India's Resilience in the Age of Geopolitical Turbulence The opening months of 2026 have crystallized a stark reality for global investors: geopolitics now dominates market dynamics. From escalating tariff threats to intensifying regional conflicts, the international landscape bristles with volatility that reverberates through traditional and digital asset classes alike. INVESTMENT THESIS The Strategic Question of Our Time Amid unprecedented global uncertainty, one critical question confronts sophisticated investors: where can capital find both safety and meaningful growth potential? The answer lies in India— an economy that isn't merely surviving global headwinds but actively thriving. This presentation builds the analytical case for why India's structural resilience positions it as a compelling safe-haven opportunity in turbulent markets. The Geopolitical Tinderbox: Repricing Risk Institutional investors have fundamentally recalibrated their risk frameworks. What were once peripheral concerns have migrated to the core of portfolio construction —particularly since the Ukraine conflict demonstrated how swiftly geopolitical events can cascade through markets. Institutional Response Major asset managers now maintain dedicated geopolitical analysis teams—a transformation from optional enhancement to operational necessity. Risk Premium Expansion Markets are aggressively pricing political uncertainty, creating valuation dislocations across emerging markets. Interconnected Crises The simultaneous nature of global flashpoints amplifies systemic risk beyond historical precedent. Three Vectors of Global Instability 1 Tariff Warfare Unpredictable US trade policy— including threats of 50% tariffs on select Indian exports and geopolitical posturing over Greenland—creates profound uncertainty for export-dependent economies and supply chains. 2 Regional Conflicts Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Ukraine and military interventions in Venezuela contribute to elevated geo-economic risk premiums and policy paralysis across major economies. 3 Market Volatility This toxic mix triggers capital flight from emerging markets, currency instability, and a rush to traditional safe-haven assets. Gold reached record highs in early 2026 as institutional allocations shifted defensively. Against this backdrop of interconnected crises, India's stability isn't coincidental—it reflects deliberate policy choices and structural economic strength. India's Domestic Engine: Built-In Shock Absorbers While exposed to global crosscurrents, India's economy operates on fundamentally different mechanics than export- dependent peers. Its growth trajectory is powered by robust domestic consumption and supported by countercyclical policy frameworks. This internal orientation provides natural insulation against external volatility—a structural advantage that becomes increasingly valuable as geopolitical risk premiums expand. Why This Matters Domestic-driven growth means India can maintain momentum even when global trade contracts—a critical differentiator in today's environment. Four Pillars of India's Economic Resilience 01 Unparalleled Growth Momentum India is projected to remain the world's fastest-growing major economy. First-half FY 2025-26 GDP growth reached 8.0%, with RBI, Standard Chartered, and CRISIL all revising full-year forecasts upward. This isn't cyclical—it reflects broad-based sectoral expansion. 02 Coordinated Policy Support Fiscal: Budget 2025 delivered targeted income tax cuts and GST reforms, boosting disposable income and driving an 8% surge in private consumption. Monetary: The RBI deployed 125 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, stimulating credit growth and investment activity. 03 Macroeconomic Buffers Inflation Control: CPI moderated to 2.3% in 2025—well below the RBI's target—creating policy flexibility. External Position: Forex reserves stand at $703 billion with current account deficit projected at a manageable 1% of GDP. Fiscal Discipline: FY26 deficit target of 4.4% maintains credibility with bond markets. 04 Structural Reforms Bearing Fruit Long-pending labor codes are now operational, streamlining employment regulations and improving ease of doing business. Combined with elevated public capex, these reforms lay the foundation for sustained productivity-driven growth. Risk Factors: Maintaining Analytical Discipline While India's fundamentals provide substantial downside protection, prudent analysis demands acknowledgment of near-term vulnerabilities that could test the investment thesis. Currency Depreciation Risk Rupee weakness could import inflation and erode macroeconomic stability, particularly if capital outflows accelerate. Central bank intervention capacity, while substantial, isn't unlimited. Export Sector Vulnerability Potential slowdowns in the US and EU—which absorb the majority of India's goods exports—pose headwinds. The upcoming Union Budget 2026 will be critical in addressing these risks through targeted export support and infrastructure investment to "crowd in" private capital. Investment Conclusion: A Rare Safe Haven 8.0% GDP Growth H1 FY 2025-26 $703B Forex Reserves External buffer 2.3% CPI Inflation Below target The Strategic Perspective For 2026 and beyond, global markets face a fundamental geopolitical recalibration. India's economic narrative, however, is distinctly insulated—anchored by vigorous domestic demand, transformative reforms, and credible policy institutions. India is no longer simply another emerging market buffeted by external winds. It has evolved into an internally-driven growth engine—a comparative safe haven and a structural driver of global economic expansion for the decade ahead.