The Swinging Beebs Ya moms spot Clarksville Tenn (900)-800-7000 $UPWK Bull Thesis 28th October 2025 $UPWK Up work is an online freelance website where individuals can go to offer their service or purchase someone else's service, or both! Founded 2013 Market Cap 2.3B P/E - 9.2 Peer Average P/E - 29X P/S - 2.9 Peer Average P/S - .7X Current Stock Price $17 Discounted Cash Flow model places this stock at 52% undervalued with a fair value of $36 The street is betting this company cannot use their future cash flow effectively and keeping this stock at a low value. (I believe this is a large mistake) Analyst forecasting UPWK will grow at a -10% rate the next three years. This bull case will show why I believe that is wrong at least for the next year. SWOT (Reduced) Strengths - Macro landscape gives this business a ginormous edge in certain periods and vice versa, I believe we are entering a great period for this company. (High Inflation High Unemployment) -Currently keeps more cash than debt. -Return on Equity of 40% (Considered Outstanding) Weaknesses - This freelance model lacks the ability to secure high value clientele which is important in creating longer term contracts which they can profit from consistently. Opportunities - New verticals are there if they can execute, most of their business is pretty simple, brokering transactions on their website. Being that its their website there are many more ways they can increase PPC (Profit per customer) Threats - Emerging niche freelance brokering platforms are becoming more and more popular which threatens market share. Let's take a look at some growth metrics Revenue- How much cash the company brought in through business activities Net Income- Revenue minus expenses. This is Net Profit Free Cash Flow- How much cash the business has on hand to use for anything needed Revenue One of the cleanest clear uptrends you can ask for, an average increase of 3.8% for the past 19 quarters. Most of this was driven by the employment crisis that stemmed from Covid. More on that part later. Up Work actually makes its money when services are exchanged on their platform. So more active users in a high inflationary period where consumers need a cheaper option, Up work will thrive. We will wrap up with this but, doesn't it seem like we are about to enter the golden zone for $UPWK? High inflation, the white house claims there to be none but prices have obviously increased, says most consumer surveys. Mass layoffs from big tech as they push towards a more robotics heavy work force. Shit + Shit = Gold for UPWK, freelancers offer services for cheaper than larger companies since they have less overhead which marks it attractive to the struggling consumer. Scroll lower to see some recent large layoffs. Net Income Net Income has been interesting. Profitability was achieved in 2023 Q1 and has since remained on an uptrend. Net margins hang out in the mid teens while gross stay in the mid 70s. Since profitability they have seen each QOQ change be positive in net margins, barring the spike in 2024. Research and Development is the biggest cost, I find this to be a positive based on their historical ROE. Free Cash Flow Free cash flow is seen as a growth metric because a company who can produce great numbers in this aspect now has the ability to reinvest. They are companies who can PRODUCE CASH. And when companies have lots of it, they are free to expand verticals and initiatives. Interesting to see UPWK at a highly elevated level of FCF at the moment with massive layoffs and a hurting consumer. This company also has historically returned incredible numbers on its cash. (40%) return on equity. The fact that they are at an elevated cash position at the moment is reassuring. Recently Announced Lay-offs -UPS (48,000 employees) -Amazon (30,000 employees) -Intel (24,000 employees) -Microsoft (15,000 employees) -Salesforce (4,000 employees) -Target (1,800 employees) Amazon even came out and talked about how they plan to replace 75% of their work force with robots in the future. The era where AI and robotics steals jobs is now. From an efficiency standpoint it makes sense. Whether we see it in the data sooner or later, markets will have this priced in quickly which we have already seen recently. The stock has surged over 40% since I last mentioned it. I want to point out what the performance of this business was last time we had an employment crisis (COVID) Aug 20th 2020 Top line surprise of 68% bottom line surprise of 9% Nov 4th 2020 Top line surprise of 171% bottom line surprise of 7% Feb 23rd 2021 Top line surprise of 1093% (Not a typo) bottom line surprise of 9% May 4th 2021 Top line surprise of 1326% bottom line surprise of 5% July 29th 2021 Top line surprise of 178% bottom line surprise of 3% Wed 27th 2021 Top line surprise of 343% bottom line surprise of 1% They continued to have surprises in the 30-50 percent range on the way down from their insane stock price run. Note the steady decrease in US job openings yet steady rise in the S&P. Business are staying highly efficient on a lower employment level ever since the first LLM was released (Chat GPT) Also notice the last time job openings significantly decreased, Covid. $UPWK stock in that time period returned 1050% Trough to peak. This time the decrease was quiet yet in my opinion significantly more SIGNIFICANT. Because now the argument is how long will this go on? This is uncharted territory. But if the streets want to suppress this price due to analysts seeing -10% YOY growth for the next 3 years let them. I don't see a single possibility where they are right. How I'm positioning myself. Earnings are this Monday November 3rd 2025, I will be positioning myself here with size. You can call it an earnings bet. I believe it to be a highly calculated risk. They are aware better than most of the fluctuations of the job market. I believe they will be raising guidance just based on this alone. But I'm sure there has already been an influx of new users trying to earn an extra buck. And hey this will be posted beforehand so you can check back on this one!! Current price is $17.35 Lets look at the technicals and my price targets, as well as where we will have to manage risk. This is a weekly chart. One bar is one week's worth of price data. You can see we have been building this large base for over 2 years now. We broke through only to be rejected the first time. I believe earnings get us through this time. On our daily chart we also have both momentum indicators ticking up. If you want to play this safe you can wait for a daily close above $18.25 to enter. Risk should be a new low under $15.75 Price Targets These are derived from Elliot wave theory, suggesting a stock moves in certain mathematical distances depending on previous moves. My first price target is $25 44% upside from current levels. I wont have another price target at this moment as it would be based on nothing concrete likely. (We wont know the macro landscape) I plan on this being a medium term trade, as the job market will inevitably see strength again. Not Financial Advice