Notable Cal ls Research T h e purpose of this write up is to pin down what a fair valuation might be for F uboTV. Af ter reading the research from Mr. Greenfield, who is obviously trying to fuel a pani c sell - off type of move in a stock that has run up quite a bit, it makes sense to try to understand if his valuation claims hold an y water. The only available comparable valuation to F UBO I can find is Hulu Though It is an imperfect comparison for two reasons: 1 – Hulu + Live TV is not a pure - play Live TV streaming company. It also operates a large r on - demand a spect of their business which drives around $10 - $12 ARPU. Their Live TV segment drivers clos er to $70 ARPU, and the two seem to contribute somewhat evenly to top line revenue Growth is certainly being driven by their Live TV segment. 2 – Hulu is a private company , and t he re is only one transaction in recent history we can look at. In May of 2019, Hulu bought back 9. 5% of it s own company from AT&T at a $1 5 Billion valuation Let ’ s dig into what this could mean for FUBO ... Hulu bought back a 9.5% stake of its own company from AT&T in May of 2019 at a $15 Billion valuation. T his was a private transaction, and it ’ s safe to say that Hulu probably negotiated a VERy good deal for themselves as they were buyi ng s hares back in their OWN compan y In to appropriately compare Hulu ’ s valuation to FUBO s , we need to guess what Hulu ’ s valuation would be at that time if it were a publicly traded company I ’ m going to be conservative here and assume that if Hulu was a publ icly traded company in Mid - 2019 it ’ s valuation would be 2.5x t he $15 Billion valuation that was agreed to in the private transaction Under this assumption, if Hulu were a publicly traded company, at the time of that transaction public markets would value this company at $ 3 7.5 Billion. In the end of 2019, Hulu posted $700 Million in Ad Revenue and $1.3 Billion in Subscription revenue – for a grand total of $2 Billion . The transaction above was done 6 months prior to the year end ing 2019 , so a $3 7.5 Billion v al uation would i mply a 6 - month forward revenue multiple of roughly 18.75 times sales FuboTV has guided 2021 revenue to be $450 Million, and they will likely be at or above t hat run - rate by Q 3 2020 as that is t heir stronge st quarter A n 18.75 x val uation on next years revenue would value FUBO right at $8.4 4 Billion. With Ro ughly 150 Million shares fully diluted, this implies a price of $56 / share Now let s take some other factors into consideration, like growth rate: ANNUAL SUBSCRIBER GROWTH Hulu + Live TV Annu al Subscriber Growth: 28% 3.2 Million in Q4 2019 compared to 4.1 Million in Q4 2020 F uboTV Annual Subscriber Grow th: 67% FuboTV had 295 ,000 paying subscribers in Q3 2019 , and 455,000 paying subscribers in Q3 2020 ( FuboTV has not announced 4 th Quarter numbers yet, so we will look at Q3 20 19 and Q3 2020 numbers ) ANNUAL REVENUE GROWTH Hulu + Live TV Annual Revenue Growth: 35% $2 BLN in 2019 Compared to 2.7 Billion in 2020 F uboTV Annual Revenue Growth: 65% $ 147 Million in 2019 Compared to 245 Million in 2020 FINAL TA KE FUBO is growing at a faster clip than Hulu, an d has the prospect of sport s - betting on the horizon. But even without these 2 things factored in, based on H ulu ’ s valuation one could argue that FUBO should trade at $56 /share. We don ’ t know what H ulu would trade it if it were a public company, but it ’ s safe to say it would be substantially higher than if it were pri vate. M aybe faster growth plus the prospect of sports - betting adds another $4? That brings FUBO to $60 / share. Sources : Hulu Transaction wi th AT&T - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/14/comcast - has - agreed - to - sell - its - stake - in - hulu - in - 5 - years.html#:~:text=Hulu%20bought%20back%20a%209.5,the%20company%20at%20%2415%20bill ion Hulu Metrics: https://www.fiercevideo.com/operators/deeper - dive - how - youtube - tv - hulu - live - tv - and - others - stack - up - after - q1#:~:text=Hulu%20%2B%20Live%20TV%20is%20still,up%2065%25%20year%20over%20year https://www.cordcuttersnews.com/hulu - with - live - reaches - 4 - 1 - million - subscribers - holding - its - title - as - top - live - tv - streaming - service/ Fubo Metrics: https://www.sec.gov/cgi - bin/browse - edgar?CIK=1484769&owner=exclude https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200915006220/en/fuboTV - Reports - Strong - Momentum - Raises - Q3 - Subscriber - Guidance#:~:text=2020%20revenue%20guidance% 3A%20%24220%2D231,%25%20year%2Dover%2Dyea r