurate ly, and also they are showing in pre clinicals just how versatile 9930 really is and what they can do with their Factor D patents, to which they have many. All of it is a simple show of value to AMGN whilst BCRX is building a team with the understanding that in April / May, AMGN finally pounce s giv en as much data as possible and proper valued programs to finish the numbers and do a strategic t r ansaction. Jon even an nounced “ FLAT Q1 Numbers due to contract tim ing and negotiations” specifically to keep the stock price flat and keep people “ uninterested ” wh ile the deal is finalized. If you think abou t it, if we are guiding flat for Q1, at 45M yet again, and he guided for 250M for the entire year, where he is ALWAYS conservative, then we literally have to do an average of about 71M per quarter, for every other quarter this year. That pretty damn aggressive from a Q1 that ’ s only gonna be 45M flat ... R ight? Something isn ’ t adding up, and I think it ’ s done by design.