LEDGE 0001 THE NEW SPACE ECONOMY How space became an expanding commercial infrastructure and where the value actually sits Research / Data / Analysis Prepared for publication · 31 AUG 2026 ABSTRACT Space is no longer exclusively a government project. Launch providers, satellite operators, manufacturers, communications companies, Earth - observation firms, data companies and investors now form a large commercial ecosystem around Earth and beyond it. But the commonly used phrase “space economy” hides an important distinction: the value of space is not concentrated in rockets or astronauts. Much of the economic activity occurs in the infrastructure and services that satellites enable on Earth. In 2025, the Satellite Industry Association and BryceTech measured the global space economy at $429 billion, with the commercial satellite industry accounting for $303 billion, or 71%. The same year saw 325 orbital launches, 4,434 satellites deployed, and 14,266 operational satellites at year - end. At the same time, private capital is moving deeper into the sector. BryceTech recorded $10.9 billion of investment in space startups in 2025, across 235 deals and 208 companies. The result is a space industry increasingly defined not simply by exploration, but by infrastructure, connectivity, data, capital and recurring commercial services. 01 THE QUESTION What is the new space economy ? The traditional image of the space industry is : ROCKET → SPACECRAFT → MISSION The modern economic structure is considerably larger. A launch vehicle may place a satellite into orbit, but the satellite can then provide communications, navigation, Earth observation or other services for years. The economic chain therefore looks : CAPITAL ↓ MANUFACTURING ↓ LAUNCH ↓ ORBITAL INFRASTRUCTURE ↓ DATA / CONNECTIVITY / SERVICES ↓ CUSTOMERS 02 THE SCALE There is no single universally accepted number for the size of the space economy. The Satellite Industry Association's 2026 report, produced by BryceTech, puts the 2025 global space economy at $429 billion. Its methodology includes the commercial satellite industry as well as other space - related economic activity. The same report places commercial satellite activity at $303 billion, representing approximately 71% of the total. The European Space Agency's 2025 report measured the 2024 space economy differently, identifying approximately € 63 billion in upstream activity and € 408 billion in downstream activity. Space Foundation reported a substantially broader $613 billion global space economy for 2024, with commercial activity accounting for 78% of that total. These figures should not simply be averaged or compared as if identical datasets. The size of the space economy depends partly on what is counted as “space.” The economic activity directly associated with rockets and spacecraft is only part of the system. Navigation equipment, satellite communications, ground infrastructure, data services and other downstream activities can be much larger. 03 WHERE THE MONEY IS The 2025 satellite industry figures reveal the structure particularly clearly. Ground equipment including navigation equipment and network equipment generated $165.2 billion in 2025. Satellite services generated another $105 billion. Commercial launch services generated $12.4 billion. This produces a useful conclusion: The economic center of gravity is increasingly downstream. The rocket gets the infrastructure into space. The recurring value is often created by what that infrastructure enables afterward. 04 THE ORBITAL BUILDOUT The physical infrastructure is expanding rapidly. According to the 2026 State of the Satellite Industry Report, 325 launches took place globally in 2025, including 296 commercially procured satellite launches. Those launches deployed 4,434 satellites. By the end of the year, 14,266 operational satellites were in orbit. BryceTech's independent orbital - activity review similarly recorded 325 orbital launches and 4,544 spacecraft deployed in 2025. The difference in spacecraft counts reflects differences in methodology and counting. BryceTech also found that 87% of orbital la unches were conducted by commercial providers and that communications satellites represented 83% of spacecraft launched. The direction is unmistakable: MORE LAUNCHES ↓ MORE SPACECRAFT ↓ MORE ORBITAL INFRASTRUCTURE The space economy is becoming increasingly dependent on the ability to manufacture and deploy large numbers of relatively small spacecraft. BryceTech found that spacecraft below 1,200 kilograms represented 98% of spacecraft launched in 2025. This is a very different industrial model from the era when a single spacecraft could represent a national - scale project. 05 LAUNCH IS BECOMING INFRASTRUCTURE Launch was historically one of the largest barriers to commercial space activity. That barrier has not disappeared, but the economics and cadence of launch have changed. In 2025, commercial launch revenue reached $12.4 billion, a 33% increase over 2024 according to SIA/BryceTech. The FAA's 2026 – 2046 commercial - space forecast describes a sector increasingly driven by private companies and projects continued growth in launch and re - entry activity. The agency identifies reusable launch vehicles, growing demand for commercial satellite services and human - spaceflight activity among the factors affecting future launch activity. It is that launch frequency itself is becoming an economic capability. If launch becomes more frequent, satellite operators can deploy infrastructure faster, replace failed or aging spacecraft more easily, and expand networks without waiting years for a single launch opportunity. Space therefore begins to resemble other infrastructure industries: capacity → deployment → utilization → replacement → expansion 06 THE SATELLITE LAYER Satellites are where space becomes directly useful to the terrestrial economy. Their applications include: • communications • broadband • navigation • Earth observation • weather • scientific measurement • remote sensing • emergency services • timing and positioning • data transmission The commercial satellite sector generated $303 billion in 2025, according to SIA/BryceTech. Within that sector, satellite services generated $105 billion. Satellite broadband was particularly notable: global subscribers increased 62% in 2025 to more than 10 million, while broadband revenue increased by 16%. This illustrates an important characteristic of the new space economy: The customer may never care that the product is “space technology.” They care that they have: • internet access • navigation • communications • imagery • weather information • location data • connectivity Space becomes the underlying infrastructure rather than the product itself. 07 THE DATA ECONOMY ABOVE EARTH One of the most important changes is the growing value of information generated from space. Earth - observation satellites can produce imagery and other measurements used across agriculture, climate monitoring, mapping, infrastructure, defense, disaster response and commercial analysis. The Satellite Industry Association reported that remote - sensing revenue grew 4% in 2025, while the number of remote - sensing satellites in orbit had increased by 47% since 2016. The information produced by a satellite can become a recurring commercial product. 08 THE CAPITAL Commercial infrastructure requires capital. BryceTech's Start - Up Space 2026 report recorded $10.9 billion of investment in space startups during 2025, across 235 deals involving 208 companies. Venture capital represented 79% of total funding. U.S. companies raised approximately $7.3 billion, around two - thirds of the global total. The distribution of capital is also changing. BryceTech reports that larger, more established companies attracted a greater share of funding in 2025, while IPO activity returned with $1.3 billion across four deals. This is important because the space industry has historically had an unusually high capital burden. A software company can potentially scale through servers and code. A space company may need: • factories • launch vehicles • satellites • specialized materials • testing facilities • regulatory approvals • long development cycles The result is an industry where capital allocation is itself a competitive advantage. 09 THE GOVERNMENT IS STILL HERE The rise of private space companies does not mean governments have left the industry. Quite the opposite. Governments remain: • major customers • regulators • funders • infrastructure providers • scientific institutions • national - security actors NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program illustrates the changing relationship. Rather than building every lunar spacecraft internally, NASA contracts commercial providers to deliver scientific and technological payloads to the Moon. As of 2026, NASA lists 17 planned commercial lunar deliveries through 2028, involving more than 60 NASA instruments. The CLPS contracts have a combined maximum value of $2.6 billion through November 2028. NASA has also increasingly emphasized partnerships with commercial companies in lunar and Mars exploration. In June 2026, NASA announced a partnership with Relativity Space in which NASA provides a science payload while the company supplies the spacecraft, launch vehicle and cruise operations for a Mars mission. Government increasingly acts as customer and market - maker. That creates commercial opportunities while allowing governments to pursue missions without owning every component of the underlying industrial system. 10 THE MOON AS AN ECONOMIC TEST The Moon is becoming a testing ground for commercial services, infrastructure and technology. NASA's CLPS program explicitly aims to help establish a viable commercial lunar landing services sector. Commercial providers can maintain ownership of their landers and sell capacity including mass, power and data transmission to NASA and other customers. INFRASTRUCTURE AS A SERVICE A company builds an asset and c ustomers purchase access to its capabilities. If that model works on the Moon, it could become an important template for future commercial activity beyond Earth orbit. Lunar infrastructure is expensive, technically difficult and dependent on a still - developing customer base. The existence of a market opportunity is therefore not evidence that the market will necessarily become profitable. 11 THE LEGAL FRONTIER The economic expansion of space is happening inside a legal framework originally created during the Cold War. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty establishes fundamental principles including freedom of exploration and use, the prohibition of national appropriation of outer space, and the requirement that space activities be conducted consistently with international law. This becomes increasingly important as commercial actors consider: • lunar resources • orbital infrastructure • satellite constellations • space stations • in - space manufacturing • servicing • debris removal The commercial economy is developing faster than some of the institutions originally designed to govern it. COMMERCIAL INCENTIVE versus INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE The legal environment will therefore become part of the economics of space. 12 THE BOTTLENECKS The new space economy faces several structural constraints. CAPITAL INTENSITY Hardware and launch systems require substantial upfront investment. ORBITAL CONGESTION More satellites mean more objects to track, coordinate and eventually remove. REGULATION Launches, spectrum, remote sensing and other activities operate under national and international rules. DEPENDENCE ON GOVERNMENT Government remains a major customer and source of funding for many space companies. DEMAND Building infrastructure is not the same as proving that enough customers will pay for it. CONCENTRATION The strongest headline numbers can hide weak economics underneath them. 13 THE CONCENTRATION OF POWER The space economy is becoming more commercial, but not a decentralized system In 2025, U.S. companies accounted for approximately 63% of launches, according to SIA/BryceTech, while U.S. companies manufactured 83% of commercially procured satellites launched that year. American companies also wholly or partially operated more than 70 % of the world's satellites at the end of 2025. Capital is similarly concentrated. U.S. companies raised approximately $7.3 billion of the $10.9 billion invested in space startups during 2025. This means the new space economy is commercializing rapidly, but the benefits and capabilities are not distributed evenly. A useful way to think about the industry is therefore not simply: PRIVATE OR GOVERNMENT WHO CONTROLS THE INFRASTRUCTURE? Control over launch, satellites, spectrum, manufacturing, data and capital can translate into influence far beyond the space sector itself. 14 WHAT IS ACTUALLY NEW? The phrase “New Space” is often used to describe the rise of private space companies. But private companies have existed in the space industry for decades. The more meaningful change is the combination of several trends: 01 LOWER - COST ACCESS Reusable launch systems and higher launch cadence are increasing the amount of hardware that can be deployed. 02 SMALLER SPACECRAFT Small satellites have become a dominant part of deployment activity. 03 CONSTELLATIONS Instead of relying on one satellite, companies can operate networks of many spacecraft. 04 RECURRING SERVICES Connectivity, navigation and Earth - observation data create ongoing revenue rather than one - time hardware sales. 05 PRIVATE CAPITAL Investment is increasingly financing companies whose business models depend on commercial space infrastructure. 06 GOVERNMENT AS CUSTOMER Public agencies increasingly use commercial providers instead of building every capability themselves. Together, these changes make space look less like a collection of isolated missions and more like an emerging infrastructure economy. 15 WHAT THE NUMBERS DON'T TELL US Large numbers can create the impression that the space economy is already mature. A $429 billion economy does not mean $429 billion of equally profitable businesses. A record number of launches does not mean every launch provider is economically successful. Thousands of satellites do not automatically create thousands of successful businesses. And billions of dollars of investment do not guarantee commercial demand. The most important unanswered question is therefore: Which parts of the new space economy can generate durable economic value without depending indefinitely on external capital or government demand? The next industry stage will decide this