i i ALL POWER TO THE MASSES! Reconsidering Economic and Social Progress in China During the Maoist Era (1949 - 78) Ivan Salazar Prologue by Armando Content General recommendations Part 1: China Before 1949 1 1.1 One hundred years of national humiliation 1 1.2 The economy from the Qing Dynasty to the Kuomintang Government 4 1.2.1 Development of industry under the mantle of imperialism 4 1.2.2 The use of technologies for development 13 1.2.3 The growth of the agricultural sector 16 1.2.4 Economic legacy of China' s Republican era 18 1.3 Social status and standard of living 23 1.3.1 China, land of famine 23 1.3.2 Literacy 25 1.3.3 Urban a reas: health, hygiene and water supply 26 1.3.4 Rural China 32 1.3.4.1 Public health in communist territories 44 Part 2: China During the Maoist Period 48 2.1 China on the brink of collapse 48 2.2 Economic readjustment, gradualism and the first five - year plan (1949 - 57 ) 51 2.2.1 Foreign trade and economic embargo 56 2.2.2 Early start of industrial development 63 2.2.3 Agricultural economy, the cornerstone of industrialization 71 2.2.3.1 Land reform 71 2.2.3.2 The three transitional phases 75 2.2.3.3 Fast or slow transition? A review of agricultural production 80 2.3 The Great Leap Forward (1958 - 62 ) 85 2.3.1 Industrial and agricultural development 86 2.3.2 Performance of the Great Leap Forward 99 2.4 The Great Chinese Famine (1958 - 61 ) 102 2.4.1 Excessive death toll: did tens of millions of people really die? 103 2.4.1.1 Problems with the 1982 Retrospective Fertility/Fecundity Survey : criticism of Coale, Peng, Ashton et al, Banister et al. 109 2.4.1.2 Actual excess deaths during the Great Chinese Famine 112 2.4.1.3 Critique of the figures of Dikotter, Yang Jisheng and Cao Shuji 123 2.4.2 Mao's culpability: Was Mao the main culprit of the famine? 131 2.4.2.1 Lushan Conference 137 2.4.2.2 Radicalism or "communist wind" and Mao' s political inaction 141 2.4.2.3 Culpability of other persons 146 2.4.3 Planned economy and collective farming: Causes of grain reduction ? 152 2.4.3.1 Planned economy 152 2.4.3.2 Collective farming 156 2.4.4 Other causal factors: plausible explanations for the famine? 160 2.4.4.1 Soup kitchens 161 2.4.4.2 Lack of government response? 165 2.4.4.3 Massive grain procurement 175 2.4.5 Climatic changes: did climate play a key role in the reduction of grain production or not ? 178 2.4.5.1 Anecdotal records 178 2.4.5.2 Statistical data 182 2.4.6 Sparrows? 195 2.4.7 Data problems and probable falsification 196 2.4.8 Was the Great Leap Forward really a failure? 205 2.4.9 Conclusion 209 2.5 Crisis Re covery 210 2.5.1 Restructuring and recovery 210 2.5.2 Trusts 216 2.6 Rural industrialization: commune industries, brigades and the Third Front. 2.6.1 The Third Front: the homeland under threat 225 2.6.1.1 Railroad construction 2.6.1.2 Was the Third Front a waste of resources? The economic legacy of the Third Front 249 2.6.2 Rural industries in counties, communes and brigades 279 2.6.3 Performance of rural industrialization 294 2.6.4 Inefficiency and productivity 300 2.7 Foreign trade 316 2.8 Science for the Masses: Science and Technology in Maoist China 319 2.8.1 Persecution during the Cultural Revolution 335 2.8.2 Mass Science 343 2.8.3 Aerospace and milit ary industry development 350 2.8.4 Protein synthesis and artemisinin 357 2.8.5 Physics 361 2.8.6 Meteorology 362 2.8.7 Seismology 365 2.8.8 Beijing Magazine 373 2.8.9 USSR assistance and computers 375 2.8.10 China, a development model ? 378 2.9 Agricultural Communes: Agricultural Development in Maoist China 382 2.9.1 Learning from Dazhai 384 2.9.2 Hubei' s proposal 387 2.9.2.1 Transfer of agricultural capital to the communes 388 2.9.3 Agricultural mechanization 390 2.9.4 Agricultural modernization 395 2.9.5 Innovation and agricultural technological development under the communes 412 2.9.6 Agricultural productivity 430 2.9.7 The incentive dilemma 440 2.10 Food Security for the Masses: How Maoist China Eliminated Hunger 458 2.10.1 Overcoming malnutrition during the Maoist era 459 2.10.2 Anthropometric data 472 2.10.3 Another anthropometric indicator: Age at menarche 515 2.11 Health for the Masses: How Maoist China was the fastest country to improve people's quality of life 520 2.11.1 Health system during the Maoist era 521 2.12 Education for the Masses: Eliminating illiteracy and inequalities in education 578 2.12.1 "Go up to the mountains and down to the countryside": Re - education campaign (Xiafang). 587 2.13 Emancipation of Women: Mass Attempts to Emancipate Chinese Women 594 2.14 The Environment During the Maoi st Period 609 2.14.1 Forestation 611 2.14.2 Reuse of waste for production in the agricultural and industrial sector 616 2.14.3 Grain - first policy 630 2.14.4 Conclusion 636 Part 3: Decollectivization, poverty, legacy, death and communism 640 3.1 Decollectivization 643 3.1.1 Econometric data 651 3.1.2 Decollectivization from above 657 3.1.3 The other face of decollectivization 661 3.2 Poverty for the Masses: The Paradox of Poverty in Post - Mao China 674 3.3 The Maoist economic legacy 684 3.3.1 Learning - by - doing hypothesis: How the Maoist era aided rural industrialization during the reform era686 3.4 Deaths during the Maoist period: 70 or 60 million deaths? No, one million of innocent deaths 699 3.4.1 Magnitude of the problem 705 3.4.2 Other problems 732 3.4.3 Cultural Revolution 740 3.4.4 Re - adjusting the total deaths during the Maoist era 745 3.4.5 Propaganda as influence 747 3.4.6 Number of deaths by propagandistic governments 3.5 Socialism or Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics ? 764 3.5.1 Socialism in the Communist Party of China 764 3.5.2 Lenin' s Socialism 767 3.5.3 Aufhebung of Capitalism in Marx 770 3.5.3.1 the State 795 3.5.3.2 Emancipation of individuals 812 3.5.4 Development of capitalism in China: 1949 to the present day 853 3.5.5 China today: on the road to socialism? 889 Appendix 1 Brief summary of Sun Jingxiang's demographic analysis 895 List of tables and figures PART 1 Table 1.1: Annual GDPgdpc growth Table 1.2: Growth Rate of Industrial Production in China, 1912 - 49 Table 1.3: Agriculture's share of GDP and employment in poor countries (percentages) Table 1.4: Agricultural, livestock and industrial production before 1949 and in 1949 Table 1.5: Historica lly recorded cases of drought and famine in ancient China Table 1.6: Major health problems in China before 1949 Table 1.7: Major health problems in China before 1949 PART 2 Box 2.1: Statization of the economy Table 2.2: Mobility of labor in the economic st ructure Table 2.3: China's foreign trade 1950 - 1959 (In millions of dollars) Table 2.4: Chinese foreign trade with capitalist countries (Percentage of total) Table 2.5: Chinese foreign trade with allied countries (Percentage of total) Table 2.6: Share in th e value of gross industrial production by sector Table 2.7: Growth of industrial production by commodity, 1949 - 55 Table 2.8: Agricultural Institutions between 1950 - 58 (Teams, cooperatives and communes in thousands (000)) Table 2.9: Agricultural growth in C hina between 1949 - 55 Table 2.10: Collectivization in China, 1955 - 1956 (% of peasant households by members) Table 2.11: Agricultural and Industrial Employment in China between 1952 - 62 Table 2.12: Industry Administration between 1957 - 59 Table 2.13: Regional distribution of pig iron capacity, 1952 - 1960 (in percentage) Table 2.14: Industrial production in different plants Table 2.15: Changes in the structure of sectors of the economy Table 2.16: Rural employment in various sectors of the ec onomy, 1957 - 61 Table 2.17: Estimated actual deaths and estimated deaths that would have occurred in the absence of increased mortality rates during the crisis period, under age 10 and over age 10, by fiscal year: China, fiscal years 1958 - 59 through 1961 - 62 Table 2.18: Grain production in China according to various estimates (in millions of tons) Table 2.19: Age - and sex - specific intercensal survival rates, 1953 - 64, implied mortality levels in the East and growth rates by age group and sex: China, 1953 to 1964 Table 2.20: Mortality rate per 1,000 persons Table 2.21: Mortality rate in Asian and world countries Table 2.22: Unrecorded deaths between 1953 - 58 Table 2.23: Deaths in the absence of famine Table 2.24: Cereal consumption (cereal trade, in kg per capita per year) Table 2.25: Mortality rate and grain holdings per farmer in Sichuan and Gansu Table 2.26: Rural Mortality Rate, 1957 - 63 Table 2.27: Natural disasters in China between 1949 - 64 Table 2.28: Natural disasters in China between 1949 - 63 Table 2.2 7: Natural disasters in China between 1949 - 64 Table 2.28: Natural disasters in China between 1949 - 63 Table 2.29: Comparison of statistical indicators of average drought between 1949 - 58 and 1959 - 61 Table 2.30: Rate of grain loss due to natural disasters bet ween 1950 - 82. Table 2.31: Famine situation between 1959 - 61. Table 2.32: Edema in Dazhu County, 1959 - 62 Table 2.33: China's large and medium - sized industrial enterprises in 1985 classified by year of start - up Table 2.34: Agricultural tax as a percentage of national agricultural production, 1949 - 80 Table 2.35: Growth of industrial production in the TF regions Table 2.36: Years of construction and line lengths of the main TF railroads Table 2.37: Major TF railroads: Number of bridges, number of tunnels and percentage of each line comprising bridges and tunnels Table 2.38: Change in total railroad length and increase in traffic, by province, 1964 to 1980 Table 2.39: Deaths and injuries among Railway Corps personnel during the construction of the T F railroad lines Table 2.40: Growth of industrial production in Sichuan after 1952 Table 2.41: Fixed investment in transportation and communications in Sichuan (millions of yuan) Table 2.42: Labor Productivity in Chinese Steel Industries, 1984 Table 2.43: Growth of the coal sector in the Third Front zones, 1964 - 1980 Table 2.44: Growth of the oil and transport sector in the Third Front zones, 1964 - 1980 Table 2.45: Growth of the electricity sector in the Third Frontline areas, 1965 - 1980 Table 2.4 6: Railroads, electrification and double tracks in China, 1880 - 1988 (km) Table 2.47: Contribution of small - scale industry Table 2.48: Development of China's rural industry 1970 - 78 Table 2.49: New Installed Production Capacity in Selected Industries by Five - Year Plan Period, 1966 - 1980 Table 2.50: Industrial Growth in China and Other Countries, 1957 - 79 Table 2.51: International Energy Comparisons Table 2.52: Overall labor productivity index of state - owned independently accountable industrial enterprises by branch of industry, 1957 - 78 (1952=100). Table 2.53: VBPIpc in rural Wenzhou and Sunan, 1952 - 78 Box 2.54: China Closing the Technol ogy Gap Table 2.55: Articles on science and technology in Peking Review between 1966 - 70 Table 2.56: Field machinery in selected countries, 1973 Table 2.57: Mechanization in agriculture between 1975 - 96 Table 2.58: Allocation of government capital constructi on investment in agriculture Table 2.59: Trend growth in the use of manufactured fertilizers, 1952 - 87 Table 2.60: International comparisons of grain yields (kilograms per hectare sown) Table 2.61: Land productivity growth, 1952 - 2005 (growth in grain yields per year) Table 2.62: Multiple cropping index, 1970 - 1987 Table 2.63: Growth of height and weight in Sichuan cities Table 2.64: Prevalence of moderate and severe malnutrition (%), 1986 - 89 Table 2.65: Percentage of malnourished 7 - year - olds, 16 provinces, 1979 Table 2.66: Percentage of malnourished children, various ages, 1975 Table 2.66: Percentage of malnourished children, various ages, 1975 Table 2.67: Percentage of malnourished children, various ages, 1975 Table 2.68: Height growth by decade for several countries compared to China Table 2.69: Growth in height (centimeters) and weight (kilograms) by decade of urban Chinese children between 1951/58 - 1979 Table 2.70: Growth in height (centimeters) of men by decade in the urban area by province Table 2.71: Growth in height (centimeters) of men by decade in rural (suburban) China Table 2.72: Growth in height (centimeters) of males and females by decade in 16 major cities in China between 1950s - 1985 and 1985 - 2005. Table 2.73: Weight growth (kilograms) of males and females by decade in 16 major cities in China between 1950s - 1985 and 1985 - 2005. Table 2.74: Growth in weight (kilograms) and height (centimeters) of males and females by decade in 12 major cities of China between 1950s - 1985 Table 2.75: A verage weight (kilograms) and height (centimeters) growth by decade for males and females between 7 - 18 years of age Table 2.76: Average weight (kilograms) and height (centimeters) growth by decade for males and females aged 7 - 18 years at three time points Table 2.77: Average weight (kilograms) and height (centimeters) growth by decade of males and females aged 7 - 17 years by ethnicity in China. Table 2.78: Growth in height (centimeters) by decade for males and females aged 7 - 17 in Inner Mongolia Table 2.79: Weight growth (kilograms) by decade for males and females aged 7 - 17 Inner Mongolia Table 2.80: Growth in height (centimeters) and weight (kilograms) by decade for women in China Table 2.81: Height growth (centimeters) by decade in Chinese women and men aged 18 years Table 2.82: Growth in height (centimeters) by decade for women and men in Beijing Table 2.83: Chinese children aged 7 - 22 years who are severely underweight and severely underweight Table 2.84: Prevalence of underweight in China, 1982 - 1992 Table 2.85: Prevalence of malnutrition in children under 5 years of age, 1985 Table 2.86: Percentage of children under 5 years of age with low weight for height, 1987 Table 2.87: Percentage of children under 5 years of age with low weight for age, 1987 Table 2.88: Height growth by decade of various countries compared to China Table 2.89: Reduction of menarche by decade in various countries Table 2.90: Improvement of the Chinese health system between 1949 - 57 Table 2.91: Urban maternal mortality, 1940 - 59 Table 2.91: Urban maternal mortality, 1940 - 59 Table 2.92: Improvement in the quality of life in Maoist China and in different countries Table 2.93: Chinese life expectancy (men and women) compared to other countries Table 2.94: Comparisons Maoist vs. reformist China Table 2.95: Development of primary education Table 2.96: Women's representation in the National People's Congress (NPC) Table 2.97: Female representation on the NPC Standing Committee ( Full Members ) Table 2.98: Women' s representation in the Party Central Committee ( Full members ) Table 2.99: Afforestation in the First Five - Year Plan PART 3 Table 3.1: Development of collectivization at the national level Table 3.2: Price increases in acquisitions in 1979 Table 3.3: Agric ultural production indices by province, 1972 - 83 Table 3.4: Growth of late and early de - collectivized counties Table 3.5: Share of the crop sector in agricultural employment and production (percentages) Table 3.6: Sectoral differences in productivity in Chi na, yuan per worker (1978 - 96) Table 3.7: Total uses of grain produced in China (millions of tons) Table 3.8: Investment in fixed assets by the agricultural sector (billions of yuan) Table 3.9: Investment in fixed assets by rural residents Table 3.10: Regression results for 1982 - 99/2000 by province Table 3.11: Comparison of other sources with county annals Table 3.12: Distribution of deaths by event Table 3.13: Distribution of deaths b y event Table 3.14: Distribution of deaths by event Table 3.13: Death underreporting rate Table 3.14 Time it took to go from a GDPpc of 1,500 to 6,000 APPENDIX Table A.1: China's annual "anomalous population changes" (10,000) Table A.2: Changes in urban po pulation, 1956 - 59 (10,000) Table A.3: Rural population changes, 1956 - 59 (10,000) Table A.4: Rural - urban migration, 1956 - 59 (10,000) Table A.5: Urban population changes, 1960 - 63 (10,000) Table A.6: Rural population changes, 1960 - 63 (10,000) Ta ble A.7: Rural - urban migration, 1961 - 63 (10,000) Table A.8: Rural - urban migration, 1961 - 63 (10,000) Table A.8: Rural - urban migration, 1961 - 63 (10,000) PART 1 Figure 1.1: Production of modern cotton spindles in China (1,000), 1890 - 1936 Figure 1.2: Silk and silk goods production, 1912 - 1949 Figure 1.3: Cotton yarn production (1,000), 1890 - 1949 Figure 1.4: Trends in real wages in China and Europe PART 2 Figure 2.1: Growth of heavy and light industrial production, 1952 - 57 Figure 2.2: Growth in industrial gross value added and gross fixed capital formation Figure 2.3: Average acreage per household, by class category, before and after land reform. Figure 2.4: Number of provinces that eliminated the right of exit (%) Figure 2.5: Changing trend of flood - affected area in China (area affected ( ×104ha )), 1950 - 2013. Figure 2.6: Changing trend of drought affected area in China (area affected ( ×104ha )), 1950 - 2013. Figure 2.7: Percentage of China's grain losses due to natural disasters Figure 2.8: Annual v ariations of agricultural drought loss rate between observed and simulated values at the national scale from 1949 to 2015. Figure 2.9: Capital formation by region Figure 2.10: Length of roads (10,000 km), 1949 - 1978 Figure 2.11: Length of roads (10,000 km), 1970 - 1998 Figure 2.12: Trends in labor productivity in Chinese industry, 1965 - 1978 Figure 2.13: Engineers and technicians in the PRC by year and number, 1952 - 1962 Figure 2.14: Cultivation with machines, 1952 - 83 Figure 2.15: Investment in Agriculture, 1958 - 82 Figure 2.16: Birth rate: The number of births per 1,000 persons in the population, 1949 - 90. Figure 2.17: Irrigated area as a percentage of total sown area, 1949 - 1984 Figure 2.18: Mechanized irrigation Figure 2.19: Percentage of area pl anted to hybrid cereal seed varieties Figure 2.20: Pesticide Production Figure 2.21: Incremental chemical fertilizer production capacity (in 10,000 tons), 1953 - 1985. Figure 2.22: Chemical fertilizer used per mu cultivated (kilograms per nutrient value), 19 52 - 1986 Figure 2.23: Domestically produced vs. imported chemical fertilizers (in 10,000 tons), 1949 - 1983 Figure 2.24: Rice Yields in Asia and the United States, 1961 - 2004 Figure 2.25: Labor productivity trends in collective farming, 1955 - 1981 Figure 2.26: Commune members' share of collective income Figure 2.27: Rural governance structure in commune - era China Figure 2.28: Rural governance structure in commune - era China Figure 2.29: Rural governance structure in commune - era China Figure 2.30: Rural governanc e structure in commune - era China Figure 2.28: Actual distribution and level of nutrition of children Figure 2.29: Height of adult Chinese men, 1895 - 1899 to 1925 - 1929. Figure 2.30: Estimated mean trend in adult height by region, 1895 - 1899 to 1925 - 1929. Figure 2.31: Trends in Chinese height samples by birth cohort. Figure 2.32: A theoretical trend of the secular height of Southern Chinese in 1810 - 1920 in comparative perspective. Figure 2.33: Height of Chinese immigrants, men (ages 24 - 50) and women (ages 21 - 50) Figure 2.34: Height growth (centimeters) by decade for boys Figure 2.35: Height growth (centimeters) by decade for girls Figure 2.36: Weight growth (kilograms) by decade for boys Figure 2.37: Weight growth (kilograms) by decade for gir ls Figure 2.38: Height growth by decade for 11 - year - old girls Figure 2.39: Weight growth by decade for 11 - year - old girls Figure 2.40: Weight growth by decade for 11 - year - old girls Figure 2.41: Weight growth by decade for 11 - year - old girls Figure 2.41: Weig ht growth by decade for 11 - year - old girls Figure 2.42: Weight growth by decade for 11 - year - old girls Figure 2.43: Weight growth by decade for 11 - year - old girls Figure 2.44: Weight growth by decade for 11 - year - old girls Figure 2.45: Weight growth by decade for 11 - year - old girls Figure 2.45: Weight growth by decade for 11 - year - old girls Figure 2.40: Height growth (centimeters) by decade in Beijing children (1950s - 79). Figure 2.41: Height growth (centimeters) by decade in Shanghai children (1950s - 79). Figure 2 .42: BMI disparity of 17 - year - old males at the provincial level Figure 2.43: BMI disparity of 17 - year - old females at the provincial level Figure 2.44: BMI disparity of 17 - year - old females at the provincial level Figure 2 .45: BMI disparity of 17 - year - old females at the provincial level Figure 2.44: Comparison of the height of Chinese and Japanese children aged 7 to 17 between 1950 and 1985. Figure 2.45: Age at menarche in Chinese girls. Figure 2.46: Infant mortality per 1,000 live births Figure 2.47: Primary enrollment (millions), 1962 - 90 Figure 2.48: Secondary enrollment (millions), 1962 - 90 Figure 2.49: Forested area in China (%) Figure 2.50: Cultivated land in China (1949 - 1988) Figure 2.51: Cultivated land in Ningxia (1949 - 1995) Figure 2.52: Cultivated Land in Inner Mongolia (1949 - 1996 ) Figure 2.53: Sheep and goat numbers in Yanchi and Ningxia County (1949 - 1988) Figure 2.54: Sheep and goat numbers in Inner Mongolia (1949 - 1988) Figure 2.55: National Livestock Statistics (1949 - 1995 ) PART 3 Figur e 3.1: Poverty rate in China ($1.9 per day), 1981 - 2016. Figure 3.2: China's grain production and total uses of grain produced in the country, 1981 - 2012. Figure 3.3: Grain production in China (106 tons), 1970 - 2004 Figure 3.4: Rural poverty in China, 1978 - 90 Figure 3.5: Rural poverty in China, 1978 - 96 Figure 3.6: Income per capita (1990 prices) rural area Figure 3.7: Number of workers in the industrial sector (thousands) Figure 3.8: Percentage of industrial employment Figure 3.9: Weekly working hours in China in urban areas, 2003 - 18 Figure 3.10: Weekly working hours in Chinese industry, 1949 - 2009 APPENDIX Figure A.1: Cumulative figures of China's anomalous population changes at the end of the year. of year, 1954 - 82 (10,000) Prologue by Armando Salazar has embarked on the extensive task of reviewing contemporary Chinese history. The first part narrates the disastrous situation for the masses (the pre - revolutionary era) and how the governments did, or rather, tried to cope with the so cio - economic problems of the time by interfering with wars, famines and social chaos. In the second part the author shows, based on first hand sources and a multitude of authors who have gone into the matter (to name a few Bramall, 2007; 2008; Gao, 2008; Einsenman, 2018), about the situation of the masses in China during Maoism, confronting many other authors for their lack of rigorousness, especially regarding the Great Leap Forward and other policies taken after the arrival of the CCP in power (Four Plag ues Campaign, the Cultural Revolution and the alleged radicalism "of" Mao). Demonstrating how once again falsehood was imposed on reality , as other authors have already done on many occasions in the face of the dances of mortality figures, exaggerations an d manipulations occurred especially in the West regarding the Great Chinese Famine (Jingxian, 2012; Yang, 2013; Sun, 2013; Jingxian, 2016; Cheng Ying, 2016; Gao, 2018; Ball, 2019), where authors of black - legendary cut gain special fame, "in the sense that historiography is a weapon of political propaganda, although the adversary to beat is already outside the stage of Realpolitik " (López Rodríguez, 2018b), being in the case of this work the Maoist China the target of these authors, authors who, like Escohot ado, "do not get the math with the figures" (López Rodríguez, 2018a), something well known by specialists on the subject and rigorously demonstrated at the First International Conference on the Evolution of China's Land System ( 2014 ), a conference that held a public debate at the Central University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, where several important authors participated in the Great Leap Forward debate, among them the mathematician Sun Jingxian and Yang Songlin (2013), schola rs who demonstrated several manipulations of the famous (in the West) Yang Jisheng. The current work clearly narrates this fateful (for Jisheng) encounter clearly, and of course, numerous manipulations and inventions are also noted in the work of Dikötter (2010) who used three "exemplary" counties to talk about the situation in China (a country with more than 1,000 counties) and relied on invented facts such as an alleged interview documented by Becker (1998) with Chen Yizi, the then executive director of t he China Economic System Reform Institute. Dikotter also used Cao Shuji (2005), being that the latter went so far as to show a letter from the Party committee in which supposedly 30,000 people died of starvation in three years. Jingxian checked this letter and discovered that it had been manipulated by Cao. The letter said that 30,000 people had died in the 3 years (1959 - 61) throughout the county. However, nowhere does it speak of death by starvation. These are just a few