Notable Calls Research The purpose of this write up is to pin down what a fair valuation might be for FuboTV. After reading the research from Mr. Greenfield, who is obviously trying to fuel a panic sell-off type of move in a stock that has run up quite a bit, it makes sense to try to understand if his valuation claims hold any water. The only available comparable valuation to FUBO I can find is Hulu. Though It is an imperfect comparison for two reasons: 1 – Hulu + Live TV is not a pure-play Live TV streaming company. It also operates a larger on-demand aspect of their business which drives around $10 - $12 ARPU. Their Live TV segment drivers closer to $70 ARPU, and the two seem to contribute somewhat evenly to top line revenue. Growth is certainly being driven by their Live TV segment. 2 – Hulu is a private company, and there is only one transaction in recent history we can look at. In May of 2019, Hulu bought back 9.5% of its own company from AT&T at a $15 Billion valuation. Let’s dig into what this could mean for FUBO… Hulu bought back a 9.5% stake of its own company from AT&T in May of 2019 at a $15 Billion valuation. This was a private transaction, and it’s safe to say that Hulu probably negotiated a VERy good deal for themselves as they were buying shares back in their OWN company. In to appropriately compare Hulu’s valuation to FUBOs, we need to guess what Hulu’s valuation would be at that time if it were a publicly traded company. I’m going to be conservative here and assume that if Hulu was a publicly traded company in Mid-2019 it’s valuation would be 2.5x the $15 Billion valuation that was agreed to in the private transaction. Under this assumption, if Hulu were a publicly traded company, at the time of that transaction public markets would value this company at $37.5 Billion. In the end of 2019, Hulu posted $700 Million in Ad Revenue and $1.3 Billion in Subscription revenue – for a grand total of $2 Billion. The transaction above was done 6 months prior to the year ending 2019, so a $37.5 Billion valuation would imply a 6-month forward revenue multiple of roughly 18.75 times sales. FuboTV has guided 2021 revenue to be $450 Million, and they will likely be at or above that run-rate by Q3 2020 as that is their strongest quarter. An 18.75x valuation on next years revenue would value FUBO right at $8.44 Billion. With Roughly 150 Million shares fully diluted, this implies a price of $56 / share. Now lets take some other factors into consideration, like growth rate: ANNUAL SUBSCRIBER GROWTH Hulu + Live TV Annual Subscriber Growth: 28% 3.2 Million in Q4 2019 compared to 4.1 Million in Q4 2020 FuboTV Annual Subscriber Growth: 67% FuboTV had 295,000 paying subscribers in Q3 2019, and 455,000 paying subscribers in Q3 2020 (FuboTV has not announced 4th Quarter numbers yet, so we will look at Q3 2019 and Q3 2020 numbers) ANNUAL REVENUE GROWTH Hulu + Live TV Annual Revenue Growth: 35% $2 BLN in 2019 Compared to 2.7 Billion in 2020 FuboTV Annual Revenue Growth: 65% $147 Million in 2019 Compared to 245 Million in 2020 FINAL TAKE FUBO is growing at a faster clip than Hulu, and has the prospect of sports-betting on the horizon. But even without these 2 things factored in, based on Hulu’s valuation one could argue that FUBO should trade at $56/share. We don’t know what Hulu would trade it if it were a public company, but it’s safe to say it would be substantially higher than if it were private. Maybe faster growth plus the prospect of sports-betting adds another $4? That brings FUBO to $60 / share. Sources: Hulu Transaction with AT&T - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/14/comcast-has-agreed-to-sell-its-stake- in-hulu-in-5- years.html#:~:text=Hulu%20bought%20back%20a%209.5,the%20company%20at%20%2415%20billion. Hulu Metrics: https://www.fiercevideo.com/operators/deeper-dive-how-youtube-tv-hulu-live-tv-and-others-stack-up- after-q1#:~:text=Hulu%20%2B%20Live%20TV%20is%20still,up%2065%25%20year%20over%20year. https://www.cordcuttersnews.com/hulu-with-live-reaches-4-1-million-subscribers-holding-its-title-as- top-live-tv-streaming-service/ Fubo Metrics: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=1484769&owner=exclude https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200915006220/en/fuboTV-Reports-Strong-Momentum- Raises-Q3-Subscriber- Guidance#:~:text=2020%20revenue%20guidance%3A%20%24220%2D231,%25%20year%2Dover%2Dyea r.
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