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2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors. BCRX: Leverage Those WallStBets On This Brilliant BioTech Feb. 19, 2021 8:12 PM ET | About: Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALXN), BCRX, REGN, Includes: AMC, GME Summary A Recent Market Pump for Reddit WallStBets Crew Ran BCRX Stock up 63% earlier last week but has since sold back off. The move was an attempt to force the manipulative shorts that have plagued the stock for months to cover. While the short covering thesis may or may not have played out, the stock has gained more traction and more eyes. "Come for the short pump, stay for the fundamentals" Many of the new eyes are starting to see the real value, and they absolutely should. Near term catalysts will vault the stock much higher than Reddit could accomplish, but it will be a sustainable heavy move backed by soaring fundamentals. Biocryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) has been covered by our investment group previously in an article that can be read here . At that time, we felt very compelled to tell the story of this emerging biotech that will soon be well on it's way to large cap status. Our thesis still remains in tact, but we wanted to take this opportunity to share another breakdown provided by some of the "reddit crew" investors that wanted to show the difference that BCRX is NOTHING LIKE a GME or AMC pump. I asked their permission and was given it, so here it goes. Please note the majority of this was taken from the following linked article with author permission: Reddit Article Here Pipeline and Addressable Market Orladeyo ™ (berotralstat) Oral Pill Orladeyo is the first Oral approved treatment used to prevent swelling attacks in people with hereditary angioedema (HAE), disease which is estimated to affect 1 in 50,000 people. Berotralstat is currently approved in two countries, on December the 3rd it got approved by the FDA in USA, and on January the 22nd in Japan. The company expects approval of Orladeyo in Europe to happen early Q2. Before oral Orladeyo was approved for HAE, patients would only have treatments that required usage of needles. This dramatically reduced the quality of their life, making some of them quit using the treatment. That's the main reason why Orladeyo is a game changer. After the approval, surveys on patients were done, showing a large number of new patients that were not treated before due to needles, now willing to be treated taking oral form Orladeyo pills. https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 1/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha As it's shown in the page 13th of the January 2021 Corporate Presentation (page 13), in their recently undergone survey, 59% of the patients expressed high willingness to use Orladeyo, and that number rose to 71% with physician recommendation. Additional surveys were taken on patients using treatments from the competitors "Cynrize, Haegarda, Takhzyro" and the results were the following ones (page 14). USA Patient Population In the USA there are 10,000 patients, 7,500 diagnosed and treated, 1,700 diagnosed but not treated, 600 treated but not diagnosed. Physicians expect to prescribe Orladeyo for over 41% of HAE patients. Conservatively thinking, taking 7,500 patients out of the total 10,000 pool in the USA, with over 41% of patients prescription ( page 16 ) we would conservatively aim for 3,075 patients. Japan Patient Population https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 2/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha On November the 5th Biocryst undergone an agreement with Torii Pharmaceuticals. A local Japanese company that will be in charge of getting new patients to be treated with Orladeyo in Japan and commercializing it. After Orladeyo received the approval in Japan, Goichi Matsuda, president of Torii said the following words "Until now, HAE patients in Japan had no therapies approved to prevent attacks, so the approval of Orladeyo marks a significant advance in HAE treatment", "We are pleased to have the opportunity to bring the first oral treatment option to Japanese HAE patients and are actively preparing for the commercialization". Japan has 2,500 HAE patients, and Biocryst conservatively expects to at least reach 500 patients this year. This is all in addition to the $15M milestone payment Biocryst has now received per the agreement inked with Torii earlier in the process. Europe Patient Population It's estimated to be around 12,000 HAE patients in Europe. Following the physician prescription of over 41% of patients to prescribe (page 16) for Orladeyo. We get a total of 4,920 patients in Europe. Peramivir ™ (Rapivab) Peramivir (Rapivab) is an antiviral drug for the treatment of influenza. Peramivir is a neuraminidase inhibitor, acting as a transition-state analogue inhibitor of influenza neuraminidase and thereby preventing new viruses from emerging from infected cells. It is approved for intravenous administration. On 19 December 2014, the FDA approved Peramivir to treat influenza infection in adults. Peramivir has also been approved in Japan and South Korea and is available in Japan as Rapiacta and in South Korea as Peramiflu. The U.S. government (department of Health and Human Services) gave BioCryst Pharmaceuticals more than $77 million to finish the Phase III clinical development of Peramivir. In 2009 the department of Health and Human Services had already given about $180 million to the program. In 2013 the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA/HHS) released new funding under the current $234.8 million contract to enable completion of a New Drug Application filing for intravenous (IV) Peramivir. Rapivab is a bio-defense drug that is often stockpiled by the government. Last time being September the 26th, with a purchase of $14 million. Galidesivir - BCX4430 The NIAID and BARDA have been funding the development and testing of Galidesivir for over 15 years as they recognize its importance in preparation for all future pandemics. Recently, the 31st of August, 2020 NIAID Awarded $44 Million Contract to Advance Development of Galidesivir. Besides COVID-19, the world suffers from 200 million infections per year from filoviruses (Ebola, Marburg), flaviviruses (Hepatitis C, West Nile, Dengue, Jap Encephalitis, Yellow Fever, TBEV, OHFV, and Zika), arenaviruses, bunyaviruses, orthomyxoviruses, picornaviruses and paramyxoviruses (think RSV). Galidesivir is the first antiviral that has ever shown such potential, and to top it off, it is now known from the Phase I trial and now the Brazil part 1 trial to clearly be safe and show dose-sensitive effects in people. https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 3/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha Based on multiple animal studies, it works equally effectively as a pill that is stable for years at room temperature. Not only that, but this antiviral, unlike any of the others, has excellent penetration of the blood brain barrier as was seen in the macaque Zika virus study. Efficacy Phase I safety trials in humans had shown that it was safe and well tolerated .NIAID on April 9th 2020 its expansion of the Brazilian yellow fever trial to include three cohorts of 8 severely affected COVID-19 patients, each being given a different IV dose regimen . Unfortunately, but obvious in hindsight, this trial was from the beginning under powered to determine a clinical benefit. The patients were followed for eight weeks after their treatments. The company on December 22nd announced that all three doses were perfectly safe for the patients. In addition, they found that patients had a dose-sensitive reduction in virus levels in their lungs. They went on to say that an animal model, which will likely be published shortly, showed that Galidesivir significantly reduced COVID- 19-associated lung damage. Despite all this and even though the trial was not even powered to detect a clinical difference in the patients, the NIAID, after finding an insignificant difference in outcomes between the small numbers of drug-treated and placebo- treated patients, inexplicably decided to discontinue clinical trials of it for COVID- 19, to the great confused dismay of investors and perhaps even taken advantage of by short hedge funds who brought the stock down in late December. Bear in mind that during this trial, one of the most lethal strains of COVID-19 we know of was affecting the Brazilian trial sites, later known now as the P.1 or Manaus strain, and could have easily negatively affected the clinical outcomes of this small trial too given that the trial was focused on very sick patients more likely to carry this bad strain. FOP - BCX9250 FOP is an ultra-rare, severely disabling condition characterized by the irregular formation of bone outside the normal skeleton, also known as heterotopic ossification (HO). HO can occur in muscles, tendons and soft tissue. Patients with FOP become bound by this irregular ossification over time, with restricted movement and fused joints, resulting in deformities and premature mortality. There are currently no approved treatments for FOP. There are an estimated 3,500 to 9,000 patients worldwide, with 900 diagnosed so far. Currently there aren’t any approved treatments. Market size for this treatment is estimated to reach 500M-900M in 2025, growing to 3B in 2028 as more patients are diagnosed. With a price ranging from $900K-$1M/year. Last December the 21st Biocryst announced positive Phase 1 results “BCX9250 was safe and well tolerated at all doses studied, with linear and dose- proportional exposure supporting once-daily dosing.”. “In preclinical studies, BCX9250 demonstrated potency for the target kinase, selectivity, safety and strong suppression of HO in animal models.” Oral Factor D inhibitor - BCX9930 BCX9930 is a novel, oral, potent and selective small molecule inhibitor of Factor D currently in Phase 1 clinical development for the treatment of complement- mediated diseases. https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 4/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha The 3rd of August 2020, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Fast Track designation for oral Factor D inhibitor, BCX9930. Staff Excitement Staff team from Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc seem to be really positive and excited about the incoming future of BCX9930. Such excitement has been seen in the last conference calls where staff members such as the CEO Jon P. Stonehouse, or the Vice President, William P. Sheridan would say the following words. “Embarrassment of riches”. “We agree with Alexion that creating a potent specific and great oral Factor D inhibitor is a great challenge, and we are happy we have one” , “My only concern is i have no concerns”, “Pipeline in a molecule”, “My aim is to make c5 inhibitors obsolete”, “This is Big”. Efficacy level The key for efficacy with this kind of treatment is improving the number of Hb Hemoglobin levels. BCX9930 showed 3.8g/dL improvement ( page 31 ). The competence, Novartis showed 2.87g/dL improvement and Alexion 2.4-2.6g/dL. On December the 6th, 2020 BCX9930 data was released showing high potency and specificity for alternative pathway complement. “BCX9930 monotherapy has the potential to inhibit both intra-vascular and extra- vascular hemolysis”, “In the study, BCX9930 was highly specific for the alternative pathway and, after oral dosing of BCX9930 in primates, alternative pathway activity was completely suppressed.” “These data demonstrate that BCX9930 is a highly potent and specific orally bio- available Factor D inhibitor with potential for treatment of patients with PNH and other alternative pathway mediated diseases,” said Dr. William Sheridan” Alternative Pathway What makes BCX9930 be a game changer, is the wide spectrum of Alternative Pathway Dysregulation disease it can treat. It can treat up to 8 diseases (page 26) as of now, that is why insiders call it “Pipeline in a molecule”. The diseases it treats are the following ones. https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 5/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha PNH (Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria) aHUS (Atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome) ANCA vasculitis (antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis) Lupus Nephritis IgAN vasculitis C3G (Glomerulonephritis) PMN (Primary membranous nephropathy) IgAN (IgA nephropathy) Potential Market Size By 2025 Assuming BCX9930 will be approved by 2025, and it will be able to treat those diseases, we reach the following conclusion. The potential market size BCX9930 will be aiming for by 2025 scores up to 44.53B/year. Being that number obtained summing up the following ones. “"PNH Treatment Market Size Worth $5.8 Billion by 2025" “"The global systemic lupus erythematosus market size is expected to reach USD 3.08 billion by 2025" “"aHUS, having in mind the disease prevalence (2 and 5.5)/MM, and the disease being treated with Soliris - 500,000$/ year. The worldwide market size should range between ( $7.5B and $20.5B)" We take 7.5B as conservative. “"Vasculitis treatment market size forecast to reach $743.2M by 2025" “"IgAN, having in mind the 1/3,707 incidence rate, and the yearly cost of the drug $12,456 we are aiming for a market size of $4,660,088,544" “"Having in mind C3G can be treated with Soliris and it costs $500,000 a year. Summing up all those 45,700 patients the market size we aim for is 22.85B" All this data can be more found in more detail via the following google sheet mentioned before. Phase II study Despite the company not PR'ing the start of the phase II study of BCX9930, the official page of clinacal trials, show that the start of phase II study was December the 18th, 2020. This is extremely bullish since it reasures our thoughts that Ph I data readout will be good and enough to keep the study going. https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 6/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha Unique Company Management The company was founded in 1996 and is currently led by Jon P. Stonehouse CEO, a renowned pharmaceutical executive with over 20 years of thought leadership. Stonehouse previously served as the Senior Vice President of Corporate Development at Merck. Among his numerous accomplishments, Stonehouse was responsible for the game-changing acquisition of Serono S.A in 2007, the largest biotechnology company in Europe at the time. What makes Jon Stonehouse a unique CEO is the dedication he has towards patients through his commitment to working faster in order to bring life-saving rare disease therapeutics to patient populations around the world. His passion is further substantiated by the note he had pasted on his monitor during the 2021 JPM Conference Valuation and Revenue Expectations Orladeyo Value Each patient will have to pay 485K/year to access the drug in USA. In Japan and Europe the pricing system changes since pricing and jurisdictions work in a different way there. Making it 200K/year. With this yearly prices and the amount of patients defined before, we get the following results. 3,075 x $485K = $1,491,375,000 500 x $200K = $100,000,000 https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 7/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha 4,920 x $200K = $984,000,000 Summing it all up we get $2,575,375,000. From that number we have to subtract $74,625,000 making it a total of $2,500,750,000. The subtraction is due to the royalty agreements with Torii Pharmaceuticals and Royalty Pharma. In the following link, you will have access to a google sheet, where yearly revenues generated by Orladeyo is estimated. A wide range of multipliers regarding the total patient pool that Orladeyo could capture is added, ranging from ( 10%, 20%, 41% and 75%).Revenues have been estimated with the actual price of Orladeyo in 2021 $485K/year, it also has an estimation looking forward to 2025, on how the price of the drug will rise due to inflation. Finally there is a chart that gives an idea of what the the market cap could reach to be using revenue multipliers. Having in mind the discussed numbers before, Orladeyo alone will be generating $2,500,750,000 a year, using the average mid-cap Biotech company multiplier x7. We get a total of $17,505,250,000, meaning an increase of $99.40 in the stock price. Peramivir Value With all the explanations given above and having in mind Peramivir is a government bio-defense drug the value of Rapivab can not be less than $750,000,000 conservatively speaking. Peramivir value: $4.258 Price Per Share Galidesivir Value https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 8/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha First of all, we must have in mind that Galidesivir is a Government funded bio- defense drug, that aims to treat a wide range of viruses as explained before. Its global stockpiling for future pandemics is also an absolute certainty given its long-term stability. With all the explanations being given, conservatively speaking, we estimate Galidesivir cannot be worth less than $2.5B, this is $14.20 price per share. Galidesivir value: $14.20 Price Per Share BCX9250 Value To understand the market here as it's practically uncharted territory with zero approved treatments, lets look at the competitive landscape. There are two drug companies in the running against Biocryst for the first approved FOP drug and they both have major problems. Let’s first talk about Regeneron’s drug, REGN2477 (Garetosmab). It’s an antibody that binds Activin A. Activin A activates the BMP (Bone Morphogenetic Protein) signaling pathway that is important for the formation of bone, relevant to FOP patients because they’re producing heterotopic bone from their cartilage (AKA a process called heterotopic ossification (HO)). So, it makes perfect sense to target this molecule as Regeneron is doing… So Regeneron ran a Phase 2 44 FOP patient double blind trial of Garetosmab. After 28 weeks, as announced on January 9, 2020 (Regeneron Announces Data), patients taking the drug had 25% less lesion volume based on PET scans and 90% fewer new lesions. Flareups went down by 50%. The treated patients also had a lot of side effects, more nose bleeding, loss of eyebrows, and a lot of skin infections and abscesses. So there were a lot of problems because Activin is important for a lot of processes beyond just heterotopic ossification. BMP signaling is also critically important for the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, immune system, skin and every other tissue, so it would not be surprising at all if inhibiting it could have even more serious life-threatening side effects, no? Well, guess what? After that rosy announcement, as time went by and patients continued on the drug, they started to die. On November 2nd, 2020, the company announced that several patients had died and they were trying to figure out why (Regeneron slams the brakes on rare bone disease trial after patient deaths). Hmm. We still don’t know how many of the patients in the treatment arm died, and if all of them were in the treatment or the placebo arm, but it doesn’t sound good, let’s just say, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the study is shelved indefinitely. https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 9/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha Now let’s talk about the other drug being tested by Ipsen, known as palovarotene. This drug has a different mechanism in that it’s a retinoic acid receptor gamma (RAR-y) agonist. Ipsen paid $1.3 billion for Clementia in 2019 just for this drug (Ipsen buyout deal). Clementia bought the drug in 2013 from Roche after Roche found that it was useless against emphysema. In January 2020, the Independent Data Monitoring Committee paused their Phase III “MOVE” study of 111 patients saying that it was futile and would never result in significant results. However, the company kept trying to analyze the results, and on August 25th, Ipsen announced that after re-analysis, the results showed mean annualized new HO volume was reduced by 62% and that the company was going to file for an NDA (Ipsent Presents Results). This sounds great, right? I suppose, but neither I nor Ipsen investors were surprised or positive from this news. In fact the stock had zero reaction to the news (see the attached graph below), so I bet they were not convinced. Why? Because finding that new annualized lesion volume is less is a very tiny thing after just a few months. It involves a lot of extrapolation and is not likely to be easily measurable—hence why the IDMC pulled the plug in the first place. I bet the margins of error were high. More worrisome, every single patient had a bad reaction to the drug. 27% of the younger patients had epiphyseal closure (their bones fused too early). 22.2% had severe side-effects from the drug, 45.5% had moderate side-effects and 32.2% had mild. That means everyone. I seriously doubt the FDA is going to take this drug seriously if they do get an NDA. Well, guess what? Volunteers on Biocryst’s oral FOP drug in its Phase I trial had zero side-effects. Their FOP animal model data was also spectacular. Now we wait to see what happens with its plans for its Phase II trial, because it may very well end up being the only game in town. Because this disease is so severe and the other two treatments for all intents and purposes halted, it is likely that Biocryst will end up with yet another orphan and fast-tracked drug six months after the results of its Phase II drug come out later this year. So, do you believe that a failed emphysema drug with a relatively low chance of success for FOP and with 100% patient side effects was essentially bought for $1.3 billion here, and the entirety of Biocryst with a likely far superior drug for the same disease is currently only valued at next to nothing? Drugs that are in Phase 1 studies are said to have a 10% chance of making it to the market. Following that, BCX9250 as of now should be valued at $1bn = $5.71 per share, but with SO much more promise ahead. https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 10/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha BCX9250 value: $5.71 Price Per Share BCX9930 Valuation Having in mind BCX9930 is a potential best-in-class treatment, Alexion got bought out for 39B mainly for their “Factor D” c5 inhibitor and the yearly market size it aims for in 2025 rounds 44.53B. BCX9930 valuation can not be less than a 30% of Alexion’s buy out price, this is 11.7B meaning $66.44. I want to make clear that once the drug is approved and generating revenue, the average x7 revenue can be used, making it much more valuable than it’s now. Do not forget data readout is due Q1. BCX9930 value: $66.44 Price Per Share Unique Company Management The company was founded in 1996 and is currently led by Jon P. Stonehouse CEO, a renowned pharmaceutical executive with over 20 years of thought leadership. Stonehouse previously served as the Senior Vice President of Corporate Development at Merck. Among his numerous accomplishments, Stonehouse was responsible for the game-changing acquisition of Serono S.A in 2007, the largest biotechnology company in Europe at the time. https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 11/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha What makes Jon Stonehouse a unique CEO is the dedication he has towards patients through his commitment to working faster in order to bring life-saving rare disease therapeutics to patient populations around the world. His passion is further substantiated by the note he had pasted on his monitor during the 2021 JPM Conference Institutional Ownership Apart from having a stellar management team, what prospective investors should also pay close attention to is BioCryst’s rockstar institutional investor syndicate, which includes both generalist industry stalwarts such as State Street/BlackRock and sector-specialist biotech funds like Baker Brothers/Sarissa Capital. Making institutions reach to own 78.77% of the company. What should catch investors attention is Alex Denner, head of Sarissa Capital Management recently increasing his stake in the company, managing to own 5% of it. He is one of the most well known biotech investors in the industry. He is the largest inside shareholder of Biogen pharma, ticker BIIB, and notorious for not only finding incredibly deep value in preclinical companies, but for being an "active" vs passive role in their success. After taking large positions in his value finds, he becomes an advocate for high level decisions from management that unlock shareholder value. He speaks up against possible bad M&A deals and has been known to bring two companies together to facilitate other deals. Strong BO Buy Out Candidate First, we need to understand that several buyouts in the space Biocryst operates in have already occured and give the best basis of valuation due to real world comparisons. For example, Alexion's recent acquisition for it's Factor D inhibitor. Alexion Buy Out On December the 12th, 2020 Alexion announced that AstraZeneca was going to buy them for 39B. More than 90% of their revenue comes from their “Factor D” C5 inhibitor, being that the main reason why AstraZeneca wanted that buy out to happen. https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 12/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha You might think, why does this matter?. Well, remember we have a Factor D which has shown to be more effective than Alexion’s, and is able to treat more diseases than they do aswell. This buy out reflects how undervalued BCX9930 is. Apart from the buy out, i think it's essential to mention that Alexion bought Achillion's factor D when it was in ph 2 for $930MM. In 2019 Alexion's SOLIRIS® (eculizumab) net product sales were $3,946.4 million. Soliris is currently approved to treat PNH adn aHUS. Have in mind BCX9930 is able to treat 6 diseases more, aimming for a wider market size, and also having greater efficacy/safety. Using a biotech mid-cap x7 revenue multiplier $3,964B = $27,748B. meanning a SP value of $157.56 for BCRX. I want to make clear again that BCX9930 is said to be best in-class treatment and it's able to treat more diseases, this numbers could go much higher. As we have explained in the Institutional section before, all good bio-tech investors do know who Alexander J.Denner founder of Sarissa Capital is. After recently increasing his stake in BCRX, along with BlackRock, he now owns a 5.01% of Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Denner, has increased his position in BCRX by an stunning 789% in the last 3 quarters, showing strong conviction in the company. Since Denner opened his position in Alexion, it took him 5 months to close the buy out deal, as shown in the picture below. After this exhaustive analysis on the company, we can easily acknowledge that BCRX is more than an strong BO candidate. A buy out coming from BIIB, company where Denner forms part of the BOD board of directors, would make total sense in the following 2 years once BCX9930 Factor D phase II data is unveiled. Alexion's performance with Soliris As we have explained before, Alexion pharmaceuticals has a Factor D "c5" inhibitor called Soliris. This company could be the perfect example to have an idea of what we could expect from Biocryst's performance. From 2007 to 2014 Alexion's stock price grew a 1777%. Being valued at 10.5$ in 2007 and 186.6$ in 2014. Revenue generated by Alexion gradually grew up as their Factor D was approved to treat additional diseases, and the market size they captured got wider. Year Soliris AVG Stock Market Company Events Revenue Price Cap 2007 66.4M $18.6 $2.8bn Soliris Approval PNH https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 13/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha 2008 259M $18.06 $2.95bn Split 2:1 2009 368.8M $24.5 $4.2bn 2010 541M $40.2 $7.45bn 2011 783M $74.4 $13.10bn Split 2:1 / Soliris Approved for AHUS 2012 1134M $97.6 $19.5bn 2013 1,551M $131.7 $26.05bn 2014 2,234M $186.6 $37.10bn Biocryst Pharmaceuticals stock managing to do the SP move Alexion did, is more than doable with the unique pipeline it has. Having in mind Alexion made 66.4 MM revenue the first year while BCRX at least expects to generate 500 MM with Orladeyo, apart from it, additional revenue generated by Rapivab/Galidesivir https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 14/15 2/19/2021 Preview - Contributor Center | Seeking Alpha stock pilling. Incoming Earning Reports are meant to be potential catalysts for the company, gradually becoming more meaningful as the market size they capture with Orladeyo becomes wider. How The Company has De-Risked Itself Last December the 7th, 2020 BCRX announced they made a Royalty agreement with Royalty Pharma and Athyrium Capital Management. With this agreement BCRX was funded with $325,000,000 in order to support Orladeyo launch. Setting the company in an attractive position of not needing to do any more money risings "offerings". Jon Stonehouse CEO, also confirmed that the company will not need to do offerings anymore. The fact that the company is already generating revenue with Orladeyo is another strong evidence that confirms money risings will not be needed anymore. Current Risks While the company is mostly de-risked due to recent non dilutive financing and multiple approved drugs bringing in revenue, as with any biotech stock, the typical risks lie with the possibility of any trials not meeting endpoints. All these above mentioned values are based on the assumption of meeting endpoints and forwarding on indications. While the data in pre-clinicals and clinical trials conducted thus far has been stellar, there is always inherent risk in future data readouts not delivering positive outcomes. Future competition is also always a factor to consider. The rare disease spaces that Biocryst focuses on have very little therapeutic options for patients but they have other companies playing in those indications as well and have possible contenders for market share coming in the near future. Assuming their own clinical research supports forwarding them through approval as well. Conclusion After this exhaustive analysis, we come to the conclusion that BCRX sitting at $10.30 with a market cap of $1.82B is severely undervalued, and if we sum up the true value of the pipeline, it should be valued at $190.48 as the sum of all moving parts, representing a 1953% upside return. This stock price number will keep growing as we keep getting data updates from the on-going studies, making it an excellent long-term hold and buy out candidate. Once the given information on the company is aknowledged, realizing how heavily the company has been manipulated by institutions, constantly making short pressure bigger in order to move the stock into ridiculous price levels, to be able to accumulate more shares at premium prices. Should not be of anyone's surprise, as this is a true " Embarrassment of Riches", like insiders call it, and they aim to load as much as they can, at the very best premium prices. Total value: $190.48 Price Per Share Disclosure: I am/we are long BCRX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. https://seekingalpha.com/submission/preview/5553010 15/15