BREXIT AND BEYOND Rethinking the Futures of Europe Edited by Benjamin Martill Uta Staiger Brexit and Beyond Brexit and Beyond Rethinking the Futures of Europe Edited by Benjamin Martill and Uta Staiger First published in 2018 by UCL Press University College London Gower Street London WC1E 6BT Available to download free: www.ucl.ac.uk/ucl- press Text © Contributors, 2018 Images © Contributors and copyright holders named in the captions, 2018 The authors have asserted their rights under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 to be identified as the authors of this work. A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from The British Library. This book is published under a Creative Commons 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0). This license allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work; to adapt the work and to make commercial use of the work providing attribution is made to the authors (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). Attribution should include the following information: Martill, B. and Staiger, U. (eds). 2018. Brexit and Beyond: Rethinking the Futures of Europe . London: UCL Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14324/111.9781787352759 Further details about Creative Commons licenses are available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ ISBN: 978–1–78735–277–3 (Hbk) ISBN: 978–1–78735–276–6 (Pbk) ISBN: 978–1–78735–275–9 (PDF) ISBN: 978–1–78735–278–0 (epub) ISBN: 978–1–78735–279–7 (mobi) ISBN: 978–1–78735–280–3 (html) DOI: https://doi.org/10.14324/111.9781787352759 For our families – British and European alike vii Acknowledgements This book would never have seen the light of day without the assistance, support and advice offered to us by our colleagues and friends at UCL and UCL Press. Our colleagues at the UCL European Institute offered help and advice from the moment we started working on the project. In particular we would like to thank Claudia Sternberg, Christine Reh, Piet Eeckhout and Richard Bellamy, who were instrumental in drumming up support for the project within the European Studies community, and whose efforts ensured the final product would be comprehensive in its cover- age of the discipline. We are also much indebted to Oliver Patel for his tireless administrative and intellectual support, both on the book itself and on the various other projects the writing of the volume foisted upon him. We would also like to thank the members of the European Institute’s Advisory Board, who followed the book’s progress with much interest and encouraged us that there was substantial demand for such a volume in the policy world. The Chair of the Board, Sir John Birch, is particularly deserving of our gratitude for his longstanding commitment to the work of the European Institute, his keen interest in the volume and his helpful insights on its content and audience. The book has benefited immensely from the helpful staff at UCL Press. We are grateful in particular to Tim Mathews, who first floated the idea of a book on Brexit, and to our editor, Chris Penfold, who has advised on and overseen the process from start to finish. We would also like to thank the two anonymous referees appointed by UCL Press, whose constructive and detailed comments helped us to structure the volume and finesse the arguments therein. Above all, however, we are grateful to all of our contributing authors, who have lent their expertise and their intellect to this project and whose timely and insightful contributions are the very essence of this book. Finally, AcknowlEdgEMEntS viii we would like to thank our families – to whom we have dedicated this book – for their support and patience over the many months whilst we brought the project together. Benjamin Martill and Uta Staiger London November 2017 ix Contents Figures and table xii Abbreviations xiii Contributors xv Introduction: Brexit and beyond 1 Benjamin Martill and Uta Staiger Part One Actors and institutions I: Brexit and the UK 1. Cameron’s European legacy: How Brexit demonstrates the flawed politics of simple solutions 22 Andrew Glencross 2. Brexit and the improvised constitution 28 Albert Weale 3. Is the EU ‘a crap 1950s idea’?: Dominic Cummings, branching histories and the case for Leave 37 Glyn Morgan 4. How British was the Brexit vote? 46 Gráinne de Búrca II: Europe’s institutional order 5. Brexit: Yet another crisis for the EU 54 Neill Nugent 6. The implications of Brexit for the future of Europe 63 Michelle Cini and Amy Verdun 7. Decentralised federalism: A new model for the EU 72 Simon Hix 8. Seven Brexit propositions: Towards a Union that protects 81 Luuk van Middelaar contEntS x III: The Member States 9. Britain’s singular other: Germany and the Brexit crisis 88 William E. Paterson 10. France, Britain and Brexit 97 Helen Drake 11. Brexit and Ireland: Collateral damage? 105 Nicholas Wright 12. Something new under the sun?: The lessons of Algeria and Greenland 114 Kiran Klaus Patel Part Two Issues and policies IV: The political economy of Europe 13. What impact will Brexit have on the euro area? 124 Waltraud Schelkle 14. The Brexit iceberg 132 Chris Bickerton 15. The new crisis of ungovernability 138 Abby Innes V: Law and justice 16. The ties that bind: Securing information-sharing after Brexit 148 Deirdre Curtin 17. Citizenship and free movement in a changing EU: Navigating an archipelago of contradictions 156 Jo Shaw 18. The Emperor has no clothes: Brexit and the UK constitution 165 Piet Eeckhout VI: Europe in the world 19. Britain against the world?: Foreign and security policy in the ‘age of Brexit’ 174 Amelia Hadfield contEntS xi 20. Turning back the clock: The illusion of a global political role for Britain 183 Christopher Hill 21. A speculation on the future of Europe 193 John R. Gillingham VII: Democracy and legitimacy 22. Whither the 27? 204 Michael Shackleton 23. Sustainable integration in a demoicratic polity: A new (or not so new) ambition for the EU after Brexit 212 Kalypso Nicolaïdis 24. Losing control: Brexit and the demoi-cratic disconnect 222 Richard Bellamy VIII: The idea of Europe 25. The heart of the matter: Emotional politics in the new Europe 230 Uta Staiger 26. Square peg, round hole: Why the EU can’t fix identity politics 239 Turkuler Isiksel 27. Fair Brexit for a just Europe 251 Philippe Van Parijs Conclusion 28. Rethinking the futures of Europe 260 Uta Staiger and Benjamin Martill Notes 266 Bibliography 273 Index 291 xii Figures and table Figure 7.1 Support for populist parties in national elections in EU Member States (Hix & Benedetto 2017) 75 Table 7.1 Institutional design options for the EU 76 Figure 13.1 UK exports, imports and trade balance to EU and non- EU countries 130 xiii Abbreviations AFSJ Area of Freedom, Security and Justice CAP Common Agricultural Policy CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy CJEU Court of Justice of the European Union CSDP Common Security and Defence Policy CTA Common Travel Area DExEU Department for Exiting the European Union DUP Democratic Unionist Party EAW European Arrest Warrant ECA European Communities Act ECB European Central Bank ECHR European Convention on Human Rights ECRIS European Criminal Records Information System ECSC European Coal and Steel Community EDA European Defence Agency EDC European Defence Community EDPS European Data Protection Supervisor EEAS European External Action Service EEC European Economic Community EFTA European Free Trade Association EMU Economic and Monetary Union EP European Parliament EPC European Political Cooperation EU European Union EU27 The 27 Member States of the European Union FAC Foreign Affairs Council FCO Foreign and Commonwealth Office FLN Front de Libération Nationale HRA Human Rights Act LREM La République en Marche M5S Five Star Movement ABBrEviAtionS xiv NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NCA National Crime Agency NHS National Health Service OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PNR Passenger Name Record PSC Political and Security Committee QMV Qualified majority voting SDG Sustainable development goal SIS II Schengen Information System TFEU Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union TTIP Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership UK United Kingdom UKREP UK Permanent Representation to the EU UN United Nations UNGA United Nations General Assembly UNSC United Nations Security Council US United States USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WTO World Trade Organization xv Contributors Richard Bellamy is Professor of Political Science in the UCL School of Public Policy and Director of the Max Weber Programme at the European University Institute in Florence. Chris Bickerton is a Reader in Modern European Politics at Cambridge University, and a Fellow of Queens’ College, Cambridge. Gráinne de Búrca is the Florence Ellinwood Allen Professor of Law and Faculty Director at the Hauser Global Law School, and Director of the Jean Monnet Center for International and Regional Economic Law and Justice, at New York University. Michelle Cini is Professor of European Politics and Head of the School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies at the University of Bristol. Deirdre Curtin is Professor of EU Law at the European University Institute in Florence. Helen Drake is Professor of French and European Studies and Director of the Academy of Diplomacy and International Governance, Loughborough University London. Piet Eeckhout is Professor of EU Law, Dean of the Faculty of Laws, and Academic Director of the European Institute, at UCL. John R. Gillingham is a University of Missouri Board of Curators Professor of History. Andrew Glencross is Senior Lecturer in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Aston University. Amelia Hadfield is Professor of European and International Relations, and Director of the Jean Monnet Centre for European Studies (CEFEUS), at Canterbury Christ Church University (UK). contriBUtor S xvi Christopher Hill is the Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor of International Relations at SAIS Europe, and Professor Emeritus of International Relations, University of Cambridge. Simon Hix is the Harold Laski Professor of Political Science at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Abby Innes is Assistant Professor in the Political Economy of Central and Eastern Europe at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Turkuler Isiksel is the James P. Shenton Assistant Professor of the Core Curriculum in the Department of Political Science at Columbia University. Benjamin Martill is Dahrendorf Fellow in Europe after Brexit at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Luuk van Middelaar is a former advisor to European Council President Herman Van Rompuy. He holds the chair ‘Foundations and Practice of the European Union and its institutions’ at the Europa Instituut of Leiden University. Glyn Morgan is Associate Professor of Political Science at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University. Kalypso Nicolaïdis is Professor of International Relations, and Director of the Centre for International Studies, at the University of Oxford. Neill Nugent is Emeritus Professor of Politics at Manchester Metropolitan University. Kiran Klaus Patel is Professor of European and Global History at Maastricht University. William E. Paterson is Honorary Professor of German and European Politics at Aston University. Waltraud Schelkle is Associate Professor of Political Economy at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Michael Shackleton is Special Professor in European Institutions at Maastricht University. Jo Shaw is a Professor in the School of Law at the University of Edinburgh where she holds the Salvesen Chair of European Institutions. Uta Staiger is Executive Director of the European Institute and Pro-Vice Provost (Europe), UCL. contriBUtorS xvii Philippe Van Parijs is Professor in the Faculty of Economic, Social and Political Science of the University of Louvain and a Visiting Professor and Senior Research Fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford. Amy Verdun is Professor of Political Science and Director of the Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence at the University of Victoria. Albert Weale is Emeritus Professor of Political Theory and Public Policy in the School of Public Policy, UCL. Nicholas Wright is a Teaching Fellow in EU Politics in the School of Public Policy, UCL. newgenprepdf 1 Introduction Brexit and beyond Benjamin Martill and Uta Staiger On 23 June 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) went to the polls to decide whether Britain should remain in, or leave, the European Union (EU). The success of the ‘leave’ vote, by a 51.89 per cent majority, stunned not only the British public but also the major political parties, the polling organi- sations, and the media, not to mention most political scientists. It also flabbergasted their continental counterparts. Despite the multiple crises in which the Union finds itself embroiled, neither publics nor authori- ties had fully comprehended the probability of ‘Brexit’. Unprecedented in nature, the vote shook whatever remained of the once preponderant telos of European integration – encapsulated in the symbolic, if legally vacu- ous, Treaty commitment to ‘ever closer’ union’ – to the core. 1 The process of Britain withdrawing from the EU, with which it has been deeply intertwined over the past four decades, will occasion a significant impact on virtually all aspects of the country’s political, juridical and economic life. From immigration policy to agriculture sub- sidies, criminal justice measures to environmental standards, financial services regulations to nuclear power technology, university student fees to employment laws and aviation, Brexit requires rethinking and re- legislating a vast number of policy areas. It also promises to keep authori- ties (and other stakeholders) busier than ever until withdrawal day, and most likely beyond. Negotiating the terms of Brexit, along with new trade deals previously covered by EU agreements, requires immense capac- ity and will stretch the civil service to its limits. In addition, amending, repealing or improving existing EU legislation, once transposed into UK law via the Withdrawal Bill (formerly the ‘Great Repeal Bill’), is ‘one of the largest legislative projects ever undertaken in the UK’ (Simson Caird 2017, 5). 2 Expect the Courts, too, to continue to arbitrate on questions of executive competences, and for the devolution settlement to be thorny and contested.