The Battery Metals Market in 2021 Table of Contents Table of Contents 1 Lithium Market Update: Q1 2021 in Review 3 Lithium Market Update: Q2 2021 in Review 8 Cobalt Market Update: Q1 2021 in Review 12 Cobalt Market Update: Q2 2021 in Review 16 Graphite Market Update: H1 2021 in Review 21 Vanadium Market Update: H1 2021 in Review 25 Manganese Outlook 2021: Steel Demand to Recover, Oversupply to Persist 29 © 2021 1 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 © 2021 2 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 Lithium Market Update: Q1 2021 in Review What happened to lithium in Q1 2021? Our lithium market update outlines key developments and explores what could happen moving forward. Click here to read the latest lithium market update. The first few months of the year have been bright for the lithium market, with interest in battery metals increasing as electric vehicles (EVs) take over news headlines around the world. Despite the volatility brought by the coronavirus pandemic to every market, lithium has shown resilience and prices performed on an uptrend during the first quarter. What else happened to the metal in the first quarter of 2021, and what’s ahead for lithium in the near term? Read on for an overview of the main news that impacted the lithium market in Q1, plus a look at what investors should watch out for the rest of the year. Lithium market update: Price performance At the end of last year, the trend of declining lithium prices seemed to be coming to an end, with analysts predicting a better price environment ahead. When the year kicked off, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence was already expecting the lithium market to come into tightness in 2021. "But the speed of price increases in Q1 2021 was beyond expectation, with prices for lithium carbonate having nearly doubled in price since the beginning of the year," George Miller told the Investing News Network (INN). "Furthermore, shortages and sold out order books in Q1 were a stark change from Q4 2020, where lithium chemicals were freely available to consumers at lower prices." © 2021 3 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 Commenting on how prices performed in Q1, William Adams of Fastmarkets said he was expecting a bullish outcome on the back of strong demand and restocking. "But the extent of the buying and suddenness of the emergence of tightness was a surprise," he explained to INN. "It soon became apparent that a lot of the surplus that had built up in 2020 has been bought up and stockpiled by a few large users, and that the idle capacity was not ready to restart in a timely manner for various reasons." CRU Group also saw spot prices continue to move higher as expected through Q1. "EV sales across the key regions in Q1 have actually exceeded our already bullish expectations," James Jeary told INN. "On the supply side, there’s been plenty of development of projects in preparation for future supply growth, which is unsurprising." During the first three months of the year, leading producers released positive projections for the sector. Top Chinese producer Ganfeng Lithium (OTC Pink:GNENF,SZSE:002460), which saw its profits almost triple last year, said it expects the slower growth in lithium supply to extend the recent rally in prices. Meanwhile, Chile’s SQM (NYSE:SQM) sees demand growth reaching 25 percent this year. The miner posted record lithium sales in the last quarter of 2020, jumping 50 percent from the previous quarter. For its part, rival Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) estimates that lithium demand will grow in line with greater EV adoption, with the company accelerating its lithium growth projects to capitalize on this trend. Lithium market update: Supply and demand EV sales surged in 2020, and remained remarkably strong in China and Europe in Q1. "In Europe, this is partly due to the year-on-year effect of subsidies, which were introduced at the beginning of H2 2020," Jeary said. "Although sales may dip quarter-on-quarter in China in Q2, we do still expect year-on-year to be strong." Similarly, Adams pointed to China's EV sales — where first quarter sales totaled 515,000 EVs. "European sales have also been strong, and with US President Joe Biden now at the helm we expect the three largest EV markets, China, Europe and the US, to drive EV adoption, whereas in recent years it has really only been China, with Europe only really picking up strong momentum in 2020," he said. © 2021 4 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 As a result, Fastmarkets is expecting demand for lithium-ion batteries to continue to pick up pace. "If EV production is slowed due to semiconductor shortages, we expect battery factories will continue to increase production so they build up inventory," Adams added. Another trend seen in the quarter has been the continued discussion around the use of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathodes, which are cobalt and nickel free. CRU has seen strong LFP demand in the Chinese EV market, which according to Jeary is underpinning lithium carbonate demand. "There is very strong demand for cheaper, low-range EVs in China, which typically use LFP — this is likely to continue through 2021," he said. Higher Chinese LFP demand, paired with hydroxide production capacity increases, has driven carbonate prices up, with Fastmarkets expecting carbonate prices in China to remain at a premium to hydroxide. "Outside of China, hydroxide is still trading at a small premium to carbonate, and we expect that to remain the case for now," Adams said. Similarly, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence also saw a higher focus on lithium carbonate in Q1 as a result of strong sales of LFP and lower-nickel cathode-based EVs, with demand focused around China. "We have begun to see increasing demand for lithium hydroxide in recent weeks, as in a reverse of fortunes it has become the cheaper feedstock due to carbonate tightness," Miller said. "As such, we are expecting demand for hydroxide to pick up pace in Q2, as the market adjusts to supply-side tightness with little forecasted relief in the near-term future." Looking over to supply, expansion decisions are likely to happen this year in preparation for increasing brownfield mine supply, CRU’s Jeary said. "Restarts will also be considered, but there is more flexibility for these over implementing expansion plans," he added. Miller said it is important to keep in mind that many of the expansions happening now are those that were canceled or delayed over the past few years. "So it is really bringing these back on track," he said. "Even so, we will need to see further announcements if the looming deficit is to be pushed out further." © 2021 5 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 Looking at overall supply and demand dynamics forecast for 2021, CRU expects the lithium market to be in deficit in 2021. Meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ Adams thinks that on paper the market will be in a surplus. "But given (that) the ever-expanding downstream capacity will need more working stock, the market is likely to feel balanced, and there are likely to be further bouts of tightness as we witnessed in Q1." For its part, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is expecting to see the market marginally undersupplied in 2021. "It’s really from next year that supply issues become more significant," Miller said. "As such, we are expecting the current market tightness to continue and thus upward price pressure." Lithium market update: What’s ahead for prices and key catalysts to watch As Q2 is already in full swing, many investors may be wondering what’s ahead for the lithium space. "Chinese EV sales are expected to slow slightly in Q2 (compared to Q1), which may slow the rise of spot prices," Jeary said. "However, the recent spot price gains will continue to filter through into longer-term contract prices." When looking at what’s ahead for prices in Q2, Adams said restocking has run its course now. "That should mean those consumers who have restocked are able to avoid chasing prices higher for awhile," he said. "But there are convertors/processors in China who have not had enough feed material to ramp up production, so they will be keen to buy. This is likely to provide support to prices." However, he added, with some of the larger Chinese brine producers back in production after the winter months, availability in China should pick up. "As such, we expect prices to consolidate in the second quarter around the levels they were at the end of March," Adams said. Given the continued growth in downstream demand for EVs and cells, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is also expecting upward pressure on pricing to be maintained during 2021. © 2021 6 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 "Currently, the level of pricing for lithium chemicals is sustainable, but continued higher prices are required to incentivize the new supply that will be needed to meet growing demand," Miller said. Benchmark's domestic Chinese battery-grade lithium carbonate price was assessed at the end of March at an average of US$12,850 per tonne (EXW China), while its equivalent hydroxide price remained at US$10,325 per tonne. Previously, from 2018 to 2020, hydroxide maintained a US$1,000 to US$1,500 premium over carbonate. "As demand for higher-nickel cathode chemistries improve, which offer higher energy density and longer-range travel, yet are produced by few cathode manufacturers at current, we expect hydroxide prices to catch up to and exceed carbonate, returning to the status quo," Miller said. When asked about factors investors should watch in the second quarter, Jeary said government subsidies and OEM pledges will be important in determining EV uptake. "Any announcements related to mine expansions or restarts will also be important for determining supply over the next few years," he said. For Fastmarkets’ Adams, having invested enormous amounts in downstream capacity, the market needs more investment in upstream capacity. "So I would be on the lookout for more announcements on that." Points investors should keep an eye out for in the second quarter, according to Miller, include announcements of government policy regarding domestic supply chains and EV sales. In addition, integration and partnerships in the lithium-ion battery supply chain and investment into supply expansions from lithium producers could also be catalysts for the market. Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates! Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article. Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence. © 2021 7 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 Lithium Market Update: Q2 2021 in Review What happened to lithium in Q2 2021? Our lithium market update outlines key developments and explores what could happen moving forward. Click here to read the previous lithium market update. The first six months of the year have been bright for the lithium market. Despite the volatility the coronavirus pandemic brought to every market, lithium has shown resilience and prices performed on an uptrend during the first half of 2021. Interest in battery metals continues to increase as electric vehicles (EVs) take over news headlines around the world, which has been beneficial for lithium. How exactly did the metal perform in the second quarter of 2021, and what’s ahead for lithium in the near term? Read on for an overview of the main news that impacted the lithium market in Q2, plus a look at what investors should watch out for the rest of the year. Lithium market update: Price performance Lithium prices increased at an unexpected speed during the first three months of the year on the back of strong demand from the EV market. Following a positive start to the year, lithium prices continued this trend in the second quarter. "Lithium chemical and feedstock prices continued to perform well in Q2, following tightening supply/demand fundamentals, which pushed the market into a rising price environment during Q1 2021," George Miller of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence told the Investing News Network (INN). © 2021 8 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 The Benchmark Global Weighted Carbonate Price rose by 15.6 percent across the quarter, and its equivalent Benchmark Global Weighted Hydroxide Price rose by 34.5 percent, while spodumene prices rose by 11.1 percent (FOB Australia). Speaking with INN about the lithium market in the second quarter, James Jeary of CRU Group said spot prices were largely steady in China. "Q2 is typically slightly weaker for EV sales, which weighs on demand, although May sales were stronger than previously expected," he added. News from top producers is pointing to demand growth, with Chile’s SQM (NYSE:SQM) reporting a 180 percent jump in lithium sales volume in the first quarter. As a result, the miner is looking to fast-track existing expansion plans in Chile’s lithium-rich Atacama salt flat. SQM’s new target is to reach 180,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate and 30,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide in Chile by the end of 2022. Rival Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) also posted positive Q1 results, saying it's in the final stages of two projects that will boost its lithium processing; it expects to approve further expansion projects in Q2. Argentina-focused Livent (NYSE:LTHM) exceeded profit expectations in Q1 due to rising lithium sales. Longer term, Livent's plan is still to triple its carbonate capacity in Argentina to roughly 60,000 metric tons and to expand its hydroxide capacity in multiple geographies to meet growing customer demand. Meanwhile, China’s Ganfeng Lithium (OTC Pink:GNENF,SZSE:002460) had plenty of news throughout the quarter, acquiring a stake in a lithium mine in Mali for US$130 million and receiving approval to build a 20,000 tonne per year lithium plant for its Mariana project in Northern Argentina. The company is also set to buy Millennial Lithium (TSXV:ML,OTCQX:MLNLF) for US$353 million. Lithium market update: Supply and demand Demand is set to continue to rise for lithium products in the next quarter, following the trend seen so far in 2021. "EV sales across all jurisdictions have been improving, and cell manufacturers and cathode manufacturers alike have been scaling production efforts and expansion plans in order to cope with forecasted demand growth," Miller said to INN. © 2021 9 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 Demand trends are strong for both carbonate and hydroxide, he added, given the popularity of lithium-iron-phosphate cathode material in China for shorter-range, durable, lower-cost EVs. "(This) coexists with demand for higher-nickel cathode types in all end markets, which can provide longer-range travel and higher energy density for consumers with range anxiety," he added. Jeary agreed, saying strength in demand will remain in H2. "China will continue to be strong, and we expect good sales in US and Europe, although year-on-year the latter’s growth may not be as strong because of the effect that subsidies being introduced had in 2020 H2," he said. The CRU analyst added that currently demand for hydroxide seems to be stronger than carbonate in China due to production of high-nickel cathode chemistries. In terms of supply, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s outlook has been revised upwards slightly, reflecting the increasing ramp-up rate for both brine and hard-rock sources. "Despite this, the increase is unlikely to meet rising demand, placing both chemicals in a very tight position by the end of this year," Miller said. Similarly, CRU’s supply forecast has increased slightly due to a strong Q1 (and assumed strong Q2) for spodumene miners in Australia. "Production guidance has increased for some mines, which will see output remain strong in H2," Jeary said. Partnerships continue to take place in the lithium space, with Orocobre (ASX:ORE,OTC Pink:OROCF) and Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY,OTC Pink:GALXF) joining forces in what Miller described as an "extremely significant" partnership. "The new joint producer is set to become the sixth biggest in the world in terms of production volume, alongside controlling a formidable range of assets both in development and greenfield," Miller said. In terms of expansions, for the expert some of the biggest plans have stemmed from Ganfeng Lithium, which appears to be aiming to retain its stronghold as one of the largest chemical converters within China, with a focus on upstream acquisition to secure feedstock supply. "We have definitely seen an increasing frequency of investment announcements since the beginning of 2021," Miller said. "What has been especially interesting is increasing involvement in the lithium value chain from downstream automotive OEMs as they confront a looming deficit in raw material supply." © 2021 10 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 He pointed to General Motors' (NYSE:GM) announcement that it will invest in Controlled Thermal Resources, a lithium developer intending to generate supply from the Salton Sea in California. "We anticipate more of these announcements as automotive OEMs work to secure critical minerals supply for their cell supply chains in the future," he said. Commenting on the main hurdles lithium miners face today, Miller said the biggest challenge — and opportunity — for producers will be meeting customer demand and in turn maintaining market share. "Lithium developers will have to take risks to scale to meet forthcoming demand from the battery market, whether that includes investing in new assets, new production methods or making acquisitions in order to scale quickly enough," he added. For Jeary, despite the demand prospects, supply-side discipline will remain important for lithium miners. "Expansions, restarts and greenfield supply growth must come online in a timely manner to prevent a return to oversupply," he said. For lithium developers and explorers, the analyst said it can be hard to get established in a market dominated by large incumbent producers that are looking to consolidate market share. "Mergers and acquisitions by majors could be an opportunity for juniors to get a better foothold in the market," he said. Lithium market update: What’s ahead for prices and key catalysts to watch Given strong demand-side dynamics, and little supply-side expansion to compensate, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts that the market is likely to see higher prices in Q3, and ultimately H2 2021. "Now that hydroxide has regained a price premium to carbonate within China, we anticipate this to remain the case for some time, especially given the strong NCM/NCA cell production outlook as we start to see more uptake of high-nickel cathode chemistries in the industry," Miller said. For CRU, contract prices will continue to move higher, reflecting spot price gains from earlier in the year. "We expect spot hydroxide prices to remain at a premium to carbonate in Q3 due to strong demand and tighter spot supply," Jeary said. © 2021 11 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 Speaking about factors for investors to keep in mind in the next few months, Miller said meeting development targets, expanding production and investing in new assets are key factors to watch for any lithium player. "These factors will ultimately determine the lithium incumbents of the future," he added. For Jeary, government subsidies and OEM pledges will be important in determining EV uptake. "Any announcements related to mine expansions or restarts will also be important for determining supply over the next few years." Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates! Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article. Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence. Cobalt Market Update: Q1 2021 in Review What happened to cobalt in Q1 2021? Our cobalt market update outlines key market developments and explores what could happen moving forward. Click here to read the latest cobalt market update. Battery metals have been making news headlines over the past few months as widespread interest in electric vehicles (EVs) continues to surge. Cobalt prices saw an uptick during the first three months of the year on the back of strong demand for the key EV battery raw material. Read on to learn what happened in the cobalt market in Q1, including the main supply and demand dynamics and what market participants are expecting for the rest of the year. © 2021 12 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 Cobalt market update: Price performance Despite the coronavirus pandemic, which broke out in earnest during March of last year, cobalt prices showed unexpected resilience in the face of uncertainty throughout 2020. After a year of relative stability, a combination of tight supply and rising demand from the battery industry saw prices outperform expectations for the quarter, Greg Miller of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence told the Investing News Network (INN). "I think the main surprise was the strength of demand in Q1," he said. Prices so far this year have been strong for a number of reasons, with Harry Fisher of CRU Group pointing to stockpiling from China's State Reserve Bureau, EV market demand, raw material logistics issues in South Africa and a positive post-COVID-19 outlook as the main drivers. "The sulfate premium has been particularly high, reflecting both strong EV market sentiment as well as continued weakness in the European metal market," he told INN. "Cobalt metal prices have been weak relative to raw material prices, leading to some Chinese metal producers temporarily halting production in early 2021, or switching to sulfate production to benefit from higher prices." This is not the first time the cobalt market has seen a price spike, with the current rally reminding seasoned battery metals investors of what happened during 2017 and early 2018. Commenting on how the current increase is different from what the market saw a few years back, Miller said the difference now is that demand is real and it's here. "Much of what happened in 2017/2018 was driven by bullish sentiment for cobalt due to excitement about the growing demand from the battery industry. Whilst the sentiment was real, true demand was not, and when EV sales in China began to slow due to a decreasing subsidy regime, prices crashed." For his part, CRU’s Fisher said 2018 prices were driven by premature speculation about EV demand, a bottleneck in the intermediates market and stockpiling of metal. © 2021 13 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 "The drivers differ this time due to robust demand (particularly from EVs and not too premature this time) and sulfate, not metal, prices leading the growth," he said. The CRU analyst expects less price volatility going forward due to reduced market speculation, although Benchmark’s Miller said price volatility will likely continue to some degree. "But I think it will be more tempered going forward," Miller said. "(That’s) because there is now a growing recognition from major players in the supply chain that a long-term approach to pricing is necessary and that price spikes, such as 2017/2018, will only serve to further damage cobalt’s reputation." Cobalt market update: Supply and demand Cobalt is an essential element in the batteries used to power EVs, with EV sales remaining strong in China, Europe and the US at the start of 2021. Low-cost EV models have been particularly popular in China, primarily relying on lower-cost lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathodes, according to Fisher. "LFP has regained market share in the last 12 to 18 months, and this will have a small negative impact on cobalt demand," he said to INN. "Overall though our EV demand outlook has been strengthened, which more than offsets this.” Speaking about demand, Miller said it went from strength to strength in January and February, before slowing in March as prices began to drift from highs in late February. "Although we saw demand slow in late Q1/early Q2, I expect demand to pick up once restocking activity picks up later in the quarter," he added. Looking over to supply, availability is expected to improve as logistics issues in Africa ease and several operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continue to ramp up production, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. "However, with most major producers locking their supply into long-term contracts, spot availability is still expected to remain relatively tight going forward," Miller said. In the medium term, Fisher pointed out that investment in mined supply is required. "The DRC will remain the major producer with continued medium-term supply growth, but significant risks remain around the timeline of Mutanda’s restart," he said. "This could have fundamental implications on the overall market balance." © 2021 14 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 Top producer Glencore (LSE:GLEN) closed Mutanda, the world’s largest cobalt mine, in late 2019, saying it was no longer economically viable due to the lower price environment at the time. Additional supply is also expected from new high-pressure acid leaching capacity in Indonesia, albeit with risks around its technical complexity and ramp-up timeline, Fisher said. Questions around artisanal supply have also emerged, with analysts expecting increased artisanal supply to come to the market over the coming months. "However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the battery industry to accept artisanal supply due to heightened awareness over the environmental, social and governance risks associated with such supply," Miller explained to INN. In March, the DRC, the world’s top cobalt producer, kicked off operations at Entreprise Générale du Cobalt (EGC), which has monopoly rights to the purchase and sale of the country’s hand-mined cobalt. The state-owned company will sell cobalt hydroxide under a five year deal with trading house Trafigura Group, which will provide financing for the Congolese company. "I think the formalization of artisanal mining is certainly positive and provides greater transparency to the sector," Miller said. "However, it has the potential to add a further layer of complexity to the supply chain and may limit the ability of artisanal supply to act as ‘swing supply’ in times of market tightness." Similarly, Fisher said EGC’s release of new responsible sourcing standards is a positive step to ensure better-regulated, traceable and ethical artisanal supply from the DRC. "This should allow more consistent supply to support price stability," he said. "However, there are a large number of new regulations for miners, processors and traders, which may limit the flexibility of the artisanal mining sector to react quickly to price volatility as seen in the past. " Cobalt market update: What’s ahead? Looking ahead at what could be in store for cobalt prices, Fisher said market sentiment is relatively stable at present. "We expect prices to maintain or adjust down slightly," he said. "Cobalt intermediate prices are likely to decrease as port logistics in South Africa recover following COVID-19 restriction disruptions." © 2021 15 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 CRU expects sulfate prices to maintain their premium over metals prices with continued EV market growth and some uncertainty around the recovery of European metal end-use markets, particularly aerospace applications. For Benchmark’s Miller, after the significant price increases seen in Q1, prices in Q2 are expected to be more muted as the market stabilizes. "I think investors should pay attention to the uptrend in global EV sales as a key driver of demand in the market," he added. In terms of factors to watch out for in Q2, Fisher said South African logistics impacting cobalt intermediates supply to China will be key to keep an eye on. In addition, any early indications of the impact of the EGC in the DRC and capacity announcements from the Chinese refined sector (both metal and chemical) could be catalysts in the next few months. Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates! Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article. Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence. Cobalt Market Update: Q2 2021 in Review What happened to cobalt in Q2 2021? Our cobalt market update outlines key market developments and explores what could happen moving forward. Click here to read the previous cobalt market update. Battery metals have been making news headlines for the past few months as widespread interest in electric vehicles (EVs) continues to surge. © 2021 16 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 Cobalt prices saw an uptick during the first months of the year and stabilized in the second quarter, with strong demand seen for the key EV battery raw material. Read on to learn what happened in the cobalt market in Q2, including the main supply and demand dynamics and what market participants are expecting for the rest of the year. Cobalt market update: Price performance During the first quarter of the year, cobalt prices outperformed expectations due to tight supply and rising demand from the battery industry. Speaking with the Investing News Network (INN) about how cobalt performed in the second quarter, Harry Fisher of CRU Group said cobalt metal prices remained relatively steady through Q2 as expected. European cobalt metal prices averaged around US$21 per pound in Q2, a similar level to Q1. Prices adjusted down slightly through the quarter from a high of US$23 due to weaker spot market activity. "European prices continued to be below Chinese prices, as has been the case for almost all of 2021," Fisher told INN. "Chinese sulfate prices fell slightly below metal prices from the start of April after remaining at a premium since November 2020." After prices rose early in Q1, end users purchased ahead of their requirements. "This led to a period of destocking, weaker end-use demand and spot market activity through much of Q2, putting some downward pressure on prices," Fisher said. After a strong start to the year, cobalt prices experienced corrections in Q2 in response to limited buying activity across the supply chain, Greg Miller of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence told INN. "The downturn in activity across the quarter was attributable to several factors, notably the impact of elevated consumer inventory levels, which were accumulated in Q1 due to fears over supply security," he said. "Also uncertainty over demand headwinds, particularly the impact of the global chip shortage on consumer electronic demand and continued weakness in demand from industrial sectors." Cobalt market update: Supply and demand As seen in Q1, cobalt demand growth continues to be led by EVs and other battery markets. © 2021 17 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 "In other end-use sectors, traditional industrial applications are expected to continue their recovery as major economies push forward with COVID-19 vaccinations and relaxing restrictions," Fisher said. The aerospace sector remains a key area of uncertainty, with demand still significantly down compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. "With increased flight activity likely in Europe and North America in the second half of this year, we may start to see some recovery in this sector, but it will take time before it returns to normal levels of activity," Fisher commented to INN. Looking ahead, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects overall cobalt demand to continue to grow for the rest of 2021. "Alongside increasing demand from the battery industry in response to rising EV sales, demand from the superalloy industry is also expected to pick up in Q4 as international travel begins to recover towards pre-COVID-19 levels in light of the global vaccine rollout," Miller said. In terms of supply, major news came in Q2 when top producer Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) confirmed the reopening of Mutanda by the end of 2021. Mutanda is one of the largest cobalt mines, and was put on care and maintenance due to low cobalt prices in 2019. "We don’t expect this to have any impact on the market in 2021, but it does remove a key risk from the outlook," Fisher said. "If Mutanda’s return had been delayed, then it would have significantly impacted the market balance in the medium term." Commissioning of Mutanda will begin in 2021, but production will not start until mid- to late 2022, with only small volumes expected. The ramp up will be gradual over the medium term, the analyst added. Similarly, Miller believes the return of production at the mine is unlikely to result in oversupply in the cobalt market, with much of the material expected to be used to service Glencore’s long-term contracts. In terms of overall supply, CRU does not foresee any major changes for the rest of 2021. "Some Chinese refiners are still reducing or pausing metal output due to general market weakness, and prioritizing chemical production instead," Fisher said. "PT Lygend in Indonesia has successfully commissioned Phase 1 of its high-pressure acid leach, with Phase 2 expected in October." Meanwhile, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects supply availability to improve in the second half of the year in light of new projects entering production in the © 2021 18 The Battery Metals Market in 2021 Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s top-producing country; those include Wanbao Mining’s Pumpi project. The asset is designed to produce around 5,000 tonnes of cobalt hydroxide per year on a metal content basis. In addition, the continued ramp up of existing projects, such as ERG’s RTR and Glencore’s Kamoto Copper Company, and Ambatovy returning to the market after a lengthy stoppage, will contribute to supply for the rest of 2021. "Further to this, the logistics delays impacting the supply chain in late 2020 and early Q1 now appear largely to have been resolved," Miller said. One key topic that is starting to get more and more attention is recycling. However, Fisher explained that recycling of lithium-ion batteries is still not economic at a commercial scale. "But it's becoming increasingly important to understand as more EVs (and other battery applications) are sold and will eventually need to be recycled," he said. "Cobalt processing waste is recycled in China, but volumes are not well recorded at present." For his part, Miller said recycling could help to mitigate some of the supply gaps that are forecast to emerge as demand from the EV sector soars. "However, the ability of battery recycling to plug emerging supply gaps fundamentally depends on a degree of scale that is unlikely to emerge until after 2030, where Benchmark forecasts cobalt from secondary sources to account for more than 15 percent of total supply for the first time." Cobalt market update: What’s ahead? As the second half of the year kicks off, there are a few catalysts investors interested in cobalt should keep an eye out for. For Fisher, price dynamics between cobalt metal and sulfate, as well as Europe and China, continue to provide clues on market movements. "European prices have started to rise in early Q3 for example, indicating improved activity and market conditions," he said. "After a slow Q2, spot market activity is likely to improve as demand recovers after a period of destocking." Overall economic recovery post-COVID-19 will remain another important factor for cobalt, as it will lead to strengthening industrial and manufacturing activity and increased levels of domestic and international air travel, Fisher said. © 2021 19