$9.99 Volume 4 - Issue 42 point spread weekly • Handicapping coverage of the NBA, MLB, NHL, PGA, NFL and college football FEATURING: TIME TO STOP BETTING THE YANKEES ? FAVORED IN OVER 93 % OF THEIR GAMES THIS SEASON , THE BRONX BOMBERS ARE HOVERING JUST ABOVE .500 , AND BACKERS OF THE PINSTRIPES ARE DOWN NEARLY 15 UNITS 2 POINT SPREAD WEEKLY WELCOME TO EDITOR DATABASE MANAGER LAYOUT AND DESIGN VP OF DIGITAL CONTENT STEVE MAKINEN JASON LATUS MATT DEVINE BEN FAWKES CONTRIBUTING WRITERS AND EDITORS: Matt Youmans, Dave Tuley, Jonathan Von Tobel, Wes Reynolds, Bruce Marshall, Brady Kannon, Lou Finocchiaro, Vinny Magliulo, Ron Flatter, Mitch Moss, Josh Appelbaum, Jason Weingarten, Drew Dinsick, Paul Stone, Tim Murray, Danny Burke, William Hill, Aaron Moore, Adam Kramer, Tom Carkeek, David Dorman, Derek Carty, Andy MacNeil and Brent Musburger. photos by USA Today Sports Images VOLUME 4 ISSUE 42 POINT SPREAD WEEKLY Just like the sports betting world, Point Spread Weekly keeps chugging along, and we have reached Issue No. 42 of our fourth campaign, meaning PSW No. 200 is just two weeks away. We are excited about that, but we are equally thrilled to bring you all of this week’s key coverage of the NBA, NHL, MLB, college football, soccer, golf and UFC. June and July always provide an eclectic mix of betting options, and we have experts to share their insights on all of it. Leading off as usual is Matt Youmans, who has taken time away from his busy live programming schedule to share a column on Major League Baseball and the Yankees in particular, who, as he puts it, are off the rails. They have become virtually unbettable, with what was supposed to be one of baseball’s best offenses stuck in neutral. Be sure to get all of the current Yankees analysis from Youmans and a trio of other industry experts in our cover story. I also put together an MLB report, and the Yankees happen to be part of it. The story focuses on 10 teams that have had dramatically different results in day games compared with night games this season. New York would be just fine if all its games were at night. However, that’s not the case, and for whatever reason, the Yanks have struggled in day games. The same, and the exact opposite, can be said for nine other teams. My other piece is a lengthy study on how the recruiting rankings offered by websites like 247sports correlate with the on-field success of college football programs. I have dug into the recruiting scores for all 130 FBS teams over the last decade-plus and have drawn some conclusions. I also project some of the teams that might be ready to rise or fall in 2021 based on the analysis. The NBA and NHL playoffs have been our most popular show subjects over the last couple of weeks, and our top analysts, Jonathan Von Tobel in the NBA and Andy MacNeil in the NHL, are back to share some of their insights. We are well into the second round of both leagues’ postseasons, and the betting action is heating up. Speaking of NBA action, William Hill steps out on the ledge and gives us picks for each of the next two nights’ key games. Euro 2020 gets started Friday, and Nigel Seeley has prepared a well-timed outlook handicapping the action. It looks to be a very competitive field, with the top seven nations being listed at single-digit odds to win at various books, making it what Seeley terms a deceivingly tough event to call. He has a favorite or two, though, and shares his homework with us. June is always a huge month on the links, and I don’t know anyone who bets golf without getting the analysis from Wes Reynolds. This week brings us a U.S. Open tune- up event from South Carolina, the Palmetto Championship. Several of the world’s top players will be using this as a final prep for Torrey Pines next week. Reynolds has his usual course analysis, key stat angles and top betting selections ready for our avid golf bettors. Last but not least, another big night of UFC action is set for Saturday in Glendale, Ariz., and we are again fortunate to have Reed Kuhn and Lou Finocchiaro on the double- team coverage. The UFC 263 card is intriguing. Kuhn has previews and picks on two title bouts, while Finocchiaro breaks down three other fights. Hopefully PSW Issue No. 42 helps get you ready to cash in. We’ll also have plenty of coverage of all of it in the studio this week if you need more. Steve Makinen, Editor @SteveMakinen | steve@vsin.com For more sports betting information, visit www.vsin.com PAGE 5 HOW CFB RECRUITING RANKS CAN AID YOUR HANDICAPPING CONTENTS Oddsmakers Stand by Yanks Even After Red Sox’s Sweep .......... 3 Steve Makinen’s NBA Power Ratings ........................................11 Clippers Check All Boxes as Team to Beat in West ................... 12 Warning: Twists, Turns Ahead in Competitive NBA Playoffs ....... 13 Steve Makinen’s NBA Strength Ratings .................................... 14 NBA Team Report .................................................................. 15 NBA Head-to-Head Trends ...................................................... 15 Steve Makinen’s MLB Power Ratings ....................................... 16 Difference in Performance Night and Day for MLB Teams ......... 17 MLB Team Report................................................................... 19 Steve Makinen’s NHL Power Ratings ....................................... 21 Lower the Broom on Montreal? Not So Fast: Sweeps Are Rare ... 22 NHL Team Report .................................................................. 23 Sandy Course Awaits PGA Stars in Unusual U.S. Open Tuneup .... 24 Adesanya Poised for Payback Against Vettori in UFC 263 ........ 27 Evloev, Craig Worth Wagers in Title Bouts at UFC 263 ............. 29 France the Team to Beat, Spain a Threat in Euro ‘20 ................ 30 Steve Makinen’s NFL Power Ratings ........................................ 31 Steve Makinen’s NFL Strength Ratings ..................................... 32 Strength Ratings Tutorial ......................................................... 33 3 POINT SPREAD WEEKLY Your TRUSTED SOURCE for EXCLUSIVE SPORTS BETTING NEWS, DATA & ANALYSIS ODDSMAKERS STAND BY YANKS EVEN AFTER RED SOX’S SWEEP If one player currently symbolizes the sad state of the Yankees, it’s Giancarlo Stanton. In a cameo appearance Sunday against the Red Sox, Stanton stepped to the plate to pinch-hit, appearing menacing and powerful. As is often the case, he went down without a fight, weakly waving at the third strike. Stanton is stuck in a miserable slump, but he’s not alone. There are plenty of boos to go around in New York. The preseason American League favorites and the second choice to win the World Series behind the Dodgers slipped to fourth in the AL East after getting swept by the Red Sox in a three-game weekend series in the Bronx. On May 10, the Yankees were 18-16 and the Dodgers 18-17. The storyline in this column at the time: It’s a long season and no time to panic. The Dodgers won 13 of the next 15 games to get back on track. A month later, the Yankees remain off the rails. “A lot of people are sick of watching the Yankees, but they still bet them, and they bet them again Sunday,” said Vinny Magliulo, VSiN oddsmaker and veteran Las Vegas bookmaker. “There’s no way they could get swept by the Red Sox, right?” The Red Sox found a way to win 6-5 in 10 innings, and the Yankees getting broomed by Boston was embarrassing. The game ended on a groundout by DJ LeMahieu, who was batting .253 a year after he led MLB at .364. The Yankees ranked 27th in the majors in runs per game — only the Mets, Tigers and Pirates were worse — and that’s just the beginning of the list of their offensive failures. At the 60-game mark, which represented the entire number of regular-season games in 2020, the Yankees (31-29) were 6.5 games behind first-place Tampa Bay (38-23) in the division while also looking up at Boston (37-23) and Toronto (30-27). Still, BetMGM lists the Yankees as the +375 second choice to win the AL, behind the favored White Sox (3-1) and ahead of the Rays (+450). The Yankees are the +850 fourth choice to win the World Series, ahead of the Rays (15-1) and Red Sox (20-1). Do the oddsmakers know some kind of secret? The Yankees’ lofty standing on the odds board is due mostly to the amount of money they have attracted and the liability the books face. “Overall, the Yankees are perceived as a better team than the Rays by oddsmakers, and that’s reflected by the World Series odds,” MGM Resorts director of trading Jeff Stoneback said. “Also, the public perceives the Yankees as a better team, reflected by twice as many Series tickets written on them as the Rays. If it was a playoff series starting today, the Yankees would be favored against the Rays.” The Yankees were odds-on favorites to win the East in the preseason and have dipped to the +200 second choice, with the Rays favored at +135. The Red Sox might be the best bet at +350. Tampa Bay’s favored status in the division is based more on reality and its cushion over the Yanks. “With about 100 games left in the season, it would be tough for the Rays to stay so hot, and the feeling is the Yankees will play to expectations,” Stoneback said. That feeling is probably deceiving. The Yankees’ season win total was set at 95 — far above the Rays (88) and Red Sox (79) — but it’s now obvious those expectations were too high. The problems start with an offense that was batting .228 and scoring 3.72 runs per game. It’s easy to pinpoint the problems with the team in pinstripes. “I guess we all overrated the lineup,” said Dave Cokin, a Las Vegas baseball handicapper. “It’s supposed to be a 100-win lineup, but they can’t hit and it’s not phony. The Yankees are just a bad offensive team. Everything is wrong. The Yankees can’t hit, the starting pitching has been a little shaky and their bullpen, which was supposed to be as good as it gets, is not that good.” Aaron Judge is the only regular in the lineup sniffing a .300 batting average. Judge was leading the team by hitting .295 with 14 home runs and 32 RBIs. In addition to the struggles of LeMahieu and Stanton, shortstop Gleyber Torres had only three homers in 184 at-bats, beleaguered catcher Gary Sanchez was batting .210 and outfielders Clint Frazier and Brett Gardner were below .200. “The Bombers have played 60 games and may soon be forced to forfeit that nickname, considering they have scored three runs or fewer in 33 games,” said VSiN analyst William Hill, who admits to being a frustrated Yankees fan. “It’s June, it’s no longer a small sample size, and while the Yankees are still within striking distance of a playoff spot, it’s clear this isn’t the title team many hoped or thought it would be.” On Sunday, the Yankees’ starting first baseman was Chris Gittens, who went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. Who and why? Regular first baseman Luke Voit, who led MLB with 22 homers last year, has been injured and limited to 12 games. Torres has totaled only six homers since the start of the 2020 season after blasting 38 in 2019. “If you look at the last couple seasons, Torres is just a middle-of-the-road guy, and that’s about it,” Cokin said. “Unless he gets going, I don’t think the team gets going.” The Stanton situation is sticky business. In December 2017, the Yankees acquired him from Miami and committed $265 million to a high-risk, high- reward slugger who’s signed through 2027. It was a questionable call by general manager Brian Cashman then, and it looks bad now. When he’s hot, Stanton is awesome. When he’s not, he’s a strikeout machine. The lineup features too many right-handed bats. Cashman whiffed on opportunities to land left-handed power hitters Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani. Gerrit Cole has played his part as the ace of the pitching staff. But aside from signing Cole to a nine-year, $324 million contract in December 2019, Cashman has made few big splashes. (continued on next page) BY MATT YOUMANS @MATTYOUMANS247 4 POINT SPREAD WEEKLY Your TRUSTED SOURCE for EXCLUSIVE SPORTS BETTING NEWS, DATA & ANALYSIS These are not the Yankees of the George Steinbrenner era, and they have not won a World Series since 2009, the year before Steinbrenner’s death. The San Diego Padres, never known as big-market spenders, have been more aggressive in recent years than Cashman and the Yankees. Harper and Manny Machado each wanted to sign with the Yankees, yet Harper went to Philadelphia and Machado to San Diego. “Machado, Harper and Trevor Bauer all hit the free-agent market, and all went somewhere other than the team that was once known and hated for getting every player, whether they needed them or not,” Hill said. “Ohtani is captivating baseball and is just a few healthy months away from winning the MVP in one of the most incredible displays of talent we’ve ever seen. He is doing it in an Angels uniform. Aside from signing Cole, the Yankees have become extremely frugal and careful, both in free agency and in the trade market.” Baseball is a spend-to-win business. The overrated Cashman will be under pressure to fix the roster flaws this summer and try to reload for the second half. “The Yankees are going to have to do something, but it’s not just a one- player fix,” Cokin said. Is it time to change the manager? Aaron Boone is a player-friendly clubhouse boss, much more laid back than predecessor Joe Girardi, whom Cashman fired in 2017. “I think you have to start talking about (Boone), though maybe give it another month and see if things turn around,” Cokin said. “I watch a lot of games, and even some of the bad teams have fun out there. The Yankees seem to be flat and don’t have much fun. I thought the division would be a really good two-team race with the Rays and Yankees, and it’s now looking like it could be the Rays and Red Sox.” Boston has been in a rebuilding phase since dealing star outfielder Mookie Betts to the Dodgers in February 2020, but the rebuild is ahead of schedule. “If the Red Sox remain in it, they could make a play for a guy like Max Scherzer and roll the dice with him,” Magliulo said. Scherzer, set to hit free agency in the offseason, is a valuable trade chip for the Nationals. He was 5-4 through 12 starts with 104 strikeouts in 77 innings to go with a 0.82 WHIP and 2.22 ERA. Scherzer still is a stud, so why would Cashman let him go to Boston? Scherzer is the type of pitcher who could change the odds for the Yankees or Red Sox this summer. The Nationals had a 42-41 record at the end of June in 2019, when Scherzer helped lead them on a second-half surge en route to the World Series title. Magliulo recalled the 1978 season, when the Yankees were 14 games behind the Red Sox after the All-Star break in July. The Yankees caught fire and eventually went to Boston and beat the Red Sox in a one-game playoff for the AL East title. Bucky Dent’s go-ahead three-run homer in the seventh inning is one of the most memorable moments in baseball history. The moral of the story is never give up on a team too soon, especially the Yankees. While public perception of these Yankees, who closed as betting favorites in 56 of their first 60 games, might finally be deteriorating, oddsmakers will resist major adjustments. “As a bookmaker, you have to bear in mind they are the Yankees and they have resources,” Magliulo said. “There is plenty of time to turn it around. You can’t overreact just yet.” Giancarlo Stanton 5 POINT SPREAD WEEKLY Your TRUSTED SOURCE for EXCLUSIVE SPORTS BETTING NEWS, DATA & ANALYSIS HOW CFB RECRUITING RANKS CAN AID YOUR HANDICAPPING BY STEVE MAKINEN @STEVEMAKINEN Championships are often won off the field or court. Recruiting plays such a huge role in college sports, and football is at the top of the list. It is one of the most important factors in building a college football program. However, being versed in the recruiting game shouldn’t be considered essential only for coaches; those betting should have a good handle on it as well. There is naturally a direct relationship between the success a team has on the recruiting trail and what it has on the field. Fortunately for us bettors, there are now numerous sources that help us to better understand how well a team is faring in the process, not only qualitatively but quantitatively. Perhaps the leader in the arena, and a well- trusted service, 247Sports (247sports.com) logs all of the recruits for every team each season and generates a numerical grade based on the combined scores of the players a team signs. I started a process last year during the COVID-19 downturn in looking hard at these numerical recruiting rankings of the FBS programs over the last decade and more, and as usual, anything numerically rated can be turned into useful foundational betting analysis. It’s well known that schools like Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Ohio State are wildly successful in the recruiting game, and their consistent on-field success can be attributed accordingly. In fact, Alabama has scored the highest national rating on 247Sports in nine of the last 11 seasons, with Georgia filling in the gaps in the other two years, including 2020. The Tide regained the top spot for 2021. Again, none of this is earth-shattering news, but with all of that said, finding other lower-radar teams that might be ready to surprise because of unusually good or bad recent recruiting classes can be crucial to success in betting on college football. Similarly, knowing which teams are trending in the right or wrong direction in terms of recruiting success can also prove to be beneficial for the handicapper. Of course, there’s also the matter of taking recruits and making a team out of them, otherwise known as coaching. Knowing which programs make the most or least out of their recruiting classes should be a fundamental part of your college football knowledge base. I am going to address all of those subjects in this article, including projecting this year’s standings by conference based solely on the recruiting rankings from 247Sports and a predictive formula that I was able to uncover using regression analysis. 2021 PROJECTED STANDINGS USING LAST 3 YEARS RECRUITING RANKINGS After compiling all of the year-by-year recruiting rankings for the FBS teams since 2007, and comparing them to the teams’ actual records and my final power ratings in a given season, I was able to determine that the most predictive time frame of a team’s success on the field came when considering its last three recruiting classes. It was greater than one year, two years, four years, and any special combined formulas I derived using the one- to four- year window. As is the case with any statistical study, there are exceptions to the rule, but knowing what I know from 20-plus years in this industry on both sides of the counter, I am comfortable with using this three-year time window analyzing teams’ prospects for a season. That said, we could see some change to the grades for each window after this coming season because of the extra year of eligibility granted to players (super seniors) following the COVID-19 season. On the next page are the would-be projected standings for the 2021 season for each conference using their combined average rank for their last three recruiting classes (2021, 2020, 2019). Remember that these projections include no other factor than the perceived talent level of the players when they signed into each team’s recruiting class. You will see there are literally no major surprises projected at the top of any of the conference standings. The MAC could see some change from last year based on these numbers, as well as Conference USA. Also, win-starved fans of UNLV could be in for a better than usual season based upon the No. 2 projection in the Mountain West. Surely you can find plenty of more useful tidbits as you study the recruiting rankings chart by conference. TEAMS THAT DO THE MOST/LEAST WITH ITS RECRUITING CLASSES Signing a quality recruiting class is only the start of the story. Coaches need to develop the individual talent they acquire and mold it into a functioning unit in order to be successful. Some programs have demonstrated this ability far better than others. While some programs take a modestly rated recruiting class and make a winning program out of it, there are others that take a highly rated class and underachieve on the field. Let’s take a look at some of the programs that have distinctly demonstrated the opposite ends of this spectrum. The teams below are sorted by the difference between their average national recruiting rankings over the last five years as compared with their end-of-year power rating on my scale. As you analyze the merits of why each of these teams appears on the list, be sure to consider which programs have made coaching changes in recent years and as a result, how relevant this info might be for 2021. TOP 20 TEAMS WHOSE ON-FIELD PERFORMANCE CONSISTENTLY EXCEEDS ITS RECRUITING RATING As you look at the teams on the “overachieving” list, you’ll see a common trend in that these schools typically have either stable coaching situations or undergo changes that involve a coach leaving willingly because he was hired away by another program. Such is the case for No. 1 on the list, a program (Appalachian State) that is heading into 2021 with Shawn Clark coaching in his second year, the first time the Mountaineers have had the same coach as the prior season since 2018. Interestingly, the three armed forces teams find themselves in the Nos. 2-3 spots, a credit to the quality character of kids those teams recruit. Another thing to note here is that the top six teams are all the same as a year ago when I conducted this study, only shuffled a bit differently in the Nos. 3-6 spots. (continued on next page) 6 POINT SPREAD WEEKLY Your TRUSTED SOURCE for EXCLUSIVE SPORTS BETTING NEWS, DATA & ANALYSIS Zach Gibson ACC American Athletic Big 12 Conf 3-Year Natl Conf 3-Year Natl Conf 3-Year Natl Rk Team Avg Rk Rk Team Avg Rk Rk Team Avg Rk 1 CLEMSON 6.00 4 1 CINCINNATI 53.67 54 1 OKLAHOMA 9.00 8 2 MIAMI FL 17.00 16 2 MEMPHIS 60.00 60 1 TEXAS 9.00 8 3 NORTH CAROLINA 21.00 18 3 UCF 61.67 65 3 OKLAHOMA ST 37.67 35 3 FLORIDA ST 21.00 18 4 SMU 66.67 68 4 TCU 39.67 38 5 NC STATE 36.00 33 5 HOUSTON 79.00 77 5 WEST VIRGINIA 41.67 43 6 VIRGINIA 39.67 39 6 TULANE 80.00 78 6 BAYLOR 44.67 45 7 GEORGIA TECH 41.00 42 7 SOUTH FLORIDA 80.33 79 7 IOWA ST 50.00 51 8 PITTSBURGH 43.33 44 8 EAST CAROLINA 81.33 80 8 KANSAS ST 56.33 57 9 VIRGINIA TECH 47.00 47 9 TEMPLE 105.33 108 9 TEXAS TECH 61.00 62 10 LOUISVILLE 50.00 52 10 CONNECTICUT 114.33 121 10 KANSAS 63.00 66 11 BOSTON COLLEGE 54.67 55 11 TULSA 115.00 122 12 DUKE 55.67 56 12 NAVY 116.67 123 13 SYRACUSE 57.00 59 14 WAKE FOREST 61.00 63 Big Ten Conference USA MAC Conf 3-Year Natl Conf 3-Year Natl Conf 3-Year Natl Rk Team Avg Rk Rk Team Avg Rk Rk Team Avg Rk 1 OHIO ST 7.00 6 1 FLA ATLANTIC 72.00 73 1 TOLEDO 70.33 71 2 MICHIGAN 11.67 11 2 NORTH TEXAS 73.67 74 2 MIAMI OHIO 88.33 85 3 PENN ST 16.00 15 3 FLA INTERNATIONAL 82.00 81 3 W MICHIGAN 91.67 89 4 NEBRASKA 19.00 17 4 TX-SAN ANTONIO 91.33 88 4 N ILLINOIS 96.00 95 5 WISCONSIN 23.33 21 5 LOUISIANA TECH 92.00 90 5 C MICHIGAN 100.00 100 6 MARYLAND 32.00 28 6 SOUTHERN MISS 93.33 92 6 BOWLING GREEN 105.67 109 7 IOWA 33.33 29 7 MARSHALL 95.00 93 7 KENT ST 108.00 113 8 MICHIGAN ST 40.00 40 8 UAB 96.67 96 8 OHIO U 109.00 115 9 MINNESOTA 40.33 41 9 RICE 98.00 97 9 E MICHIGAN 110.00 116 10 PURDUE 44.67 46 10 W KENTUCKY 98.33 98 10 BUFFALO 110.67 117 11 NORTHWESTERN 49.00 49 11 MIDDLE TENN ST 100.00 101 11 BALL ST 113.00 119 11 INDIANA 49.00 49 12 OLD DOMINION 104.00 105 12 AKRON 119.00 125 13 RUTGERS 56.67 58 13 CHARLOTTE 107.67 111 14 ILLINOIS 70.33 70 14 UTEP 122.00 130 Mountain West Pac 12 SEC Conf 3-Year Natl Conf 3-Year Natl Conf 3-Year Natl Rk Team Avg Rk Rk Team Avg Rk Rk Team Avg Rk 1 BOISE ST 61.67 64 1 OREGON 8.33 7 1 ALABAMA 1.33 1 2 UNLV 82.00 82 2 WASHINGTON 22.33 20 2 GEORGIA 2.33 2 3 SAN DIEGO ST 85.00 84 3 USC 27.00 25 3 LSU 4.00 3 4 COLORADO ST 91.00 87 4 STANFORD 30.33 27 4 TEXAS A&M 6.00 5 5 FRESNO ST 92.67 91 5 UCLA 34.33 30 5 FLORIDA 9.67 10 6 NEVADA 99.00 99 6 UTAH 34.67 31 6 AUBURN 12.33 12 7 AIR FORCE 103.00 103 6 ARIZONA ST 34.67 31 7 TENNESSEE 15.00 14 8 NEW MEXICO 104.67 106 8 CALIFORNIA 37.00 34 8 OLE MISS 24.33 22 9 WYOMING 107.00 110 9 COLORADO 47.67 48 9 MISSISSIPPI ST 25.67 23 10 UTAH ST 111.67 118 10 WASHINGTON ST 60.33 61 10 ARKANSAS 26.00 24 11 SAN JOSE ST 121.00 128 11 ARIZONA 64.67 67 11 KENTUCKY 30.33 26 12 HAWAII 121.33 129 12 OREGON ST 71.00 72 12 MISSOURI 38.33 36 13 SOUTH CAROLINA 39.33 37 14 VANDERBILT 52.33 53 Sun Belt Independents Conf 3-Year Natl Conf 3-Year Natl Rk Team Avg Rk Rk Team Avg Rk 1 LA LAFAYETTE 74.33 75 1 NOTRE DAME 14.00 13 2 APPALACHIAN ST 85.00 83 2 LIBERTY 68.50 69 3 TROY 90.00 86 3 BYU 78.00 76 4 ARKANSAS ST 96.00 94 4 ARMY 108.00 112 5 GA SOUTHERN 102.00 102 5 MASSACHUSETTS 109.00 114 6 GEORGIA ST 103.67 104 6 NEW MEXICO ST 119.67 127 7 COASTAL CAROLINA 105.33 107 8 LA MONROE 113.00 120 9 S ALABAMA 118.67 124 10 TEXAS ST UNIV 119.00 126 7 POINT SPREAD WEEKLY Your TRUSTED SOURCE for EXCLUSIVE SPORTS BETTING NEWS, DATA & ANALYSIS You’ll find that most of the teams on this list, 15 in fact, are from Group of 5 conferences. Only Kansas State (No. 12), Wisconsin (No. 15), Iowa (No. 17), Oklahoma State (No. 18), and Iowa State (No. 19) represent the Power 5 leagues. The Big Ten teams are particularly interesting cases in that both the Badgers (No. 15) and Iowa (No. 24) have just signed their highest-rated classes (2021 class) in any of the years of my study, which dates to 2007. Perhaps these programs are poised to join the elite class of college football in the coming years? 1. APPALACHIAN STATE: Recruiting Ranking: 102.2, EOY SM Power Rating: 47.2 — Difference: +55 2. AIR FORCE: Recruiting Ranking: 111.2, EOY SM Power Rating: 68 — Difference: +43.2 3. ARMY: Recruiting Ranking: 113.6, EOY SM Power Rating: 73.6 — Difference: +40 4. OHIO: Recruiting Ranking: 113.2, EOY SM Power Rating: 73.4 — Difference: +39.8 5. NAVY: Recruiting Ranking: 106.4, EOY SM Power Rating: 67.4 — Difference: +39 6. WYOMING: Recruiting Ranking: 110, EOY SM Power Rating: 71.6 — Difference: +38.4 7. BUFFALO: Recruiting Ranking: 118.8, EOY SM Power Rating: 83.2 — Difference: +35.6 8. UCF: Recruiting Ranking: 62.6, EOY SM Power Rating: 29.2 — Difference: +33.4 9. TULSA: Recruiting Ranking: 99.2, EOY SM Power Rating: 71.2 — Difference: +28 10. SAN DIEGO STATE: Recruiting Ranking: 86.4, EOY SM Power Rating: 60.6 — Difference: +25.8 11. BOISE STATE: Recruiting Ranking: 61.6, EOY SM Power Rating: 37.6 — Difference: +24 12. KANSAS STATE: Recruiting Ranking: 62.6, EOY SM Power Rating: 39 — Difference: +23.6 13. TEMPLE: Recruiting Ranking: 92.4, EOY SM Power Rating: 70.8 — Difference: +21.6 14. MEMPHIS: Recruiting Ranking: 66.4, EOY SM Power Rating: 45.4 — Difference: +21 15. WISCONSIN: Recruiting Ranking: 34.8, EOY SM Power Rating: 14 — Difference: +20.8 16. BYU: Recruiting Ranking: 70.4, EOY SM Power Rating: 50 — Difference: +20.4 17. IOWA: Recruiting Ranking: 40.6, EOY SM Power Rating: 20.4 — Difference: +20.2 18. OKLAHOMA STATE: Recruiting Ranking: 40, EOY SM Power Rating: 19.8 — Difference: +20.2 19. IOWA STATE: Recruiting Ranking: 50.8, EOY SM Power Rating: 31.2 — Difference: +19.6 20. EASTERN MICHIGAN: Recruiting Ranking: 117.8, EOY SM Power Rating: 98.2 — Difference: +19.6 TOP 20 TEAMS WHOSE RECRUITING RATINGS HAVE EXCEEDED THEIR ON-FIELD PERFORMANCE The programs on this “underachieving” list are those that more often than not are forced to fire their coaches because of lack of success. At the top of the list is a school (Rutgers) that rehired its most successful coach in program history before last season and enjoyed a renaissance 2020 campaign. In fact, the Scarlet Knights’ “difference” improved by 6.2 since this study last year, meaning another decent won-lost record in 2021 should take them off the top of this underachieving list by next spring. For the underachieving list, the top four teams remain the same, with a bit of a shuffle. UCLA at No. 9 falls back a bit from its No. 5 ranking last year. Overall, this list is dominated by Power 5 conference schools, who use the lure of playing in big-time college football games to sign good athletes but haven’t transferred that success to the field. The only Group of 5 schools you’ll find among this collection of underachievers are East Carolina (No. 9), Texas State (No. 17), San Jose State (No. 18) and Marshall (No. 19). Texas State could find itself off of the list next season, but not for a good reason. The Bobcats scored the lowest-rated 2021 class in the country by far, and thus continued struggles on the field won’t hurt nearly as badly in this form of analysis. In all honesty, it’s somewhat surprising to see Marshall on this list, as the Herd have had a good run of success. However, Doc Holliday’s recruiting classes were on par with very low-level Power 5 programs, so it could easily be argued that Marshall didn’t achieve anywhere near the level of success it should have recently. A total of seven teams from this group have welcomed new head coaches for 2021, including Kansas, Tennessee, South Carolina and Illinois among the top eight, so they will be interesting cases to follow. 1. RUTGERS: Recruit Ranking: 54.8, EOY SM Power Rating: 105 - Difference: -50.2 2. MARYLAND: Recruit Ranking: 36.2, EOY SM Power Rating: 76.6 - Difference: -40.4 3. KANSAS: Recruit Ranking: 66.6, EOY SM Power Rating: 104.4 - Difference: -37.8 4. ARKANSAS: Recruit Ranking: 26.6, EOY SM Power Rating: 64 - Difference: -37.4 5. UCLA: Recruit Ranking: 17.2, EOY SM Power Rating: 52.4 - Difference: -35.2 6. TENNESSEE: Recruit Ranking: 12.4, EOY SM Power Rating: 46 - Difference: -33.6 7. SOUTH CAROLINA: Recruit Ranking: 20.2, EOY SM Power Rating: 52 - Difference: -31.8 8. ILLINOIS: Recruit Ranking: 56.4, EOY SM Power Rating: 84.2 - Difference: -27.8 9. EAST CAROLINA: Recruit Ranking: 79.6, EOY SM Power Rating: 106.6 - Difference: -27 10. OREGON STATE: Recruit Ranking: 58.2, EOY SM Power Rating: 84.6 - Difference: -26.4 11. NEBRASKA: Recruit Ranking: 26, EOY SM Power Rating: 51.6 - Difference: -25.6 12. TEXAS: Recruit Ranking: 11.2, EOY SM Power Rating: 36.6 - Difference: -25.4 13. FLORIDA STATE: Recruit Ranking: 5.6, EOY SM Power Rating: 30.8 - Difference: -25.2 14. VANDERBILT: Recruit Ranking: 51, EOY SM Power Rating: 74.4 - Difference: -23.4 15. OLE MISS: Recruit Ranking: 18.8, EOY SM Power Rating: 42 - Difference: -23.2 16. ARIZONA STATE: Recruit Ranking: 26.8, EOY SM Power Rating: 49.6 - Difference: -22.8 17. TEXAS STATE: Recruit Ranking: 102.6, EOY SM Power Rating: 123.6 - Difference: -21 18. SAN JOSE STATE: Recruit Ranking: 87.8, EOY SM Power Rating: 106.2 - Difference: -18.4 19. MARSHALL: Recruit Ranking: 69.4, EOY SM Power Rating: 86.8 - Difference: -17.4 20. NORTH CAROLINA: Recruit Ranking: 27.4, EOY SM Power Rating: 44.2 - Difference: -16.8 (continued on next page) 8 POINT SPREAD WEEKLY Your TRUSTED SOURCE for EXCLUSIVE SPORTS BETTING NEWS, DATA & ANALYSIS TEAMS WHOSE RECRUITING APPEARS TO BE TRENDING IN ONE DIRECTION OR THE OTHER The recent success, or lack thereof, on the recruiting trail for teams figures to have a direct relationship with how they fare on the field in the coming years. Teams whose classes are improving consistently are likely to become more prominent on the national/conference stage, while those whose class strengths are declining could be experiencing downturns in the near future. Let’s take a look at teams on both ends. TEAMS WHOSE RECRUITING RANKINGS ARE TRENDING IN A POSITIVE DIRECTION Air Force (Last 4 years recruiting ranks: 118, 109, 106, 104) The Falcons signed a better class than the prior year for the fourth straight season this spring, a good sign considering Air Force has consistently been one of the best “overachieving” teams in the country. Appalachian State (Last 4 years recruiting ranks: 113, 99, 83, 73) The Mountaineers classes keep getting better & better despite what has been a flurry of coaching changes in recent years. This program is becoming a legitimate brand name and should continue to have great Sun Belt success in 2021 and beyond. Boston College (2021 recruiting rank: 37, prior 9-year average 67.7) Jeff Hatley enters his second season at Boston College riding some great offseason news, as his program signed its best class in any of the last 15 seasons. The results might not show up in 2021, but the future looks bright. California (Last 5 recruiting ranks: 70, 42, 43, 39, 29) California’s recruiting is showing a good pattern under fifth-year coach Justin Wilcox. In fact, the 2021 ranking of No. 29 is the school’s highest in 10 years. Cincinnati (Last 2 average recruiting rank: 41, 2010-19: 61.2) Cincinnati has put together its best two recruiting classes since before my study (2007). With QB Desmond Ridder back in 2021, Luke Fickell’s success should continue. Iowa (Last 3 recruiting ranks: 41, 35, 24 – prior 9-year average 44.7) Coach Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in college football, but clearly his recruiting message isn’t getting stale. He just scored his best class in over a decade, and his team could be on the cusp on taking another step forward. Louisiana (Last 3 recruiting ranks: 76, 79, 68 – prior 8-year average 110.7) The Ragin Cajuns are making it quite fashionable to play football in Lafayette. The program could make a big jump forward after three straight solid classes, including a decade-best No. 68 ranking in 2021. Maryland (Last 5 years average recruiting rank: 28.4, prior 6 years: 41.8) A solid uptick in recent recruiting classes should have Maryland in position to achieve some greater success in the coming years in the Big Ten. To put the 13.4 improvement in perspective over the last five seasons, it is the difference of being a mid-tier Big Ten team or a bottom feeder. Minnesota (Last 3 years average recruiting rank: 39.8, prior 7 years: 58.3) Three of the last four P.J. Fleck recruiting classes have ranked No. 38 in the country. From 2010 to 2017, Minnesota football did not have a class ranked better than No. 46. Fleck is having a great impact in the Twin Cities, on and off the field. North Carolina (Last 2 recruiting ranks: 19, 14 — prior 10 years, just once sub-20) Mack Brown is having a huge impact on recruiting at North Carolina, so much that this program should be dreaming much bigger on a national scale in the coming seasons. North Texas (Last 3 years average recruiting rank: 73.7 — prior 9-year average: 106.7) Coach Seth Littrell and North Texas should be due for a huge rebound after three straight banner recruiting classes by UNT standards. Oregon (Last 3 years recruiting rank: 7, 12, 6 — prior 9 years, no sub-12 rankings) Coach Mario Cristobal’s last three classes have been stellar, and the best in recent memory at Oregon, a school that most bettors feel recruits better than it really does. Perhaps the recent uptick is noticed on the field this fall. Pittsburgh (Last 2 recruiting ranks: 44, 27 — prior 10-year best: 30) Coach Pat Narduzzi is making Pittsburgh a college football town once again, and in 2021 welcomes the program’s best recruiting class in over a decade. Texas A&M (Last 3 recruiting ranks: 4, 6, 8 — prior 9-year average: 15.4) Texas A&M has always had good recruiting classes. Under Head Coach Jimbo Fisher, they have become great. The Aggies have gotten the talent over the last three seasons that have them poised to compete with the elite in the SEC. UTSA (Last 5 recruiting average: 86.8 — prior 6-year average: 113.7) While recruiting ranking averages of 86.8 don’t scream of great success, the Roadrunners’ recent five classes are on par with the top teams in Conference USA. UNLV (Last 2 recruiting ranks: 77, 67 — prior 10-year average: 103.3) Marcus Arroyo is just in his second year at UNLV, but his impact on the football program should start being felt in the next year or two. The last two classes are the best the Runnin’ Rebels have signed in at least a decade. We’ll see if this team can start turning the corner in 2021. Wisconsin (Last 3 recruiting ranks: 29, 25, 16 — prior 9-year average: 43.1) Wisconsin has had a reputation for producing a better product on the field than its talent level indicates. The latter part of that equation could be changing as Paul Chryst has scored landmark classes in three straight years by Badgers standard, topping out at No. 16 for 2021. Are the Badgers ready to join the CFP elite? (continued on next page) 9 POINT SPREAD WEEKLY Your TRUSTED SOURCE for EXCLUSIVE SPORTS BETTING NEWS, DATA & ANALYSIS TEAMS WHOSE RECRUITING RANKINGS ARE TRENDING IN A NEGATIVE DIRECTION Arizona (Last 8 years’ recruiting ranks: 31, 48, 48, 45, 61, 55, 62, 77) The Wildcats’ classes have dropped from the top 24% in the country to the top 59% in eight years. The shine of playing Arizona football has worn off for top recruits. New coach Jedd Fisch is going to have trouble finding success unless this pattern changes. Arizona State (2021 recruiting rank: 52, worst since 2011) The COVID-19 pandemic seems to have had an impact on the 2021 signings in Tempe. Perhaps not enough recruits got to do the in-person visit to see all the wonderful things ASU has to offer. It shouldn’t affect much in 2021, but it could in future seasons. Connecticut (Last 5 average recruiting ranks: 109.2; 2010-16: 86.3) Connecticut not only missed an entire football season last fall, but its recent recruiting classes suggest that this program may struggle for a while. Florida Atlantic (Last 3 recruiting ranks: 61, 73, 82) Lane Kiffin was a natural when it came to recruiting, and his efforts had a huge impact on FAU’s success in his tenure. It’s obvious that current coach Willie Taggart doesn’t match Kiffin in recruiting or on-field coaching. Florida State (Last 6 years’ recruiting ranks: 3, 6, 11, 18, 22, 23) After consistently signing top-5 classes in the early part of the decade, FSU has slipped in five straight years. The fact that the Seminoles haven’t won 10 or more games since 2016 is no accident. Hawaii (2010-18 average recruiting rank: 94.1, 2019-21: 121.3) Hawaii is another program that probably suffered from lack of in-person visits last year, as second-year coach Todd Graham’s most recent recruiting class ranked just 124th in the country. That followed a No. 125 in 2020. Recent classes suggest things will get worse before getting better. Houston (5 straight recruiting ranks of 69 or worse after 36 in 2016) Houston signed a program-best 36th-ranked recruiting class in 2016 after a 13-1 campaign. Since then it’s been 69, 73, 72, 82 and most recently 83. This won’t help coach Dana Holgorsen recapture that magic anytime soon. Marshall (2010-19 average recruiting rank: 69.4, last two: 95, 119) Despite a prolonged run of success, top recruits never seemed to want to turn to Marshall and former coach Doc Holliday. We saw the Thundering Herd on the underachieving list earlier. Two bad classes in a row could drop this team dramatically under new coach Charles Huff. Michigan State (Last 2 years’ recruiting ranks: 43, 44; prior 10 years, none higher than 37) East Lansing doesn’t seem to be the football destination it was under former coach Mark Dantonio, as this program has fallen behind almost every Big Ten East Division team in that regard in the last two years. The downward spiral could continue in 2021. Penn State (Last 4 years’ recruiting ranks: 6, 12, 15, 21) Most programs would love to have recruiting classes ranked 21st in the country, but for Penn State, the 2021 class was the third straight that didn’t meet the previous year’s standard. That trend is headed the wrong way. South Carolina (2021 recruiting rank: 79) Coming off one of the worst seasons in program history, new South Carolina coach Justin Beamer signed what has been ranked as the nation’s 79th