Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited | Equity Research 21 April 2022 Canadian Overseas GICS Sector Energy Petroleum Limited Ticker LSE:COPL CSE: XOP Market cap 20-Apr-22 (US$mm) 65 Increasing our Risked NAV by 10% Following Cuda Acquisition Share price 20-Apr-22 (GBP p) 20 NAV summary (GBP p/sh) Acquisition of Cuda increases our risked NAV and adds unhedged FCF Asset Unrisked Risked COPL has signed an agreement to aquire the assets of private US company Cuda Energy LLC, which is currently in receivership. Cuda’s sole assets are in the Core NAV 32 28 Barron Flats Shannon Unit (27% W.I.) and the Barron Flats Federal (Deep) Development 36 21 Unit, Cole Creek Unit and non-unitised lands (27.5%-33.333% WI): COPL is the Exploration NAV summary (p/sh) 87 11 operator of all of these assets. The acquisition is expected to close by mid-June but is effective 1st March 2022. The acquisition is being financed solely with the Asset Unrisked Risked proceeds from COPL’s US$20mm bridge loan and the settlement of Cuda’s Total NAV 155 60 Core NAV 42H&P estimates Source: 36 arrears: at YE’21 Cuda owed COPL US$3.2mm, which implies a price of ~US$23mm. Cuda’s interests are unhedged, giving full exposure to current oil Development 17 5 prices but despite this COPL is acquiring the assets at a discount to what it paid Exploration 114 1 for Atomic Oil and Gas on a working interest adjusted basis. The terms of the 140 50,000 Atomic acquisition were negotiated at US$39/bbl WTI, when Atomic was 45,000 120 NAV Total 173 42 suffering under a challenging Covid-19 environment and the impact of the 2020 40,000 crash in oil prices. The deal is expected to add ~750bbl/d to 2022 production, 100 H&P estimates Source: 35,000 double COPL’s 2022 cash flow and adds 12.4mmbbl of 2P reserves (paying 80 30,000 om <US$2/bbl) for reserves valued by the Company at a pre-tax NPV10 of 25,000 60 20,000 US$122mm (~US$10/bbl) on the YE’21 price deck, which assumes <US$70/bbl il.c WTI up until 2030. Our post-tax NPV12 of its 2P reserves is 75p/sh unrisked. 40 15,000 a 20 10,000 5,000 gm US$20mm bridge loan and US$13mm equity raise; RBL being negotiated 0 0 To finance the acquisition, COPL signed a US$20mm bridge loan and raised an Jun-21 Apr-21 Aug-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Oct-21 1 @ oversubscribed US$13mm (upsized from US$10mm) in equity at 20p/sh plus half a warrant at 24p/sh valid for 6 months, issuing 49.9mm new shares, s n representing 20% of the enlarged share capital. The key terms of the loan are a Volume ('000s RHS) i d 12 month maturity with a 12.5% interest rate and a 7% implementation fee; a e convert at a 25% premium to the placing price of 20p/sh and 2 year warrants Canadian Overseas Petroleum l ar - LSE (Rebased) representing 50% of the Loan Drawdown. The convertible nature of the bridge FTSE Oil & Gas Index ch loan allows COPL to refinance its current credit facility and thus reduce its cost (Rebased) of capital. Over the coming months COPL’s plans to take out Reserve Based Lending ('RBL') debt with which to refinance existing debt. The aim is to reduce its cost of capital and provide enhanced operating flexibility. H&P Advisory Ltd is a Retained Advisor to Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited. Acquisition of Cuda also allows COPL to address production constraints The cost of producing this material has been covered by Canadian Overseas The Barron Flats Shannon Unit is producing at ~1,900bbl/d, as growth is Petroleum as part of a contractual constrained by higher surface pressures than expected, which is being caused by engagement with H&P; this report should the better than expected performance of the miscible flood. COPL was restricted therefore be considered an “acceptable minor non-monetary benefit” under the on investment into the acreage given that Cuda was bankcrupt and this MiFID II Directive. acquisiton now also gives COPL more freedom to invest in the assets. 0.5- 0.8kbbl/d of production is currently restricted due to surface facility working pressure constraints. The solution of laying a dedicated 2-mile gas pipeline to the plant was not possible as Cuda is in receivership. COPL plans to drill and tie- in 9 additional wells in 2022, which will allow production to grow to >4kbbl/d Anish Kapadia from 1.9kbbl/d currently. The remaining 15% working interest holder of the Research Analyst BFSU is CNOOC, which is looking to sell its international assets. T +44 (0) 207 907 8500 E anish@hannam.partners Valuation: 190% upside to our increased risked NAV of 60p/sh We have increased our risked NAV by 10% from 54p/sh on the incorporation of Jay Ashfield the Cuda interests into our NAV and updating for the YE’21 reserves valuations Sales and using a higher 2022 average WTI price of US$100/bbl. This more than T +44 (0) 207 907 2022 offsets the dilution from the share issuance and potential warrants. We continue E ja@hannam.partners to use US$70/bbl WTI flat from 2023 and a 12% discount rate from 1/1/2022. We see COPL trading at a 40% discount to our core NAV, which only includes Andy Crispin the risked value of the proved reserves. COPL trades on US$2/boe of 2P Sales reserves; US$38k per boe/d of 2022E production and 2.1x 2022E EBITDA. We T +44 (0) 207 907 2022 have risked the 2P reserves heavily and as COPL demonstrates production E andy.crispin@hannam.partners growth over the next six months it would allow us to derisk ~20p/sh in value. Furthermore, there is significant upside from the delineation of the Barron Flats H&P Advisory Ltd Federal (Deep) Unit discovery. 3rd Floor, 7-10 Chandos Street, London, W1G 9DQ Prepared solely for Charlie Davies. Not to be distributed anywhere. Strictly for personal use. Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited | Equity Research 21 April 2022 BFU and Cole Creek Economics Production profile (bbl/d) Revenues pre-royalty (US$mm) 10,000 250 8,000 200 6,000 150 4,000 100 2,000 50 - - BFU 1P BFU 2P CC 1P CC 2P BFU CC Source: H&P estimates The production profile above is our base case production using the 2P reserves for the Barron Flats Shannon Unit and Cole Creek. It does not include any production from the Barron Flats Federal (Deep) Unit discovery. In this scenario production builds up to ~4kbbl/d by 2023 and grows further from Cole Creek from mid- decade. At this level of production COPL will generate around US$100mm in revenue at US$70/bbl WTI in 2023. This is pre-royalties, ad valorem tax and o m severance taxes (close to 35% of revenue), which will take revenues down to ali .c around US$70mm per annum. gm 2P EBITDA profile (C$mm) 1 @ Post tax cash flow from ops profile (C$mm) s n 140 d 120 120 100 r lie 100 80 a ch 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 - - BFU CC BFU CC Source: H&P estimates We expect asset level EBITDA to grow to around US$50mm in 2023 after opex of around US$10mm over the next few years. We estimate that cash tax is payable from 2023 given there were no tax losses acquired with Atomic although this has a minor impact in the early years given a low tax rate and the ability to fully depreciate capex. 2 Prepared solely for Charlie Davies. Not to be distributed anywhere. Strictly for personal use. Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited | Equity Research 21 April 2022 Capex profiles (C$mm) Post-tax free cash flow profile (C$mm) 70 80 60 60 50 40 40 30 20 20 10 - - (20) (40) BFU CC BFU CC Source: H&P estimates In the 2P capex profile both the purchased liquids and dry gas requirements are treated as capex in the initial stages of a miscible flood project. FCF is flat in 2023 despite higher production as we assume oil prices moderate to US$70/bbl WTI from US$100/bbl. At the asset level COPL should generate around US$35mm per annum over the next few years. To put this in context this is around 50% of its current market cap. To end 2030 we estimate aggregate asset level FCF of ~US$300mm. o m ali .c gm 1 @ s n d r lie a ch 3 Prepared solely for Charlie Davies. Not to be distributed anywhere. Strictly for personal use. Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited | Equity Research 21 April 2022 Valuation NAV Asset G ro s s Ne t NP V Un ris k e d Un ris k e d G e o lo g ic a l C o m m e rc ia l R is k e d R is k e d m m bo e In t e re s t m m bo e US $ / b o e US $ m £/s h Co S Co S US $ m £/s h Net debt (end '2 1 ) -$2 9 -0.09 -$2 8.5 -0.09 Cuda acquisition -$2 3 -0.07 -$2 3 .0 -0.07 Equity raise (April '2 2 ) $1 2 0.04 $1 2 .4 0.04 Butane hedges $1 6 0.05 $1 6.3 0.05 WTI hedges -$2 4 -0.07 -$2 3 .8 -0.07 Warrants and options proceeds $2 6 0.08 $2 6.2 0.08 Capitalised G&A @ 2x -$6 -0.02 -$6.0 -0.02 Asset Retirem ent Obligation -$8.2 -0.02 -$8.2 -0.02 Cole Creek prov ed 6.9 1 00.0% 6.9 4.8 $3 4 0.1 0 1 00% 90% $3 0.2 0.09 BFU gas prov ed 1 8.1 85.0% 1 5.4 7 .0 $1 08 0.3 3 1 00% 90% $97 .6 0.2 9 Core NAV 25.1 89% 22.3 4.8 $ 107 0.32 $ 93.2 0.28 Cole Creek probable 1 3 .3 1 00.0% 1 3 .3 3 .8 $50 0.1 5 90% 50% $2 2 .6 0.07 BFU gas probable 9.2 85.0% 7 .8 8.9 $69 0.2 1 90% 7 5% $46.7 0.1 4 Development upside 22.5 94% 21.1 5.7 $ 119 0.36 $ 69.3 0.21 Deep well potential 7 2 .6 80.0% 58.1 5.0 $2 90 0.87 2 5% 50% $3 6.3 0.1 1 Explorat ion upside 7 2.6 80% 58.1 5.0 $ 290 0.87 0.25 0.5 $ 36.3 0.11 Tot al NAV 120.2 101.5 $ 517 o m 1.55 $ 198.8 0.60 Source: H&P estimates il . c a We have increased our NAV on the incorporation of the Cuda interests NAV, updating for the YE’21 reserves valuations and using a higher mintoaverage g2022 our WTI price of US$100/bbl. This more than offsets the dilution 1 @from the share s n issuance and potential warrants as our NAV is on a fully diluted basis for the i d at a 40% discount to our warrants and options. We continue to use US$70/bbl WTI flat from 2023 and a etrading 12% discount rate from 1/1/2022. We see COPL core NAV, which only includes the riskeda l r of the proved reserves. value c h COPL risked NAV build up (p/sh) Source: H&P estimates 4 Prepared solely for Charlie Davies. Not to be distributed anywhere. Strictly for personal use. Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited | Equity Research 21 April 2022 NAV sensitivities We look at the risked NAV for COPL at various oil prices from 2023+ and discount rates relative to our base case. Risked NAV (p/sh) at different oil prices and discount rates Discount rate 0.4 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% WTI oil price $50.0 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.24 0.22 ($/bbl) $60.0 0.55 0.49 0.44 0.39 0.35 $70.0 0.76 0.67 0.60 0.53 0.48 $80.0 0.97 0.86 0.76 0.68 0.61 $90.0 1.18 1.04 0.92 0.82 0.73 Source: H&P estimates Valuation metrics and multiples The table below shows the key financial ratio and operational metrics for COPL. Financial ratios and multiples (U$'000) 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Market capitalisation 64,828 64,828 64,828 64,828 o m Net debt EV 43,519 93,359 25,267 93,359 3,415 93,359 li .c -17,482 a 93,359 Equity 65,263 82,797 g m 102,566 124,459 Capital employed EV/2P 2020 reserves ($/boe) 108,783 2.1 108,064 1 2.1 @105,981 2.1 106,977 2.1 EV per boe per day ($ per boe/d) 38 n s 31.3 29.922 24 20 39.5 d lie 32.8 33.1 Cashflow per barrel ($/boe) 27.5 EBITDA per barrel ($/boe) r 49.0 33.2 Net income per barrel ($/boe) P/E cha 19.8 3.6x 12.5 3.7x 12.6 3.3x 13.0 3.0x P/CFPS 1.8x 1.5x 1.4x 1.4x EV/EBITDA 2.1x 2.0x 1.8x 1.7x ROAE 27% 21% 19% 18% ROACE 16% 16% 19% 20% FCF yield 0% 41% 46% 45% Net debt/EBITDA 1.0x 0.5x 0.1x -0.3x Net debt/equity 67% 31% 3% -14% Net debt/capital employed 40% 23% 3% -16% Source: H&P estimates 5 Prepared solely for Charlie Davies. Not to be distributed anywhere. Strictly for personal use. Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited | Equity Research 21 April 2022 Financial Summary Assumptions 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Exchange rate (C$/US$) $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 Exchange rate (US$/GBP) $1.30 $1.30 $1.30 $1.30 $1.30 WTI price (US$/bbl) $67.86 $100.00 $70.00 $70.00 $70.00 Realised oil price (US$/bbl) $65.68 $96.50 $66.50 $66.50 $66.50 HH gas price (US$/mcf) Operational data 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E BFU oil production, net (bbl/d) 927 2,185 3,655 4,167 4,130 CC oil production, net (bbl/d) 56 149 190 144 502 Total oil production, net (bbl/d) 772 2,475 3,845 4,311 4,632 Natural gas purchased, net (mcf/d) 2,916 3,600 5,963 5,623 5,218 Butane/propane purchased, net (bbl/d) 1,580 2,135 1,753 1,861 1,556 Total gas/LPG purchased (boe/d) 2,066 2,735 2,747 2,798 2,426 Income statement (US$'000) 2021E o 2022E m 2023E 2024E 2025E Petroleum sales a 15,003 li .c 63,767 72,145 80,885 86,901 Realised loss on derivatives – crude Unrealised loss on derivatives – crude gm -16,6810 -2,274 -10,331 -7,139 0 0 0 0 0 Revenue 1 @2,398 47,086 65,006 80,885 86,901 Production taxes d sn -1,900 -7,971 -9,018 -10,111 -10,863 Operating expenses lie -4,279 -8,549 -14,035 -15,735 -16,905 General and administrative ar -8,302 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 ch Realised gain on derivatives – butane 2,816 8,103 8,217 0 0 Unrealised gain on derivatives - butane 7,355 0 0 0 0 EBITDA -1,912 35,669 47,170 52,039 56,133 EBITDA (pre-hedges) 522 44,248 46,092 52,039 56,133 Depletion, depreciation and amortisation -3,682 -10,258 -16,842 -18,882 -20,286 Other expenses -2,460 0 0 0 0 EBIT -5,620 33,990 29,251 33,157 35,847 Finance costs, net -6,898 -7,509 -8,134 -8,134 -8,134 (Loss)/Gain on derivative liabilities 1,091 0 0 0 0 Gain on extinguishment of loan 332 0 0 0 0 Foreign exchange gain / (loss), net -6 0 0 0 0 Loss on investment in joint venture -1 0 0 0 0 EBT -13,536 17,902 22,195 25,024 27,713 Income tax expense 0 0 -4,661 -5,255 -5,820 Net income -13,536 17,902 17,534 19,769 21,893 Source: H&P estimates 6 Prepared solely for Charlie Davies. Not to be distributed anywhere. Strictly for personal use. Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited | Equity Research 21 April 2022 Cashflow (US$'000) 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Net income -13,536 17,902 17,534 19,769 21,893 Deferred tax 0 0 1,455 277 -3,827 Gain on waived 2019 directors’ fees 0 0 0 0 0 Depletion, depreciation and amortization 3,682 10,258 16,842 18,882 20,286 Unrealised loss on derivatives – crude 10,331 0 0 0 0 Unrealised gain on derivatives – butane -7,355 0 0 0 0 Finance costs, net 6,898 7,509 8,134 8,134 8,134 Gains on loans / lease relief -332 0 0 0 0 Loss/(Gain) on derivative liabilities -1,091 0 0 0 0 Stock based compensation 0 0 0 0 0 Unrealized foreign exchange (gain) / loss -50 0 0 0 0 Loss on investment in joint venture 1 0 0 0 0 Cash flow from operations pre w/c -1,452 35,669 43,964 47,062 46,486 Net change in non-cash working capital -6,306 0 0 0 0 Cash flow from operations post w/c -7,758 35,669 43,964 47,062 46,486 Capex -19,003 -35,499 -17,578 -17,076 -17,455 Free cash flow -26,761 170 26,386 29,986 29,031 Acquisition cash consideration paid -45,079 -20,000 o m 0 0 0 Acquisition cash acquired Additions to exploration & evaluation assets 9,160 -3,285 a li .0c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Additions to investment in joint venture -1 g m 0 0 0 0 1@ Interest income 10 0 0 0 0 Net change in non-cash working capital s n -548 0 0 0 0 Cash Used in Investing Activities e d -58,746 -55,499 -17,578 -17,076 -17,455 Share and warrant issuance net proceeds li r 37,095 12,350 0 0 0 c ha Net proceeds from senior credit facility 41,456 20,000 0 0 0 Interest paid on credit facility -4,643 -7,509 -8,134 -8,134 -8,134 Other -792 0 0 0 0 Net change in non-cash working capital -149 0 0 0 0 Cash Provided by Financing Activities 72,967 24,841 -8,134 -8,134 -8,134 Increase /(decrease) in cash and equivalents 6,463 5,012 18,252 21,852 20,898 FX impacts -23 0 0 0 0 Cash and cash equivalents, beginning 1,401 7,841 12,853 31,105 52,957 Cash and cash equivalents, end of period 7,841 12,853 31,105 52,957 73,854 Source: H&P estimate 7 Prepared solely for Charlie Davies. Not to be distributed anywhere. Strictly for personal use. Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited | Equity Research 21 April 2022 Balance Sheet (US$'000) 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Cash and cash equivalents 7,841 12,853 31,105 52,957 73,854 Accounts receivable 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 Deferred share issue costs 0 0 0 0 0 Commodity derivative net assets 0 0 0 0 0 Prepaid expenses 674 674 674 674 674 Deposits 0 0 0 0 0 Current Assets 15,390 20,402 38,654 60,506 81,403 Prepaid purchase price 0 0 0 0 0 Exploration and evaluation assets 5,172 5,172 5,172 5,172 5,172 Property, plant and equipment, net 78,006 123,247 123,983 122,177 119,346 Right-of-use assets 166 166 166 166 166 Long-term deposits 44 44 44 44 44 Long-term receivable 0 0 0 0 0 Non-current Assets 83,388 128,629 129,365 127,559 124,728 TOTAL ASSETS 98,778 149,030 168,019 188,065 206,131 Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 12,438 12,438 12,438 12,438 12,438 Subscription receipts liability 0 0 0 0 0 Short-term loans 0 0 .c om 0 0 0 Derivative liabilities 3,573 i 3,573 a l 3,573 3,573 3,573 Current portion of lease liabilities 74 m g75,433 74 74 74 74 Current Liabilities 55,433 75,433 75,433 75,433 Deferred tax 1@ 0 0 1,455 1,732 -2,095 Senior credit facility sn 0 0 0 0 0 Derivative liabilities lied 0 0 0 0 0 Commodity derivative net liability ar 0 0 0 0 0 Lease liabilities Asset retirement obligations ch 143 8,191 143 8,191 143 8,191 143 8,191 143 8,191 Non-current liabilities 8,334 8,334 9,789 10,066 6,239 Current + Non Current liabilities 63,767 83,767 85,222 85,499 81,672 Share capital 190,705 220,957 238,491 258,260 280,153 Warrants 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 Contributed capital reserve 51,260 51,260 51,260 51,260 51,260 Deficit -205,927 -205,927 -205,927 -205,927 -205,927 Accumulated other comprehensive loss -2,200 -2,200 -2,200 -2,200 -2,200 Shareholders' Deficit 35,011 65,263 82,797 102,566 124,459 TOTAL LIABILITIES 98,778 149,030 168,019 188,065 206,131 Source: H&P estimates 8 Prepared solely for Charlie Davies. Not to be distributed anywhere. Strictly for personal use. Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited | Equity Research 21 April 2022 Disclaimer This Document has been prepared by H&P Advisory Limited (“H&P”). It is protected by international intellectual property laws and is for the recipient’s use in connection with considering a potential business relationship with H&P only. This Document and any related materials are confidential and may not be distributed or reproduced (in whole or in part) in any form without H&P’s prior written permission. By accepting or accessing this Document or any related materials you agree to be bound by the limitations and conditions set out herein and, in particular, will be taken to have represented, warranted and undertaken that you have read and agree to comply with the contents of this disclaimer including, without limitation, the obligation to keep information contained in this Document and any related materials confidential. 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