Addressing Tipping Points for a Precarious Future Addressing Tipping Points for a Precarious Future Edited by Tim O’Riordan and Tim Lenton Published for THE BRITISH ACADEMY by OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP © The British Academy 2013 Database right The British Academy (maker) First edition published in 2013 Some rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, for commercial purposes without the prior permission in writing of the British Academy, or as expressly permitted by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization. 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International, Padstow, Cornwall ISBN 978-0-726553-6 For our next generation who will live through what we create for them James, Zoë, Joseph, Esther, Edward and Sammy Contents List of figures and tables xi Foreword by Sir Crispin Tickell xiii Preface xv Acknowledgements xix Notes on contributors xxi PART 1 Tipping points and critical thresholds 1 1.1 Metaphors and systemic change 3 TIM O’RIORDAN, TIM LENTON, AND IAN CHRISTIE PART 2 Earth system tipping points 21 2.1 Tipping elements from a global perspective 23 TIM LENTON PART 3 The culture dimensions 47 3.1 Skittles 49 The story of the tipping point metaphor and its relation to new realities GILES FODEN Commentary 3.2 Aligning contrasting perspectives of tipping points 73 MATTHEW TAYLOR vii PART 4 Food security, biodiversity, and ecosystems degradation 77 4.1 Food security twists and turns 81 Why food systems need complex governance TIM LANG AND JOHN INGRAM 4.2 Human resilience in the face of biodiversity tipping points at local and regional scales 104 PATRICIA HOWARD 4.3 The Amazon in transition 127 The challenge of transforming the world’s largest tropical forest biome into a sustainable social-ecological system TOBY GARDNER PART 5 The spiritual dimension 149 5.1 Contemplative consciousness 151 LAURENCE FREEMAN Commentary 5.2 Faith and tipping points 165 DAVID ATKINSON PART 6 Politics, the markets, and business 169 6.1 Sustaining markets, establishing well-being, and promoting social virtue for transformational tipping points 173 TIM O’RIORDAN 6.2 Some socio-economic thoughts 188 PAUL EKINS 6.3 Leadership for sustainability 194 The search for tipping points SARA PARKIN Contents viii Commentaries 6.4 Leadership by business for coping with transformational tipping thresholds 213 AMANDA LONG 6.5 Private sector failure and risk management for tipping points 220 KEITH CLARKE 6.6 Creating a roadmap for sustainable, transformational change 223 JOHN ELKINGTON 6.7 Tipping points and ‘Too Difficult Boxes’ 229 CHARLES CLARKE 6.8 It tips both ways 233 THOMAS LINGARD 6.9 Perspective of a global retailer 237 MIKE BARRY PART 7 Communicating tipping points and resilience 241 7.1 Media coverage of tipping points 243 Searching for a balanced story JOE SMITH 7.2 Exploring adaptive governance for managing tipping points 258 EMILY BOYD Commentaries 7.3 Reflections of a journalist 277 PAUL BROWN 7.4 Making sense of the world 280 CAMILLA TOULMIN Contents ix 7.5 Endgame 285 JONATHAN SINCLAIR-WILSON 7.6 Beyond the linear 289 The role of visual thinking and visualization JOE RAVETZ PART 8 A precarious future 299 8.1 Into a precarious future 301 TIM O’RIORDAN AND TIM LENTON 8.2 Improving our chances of transition to sustainability 320 The role of values and the ethics of solidarity and sympathy ANDREW DOBSON Commentary 8.3 Turning the tides? 327 Parallel infrastructures and the revolt of the corporate elites IAN CHRISTIE Index 333 Contents x Figures and tables Figures 2.1 Map of potential policy-relevant tipping elements 26 2.2 The likelihood of tipping elements occurring 32 2.3 A ‘straw-man’ risk matrix for climate tipping points 33 2.4 A schematic representation of a system being forced past a bifurcation point 37 3.1 Metaphoric and metonymic axes 58 3.2 The relationship between metaphor and metonymy 60 4.1 The food system, its external influences, and outcomes: a flowchart 98 6.1 The approach to well-being in the context of evolving natural and social capital 181 6.2 Conventional capitalism 198 6.3 Sustainable capitalism 200 6.4 Capital stocks and benefit flows 203 6.5 The infrastructure of responsibility: how individuals relate, one to another, to create a strong society 208 6.6 A new model for collaborative engagement 215 6.7 A sample of the Knowledge Wall at the Breakthrough Capitalism Forum 224 7.1 Visual thinking to understand multiple cause–effects 292 7.2 Visual thinking to understand multi-scale complexity 293 7.3 Visualization in communicating tipping point situations 294 7.4 Visualization for synergistic tipping point responses 296 xi Tables 4.1 Strands in the food security discourse 84 4.2 Examples of how food-chain activities affect key environmental variables 97 4.3 Examples of ‘biodiversity’ tipping points in terrestrial ecosystems 110 Figures and tables xii Foreword SIR CRISPIN TICKELL ‘Tipping points’ mean different things to different people. Most of them with their implications are well explored in this book. For me a tipping point is when an accumulation of small or even big changes suddenly causes a critical change. Usually we cannot identify a tipping point until we have passed it. One of the best demonstrations of tipping points is in the behaviour of ecosystems. Within the infinite complexity of living systems in which different organisms depend on each other, one break in the chain or tipping point can bring rapid change to the others linked within it. For some this means disaster; for others it means rapid, perhaps favourable, change within a new chain. This is part of the phenomenon of life. We can see this in the history of the human animal. Tribes, cities, and societies can rapidly crash or flourish. As ever, the tipping point could not have been foreseen. Usually it was a combination of unusual circumstances. Changes in patterns of rainfall came together with social and economic difficulties to bring about the collapse of classic Maya society. The Black Death coincided with the beginnings of the Little Ice Age to transform mediaeval society. A new merchant elite was able to tip over the mon- archies of King Charles I and later King James II, and thereby create the circumstances of the industrial revolution in the following century. We are certainly in turbulent times today. Our current epoch has been labelled ‘the Anthropocene’ by many geologists: it marks the period since the industrial revolution in which the human species has vastly increased its numbers; exploited the natural, often irreplaceable resources of the Earth; upset longstanding ecosystems, thereby destroying countless other species; and changed the chemistry of the land, sea, and air of the Earth in ways we have yet to understand. For example, we can observe the current xiii destabilization of climate with prospects for global warming, but can only guess at the consequences for future distribution of water and new means for producing the energy which drives our society. Whereas in the past the rise and fall of civilizations was something regional and distinct, we are now more interconnected than ever before, and as the present economic crisis demonstrates, what happens in one place immediately affects what happens in others. So what, if anything, can we do about all this? Can we discern future tipping points? Which ways could they tip us? It is fair to say that the conventional wisdom, which has led us to where we are, is under increasing challenge. Some politicians may still call for more respect for market forces, and argue about the effects of inflation or deflation, the supply of money, and the need for growth, however defined. But others are painfully aware of the wider issues: concern for the environment in all its aspects, our unhealthy dependence on certain technologies, including being locked into old ones, and human prospects in general. Are we measuring the right things in the right way, in particular our wealth, health, and happiness? Are our brains changing so that we see things in pictures rather than think in words? Can we still see the wood for the trees? Does globalization of society imply loss of local identity, or – worse – a return to nationalisms and local rivalries, with lethal struggles over resources? No one knows the answers. But it is clearer than ever that we need to work globally, and above all identify the common interest in tackling the problems of the Anthropocene. This may require an assembly of regional interests, so-called ‘pluralities’, within a global framework, which reflect the current changes in the balance of power. Change usually comes about for three main reasons: leadership from those who effectively run our society; pressure from ordinary people through the means at their disposal; and occasionally from what I call ‘benign catastrophes’, when something goes visibly and attributably wrong and thereby illustrates the need for action. These will be the vital tipping points. Above all we need to think differently. Only then will we be able to act differently. Foreword xiv Preface This book originates from a 2011 conference generously funded by the British Academy and the Global Environmental Change Committee of the Royal Society. The aims of the conference were to address and answer three questions: 1. Are we designing our governing institutions for sufficiently flexible, yet equitable, adaptation and resilience in the face of possibly unknow- able, but potentially catastrophic, events or combinations of events in both Earth systems and social systems? 2. Are we creating, year by year, a set of governing arrangements that are brittle, fragmented, and increasingly vulnerable, in the face of poten- tially convulsive change? 3. Is it possible, creatively and purposefully, to shape our governing ways, our cultural mores, our economic approaches, and our commit- ments to long-term social justice, to prepare society for transforma- tional tipping points in a benign and caring manner in sufficient time? The conference was preceded by a scene-setting workshop held in the British Academy in January 2011. This greatly clarified the issues, and enabled the participants to feel a common purpose. It encouraged authors to draft their initial contributions, and to sense the connections between their arguments. It set the scene for the complete agenda for the subsequent April conference held in the Kavli Centre and managed by the Royal Society. The great value of the Kavli conference was to bring together a wide range of scientists, social scientists, and humanities specialists to combine their experiences and expertise for understanding the many interpretations of tipping points. These facets included: • the physical and dynamical properties of Earth system processes; • the scientific understanding of the early warnings of reduced resilience; • the social sciences of economics and governing which suggest how the messy management of human affairs may reach brittle stress points; xv • the liberating interaction of the two sets of stress-related physical and social processes through the media of the arts and narrative; • the moral, spiritual and cultural dimensions of the scope for coping with abrupt change. One of the very rich aspects of the conference was the ways in which the creative minds of the historian, theologian, and novelist can deal with uncertain but possibly sudden shifts in these systems – the generation of convulsive combinations of developments. This is the skill of those who can craft deep metaphors and the ‘storyline’ – lessons from what has happened before, and about the strength of moral positioning over how to adapt fairly and securely. The conference also received ideas and commentary from the worlds of business, of media and communication, of diplomacy, and of governing in the broadest sense. These perspectives added greatly to the richness of the discussions and of the nuances of analysing both the contours of tipping points and the answers to the questions of whether we are creating inappropriate governance arrangements. Indeed, it is very likely we are not prepared culturally or politically for adaptation to combinations of tipping points, which could indeed be generated within a few decades. We seem to be creating conditions of maladaptation and dangerous ‘lock-in’. One outcome is that, unless the most successful experiences of adaptive learning spontaneously and imaginatively arising from many parts of the planet are fully reported and understood, humanity may not be able to adapt with sufficient social justice to enable future societies to cope fairly and tolerably with disruptive change. This book is primarily designed to place tipping points in their scientific, economic, governmental, creative, and spiritual contexts. Its contributions cover the various interpretations and metaphors of tipping points, the scope for anticipating their onset, and the capacity both for resilience in the face of their impending arrival and for better ways of communicating and preparing societies, economies, and governments for accommodating to them and hence to turn them into responses which buffer and better human well-being. Above all, the possibility of preparing society and its governing institutions for creative and benign ‘tips’ provides a unifying theme for the book. The big lessons from the conference are these: that we can assess tipping points and critical thresholds on many dimensions; that we can begin to see the early warnings of their appearance; and that we do have time still to attend to the conditions which answer Question 3. But at best, we only Preface xvi have this decade to begin in earnest this comprehensive adjustment. This volume is therefore very timely. The widespread dismay over the prevari- cation and seeming inability of world heads of state (many of whom did not even attend) to address the plight of all peoples on this disrupted planet at the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (‘Rio+20’, held in Rio de Janeiro in June 2012) is leading many to the dangerous conclusion that political leadership is unavailable. The ‘wicked problems’ of climate disruption and unsustainable use of ecosystems simply defeat conventional politics, whether of the democratic or autocratic worlds, dependent as both are on evidently unsustainable patterns of growth and exploitation of resources. Despite some recognition for a transition to a so-called ‘green’ economy, though not a sustainable one, there is every sign that the very characteristics of markets, politics, and inequalities which have led to the current global recession and social malaise are being blindly pursued, apparently because there is neither vision nor the willingness to change course. At an Oxford University conference in July 2012 on resource security and sustainability, David Miliband MP, a former Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in the UK, argued that we must hold fast to faith in democracy as the best available political model for achieving the transition to sustainability. But he was also driven to admit that among the policymaking elites of the West there was still far too little will-power, passion, or conviction behind sustainable development. Too many politicians, he concluded, in their hearts and heads do not yet accept the diagnosis of unsustainability and the approach of tipping points, still less wish to act on it. The book is divided into eight Parts, which consist of ‘chapters’ and ‘commentaries’, numbered sequentially. The fourteen main chapters were all presented at one or other of the conference sessions, where they were discussed in detail. The other contributions are designed as short com- mentaries. For the most part these were commissioned from people who were not at the conference sessions. The text is edited to create cohesion between the contributions so that the various nuances of science, social science, and humanity perspectives are enabled to merge. The intended readership is informed policymakers, policy analysts, researchers, and those in the general public who seek to understand what possible future outcomes they and their offspring may face before this current century passes its halfway stage. The text is also shaped to offer a combination of distress at what may happen if the warnings are not heeded, and hope that there is time to change course, admittedly in an increasingly difficult Preface xvii manner if conscious delay is continued, and that the ultimate prize is worth sacrificing and fighting for. Humanity has triumphed over adversity, though not always have earlier civilizations succeeded. What is special now is that the whole of humanity faces the same awkward dilemmas, not just the overambitious few. Having edited this book we are not confident that there is a happy outcome, as the disruptive journey has not yet been sufficiently altered to offer confidence that real learning is taking place. Readers are encouraged to make up their own minds when reading the pages that follow. Tim O’Riordan and Tim Lenton September 2012 Preface xviii Acknowledgements We are especially grateful to the British Academy and to the Royal Society Global Environmental Change Committee for having the faith in the whole enterprise. We have been supported throughout by Fellows of both learned Academies as well as by their very competent administrators. About the cover art: still image from “Critical Transitions” by Tone Bjordam Norwegian artist Tone Kristin Bjordam works with video, animation films, photography, painting, drawing and installation. Bjordam has for many years been working on projects visualizing the movement and progression of liquid color in fluids and unfolding organic forms in motion. She stages controlled, yet playful experiments and creates imaginary landscapes. The art video “Critical Transitions” was made in 2012, inspired by discussions with scientist Marten Scheffer who studies the nature of change in complex systems. Climate, forests, coral reefs, financial markets and even our minds occasionally reach a tipping point where they go through a radical transformation. Foreseeing such critical transitions or even noticing that they are unfolding is challenging as they are embedded in the omnipresent permanent flow of change. Dazzled by myriads of such minimal motions, how can we see that they sometimes erupt into transforming change? Emerged in chaotic and turbulent transformation how can we see where we are going? Science seeks universal early warning signals for critical transitions, but often we may only realize the world is not the same anymore in the hindsight. For more information about this project: www.tonebjordam.com xix