To: Freedom Virginia From: Betsy App, Change Research Date: March 4, 2022 Re: Virginia Economic Security Poll Key Findings A poll from Change Research of 1,057 registered voters in Virginia from February 24-28, 20221 shows: ● In general, Virginians are extraordinarily concerned about the economy and what it means for their own financial security. ● Many say that their expenses are rising at a faster rate than their income. More than two-thirds (68%) say that their personal financial situation is the same or worse than it was two years ago, while just 29% say their situation is better and 3% are not sure. ● Inflation is at the root of Virginians’ worries. An overwhelming majority (83%) of respondents say that inflation and recent cost increases have impacted their day-to-day life. Lower-income households have felt this the most, but more than two-thirds (70%) of Virginians with household incomes of $100,000 or more say they have been impacted by inflation and rising costs. ● Those with annual incomes below $50,000 worry about paying for groceries and other essentials in the here and now (55% selected this as a concern), while those with annual incomes above $100,000 are worried about retirement (39% selected this as a concern). 35% of respondents across all income levels say that paying for healthcare services and health insurance is a top worry. ● Voters support policies that provide financial relief, including lowering the cost of prescription medicines (84% support, 5% oppose), and lowering electric bills (77% support, 7% oppose). ● In the waning days of the legislative session, voters express support for increasing state tax refunds for lower-income Virginians (65% support, 17% oppose), and expanding K-12 education funding (65% support, 23% oppose). Big Picture Opinions Virginia voters are divided when it comes to the direction of the commonwealth Virginia’s economy. A plurality (35%) says that Virginia’s economy is worse than it was two years ago. 1 Using its Dynamic Online Sampling Engine to obtain a sample reflective of the population of registered voters in Virginia, Change Research polled 1,057 people statewide from February 24-28, 2022. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is 3%. Post-stratification weighting was performed on age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, zip code, and 2020 presidential vote. Weighting parameters were based on voter file data. Employment Among survey respondents, 49% reported that they are employed full-time, 7% employed part-time, and 4% unemployed and looking for work. 30% of respondents are retired. Lower-income respondents say that a good job is one that pays a fair wage and has benefits like health insurance. Higher-income respondents agree that a good job compensates well and provides good benefits. They also say that a good job allows for flexible schedules and work-life balance. A majority (58%) of Virginians say there are some or a lot of good jobs available in their community, but this perception varies by income level. Only 42% of those respondents with an annual household income below $50,000 say there are some or a lot of good jobs available, while 75% with incomes of $100,000 or more say there are some or a lot of good jobs available. Three-quarters (74%) of working Virginians say they are somewhat or very satisfied with their job, and just 26% say they are somewhat or very dissatisfied. Again, this varies by income level, with higher rates of job satisfaction among higher-income respondents. Personal Finances Many Virginians feel like their personal finances are stagnant or getting worse; more than two-thirds (68%) say that their personal financial situation is the same or worse than it was two years ago, while just 29% say their situation is better and 3% are not sure. Inflation is at the core of Virginians’ worries about money. Many say they are making more money than they did two years ago, but that their expenses are increasing faster than their income. Virginians across the income spectrum report feeling the impacts of inflation and cost increases; 83% of respondents say they have felt some or major impacts on their day-to-day life. More than two-thirds (70%) of higher-income Virginians say they are impacted by inflation and rising costs. While most respondents report feeling the impacts of inflation, the things they worry about financially vary by household income, with a majority of respondents with annual incomes below $50,000 saying that they worry about paying for groceries and other essentials. The most frequently cited concern among those with annual incomes above $100,000 is saving for retirement (39% selected this as a concern). Nearly a third (30% to 37%) of respondents across all income levels say that paying for healthcare services and health insurance is a top worry. Lower-income Virginians are most worried about the things they have to pay for today (food, gas, utilities), but when asked about hopes for their personal financial situation, people of all incomes look toward the future with retirement at the forefront of everyone’s thoughts. Those with lower incomes want to be able to retire someday; those with higher incomes want to be able to retire earlier; those who are near retirement or already retired want to be able to live comfortably. These are reasonable aspirations that all Virginians should be able to achieve, like, “[I hope] that I would be able to retire at the normal age of retirement. Be able to pay my bills on time and or pay off my mortgage before I retire, and save enough to put my children through college.” But many express concern that their modest goals are unattainable. Favorability Voters express deeply partisan attitudes toward the Democratic and Republican Parties, and toward Democrats and Republicans in Virginia’s General Assembly. Democratic voters are united in their dislike for Republicans in the General Assembly (net favorability -80), and Republican voters are united in their dislike for Democrats in the General Assembly (net favorability -89). Across the partisan spectrum, voters are in agreement in their dislike for corporations, with net negative favorability ratings among Democratic voters (net -43), Independents (net -38), and Republican voters (net -5) alike. Policy Solutions Virginia voters support policies that would 1) provide some immediate relief for their personal finances, 2). reduce stresses on working Virginians, and 3) promote K-12 education funding. While these policies would not eliminate the deep concerns Virginians have about their economic security, they would help ease the burden and make life just a little easier as Virginians get back on their feet in the wake of the pandemic. In the waning days of the legislative session, Virginia lawmakers should give careful consideration to two policies in particular that have wide support among voters. 65% of registered voters in Virginia support increasing state tax refunds for lower-income Virginians facing the impact of the pandemic and inflation, while only 17% oppose. Among Independent voters, 64% support and only 13% oppose this policy. Similarly, 65% of registered voters support prioritizing expanding funding for K-12 schools, teachers, and school construction instead of tax cuts, and just 23% oppose. Among Independent voters, 57% support expanding K-12 education funding and 22% oppose. APPENDIX: DEMOGRAPHICS Are you currently registered to vote in Virginia? 100% Yes Are you: 45% Male 53 Female 2 Nonbinary In what year were you born? 23% 18 to 34 24 35 to 49 28 50 to 64 26 65 or older In what ZIP code do you currently live? 36% Northern Virginia 26 Central Virginia/Richmond 22 Tidewater/Hampton Roads/Eastern Shore 10 Shenandoah 6 Southwest/Blue Ridge What is your race? 73% White / Caucasian 14 Black or African American 6 Hispanic or Latino/a 1 American Indian or Alaska Native 1 Asian / Pacific Islander 5 Other What is the highest level of education you have completed? 12% High school diploma or less 30 Some college, but no degree 12 Associate's degree, or two-year college degree 26 Bachelor's degree, or four-year college degree 21 Graduate degree Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a: 34% Strong Democrat 10 Weak Democrat 4 Ind Democrats 6 Independents 5 Ind Republicans 10 Weak Republican 31 Strong Republican How did you vote in the 2020 election for President, or for some reason were you unable to vote? 52% Joe Biden, the Democrat 42 Donald Trump, the Republican 3 Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian 1 Not registered/Too young/Ineligible 2 Did not vote How did you vote in the 2021 election for governor of Virginia, or for some reason were you unable to vote? 48% Terry McAuliffe, the Democrat 48 Glenn Youngkin, the Republican 1 Princess Blanding, the Libertarian 1 Not registered/Too young/Ineligible 3 Did not vote Do you have children under the age of 18 living at home? 26% Yes 74 No Are you, or is anyone in your household, a member of a labor union? Select all that apply. 4% Yes, I am currently a union member 6 Yes, I am a former union member 3 Yes, someone in my household is currently a union member 3 Yes, someone in my household is a former union member 84 No, I am not, nor is anyone in my household For statistical purposes, which of the following best describes your household total yearly income before taxes? 4% Under $10,000 4 $10,000-$19,999 7 $20,000-$29,999 6 $30,000-$39,999 10 $40,000-$49,999 8 $50,000-$59,999 6 $60,000-$69,999 6 $70,000-$79,999 4 $80,000-$89,999 7 $90,000-$99,999 15 $100,000-$150,000 11 Over $150,000 13 Prefer not to answer APPENDIX: METHODOLOGY Change Research surveyed 1,057 registered voters in Virginia from February 24-28. We used the following sources to recruit respondents: ● targeted advertisements on Facebook ● text messages sent, via the Switchboard platform, to cell phone numbers listed on the voter file for individuals who qualified for the survey’s sample universe, based on their voter file data Regardless of which of these sources a respondent came from, they were directed to a survey hosted on Surveymonkey’s website. Ads placed on social media targeted all adults living in Virginia. Those who indicated that they were not registered to vote in Virginia were terminated. As the survey fielded, Change Research used dynamic online sampling: adjusting ad budgets, lowering budgets for ads targeting groups that were overrepresented and raising budgets for ads targeting groups that were underrepresented, so that the final sample was roughly representative of the population of registered voters across different groups. The survey was conducted in English. The survey was conducted on behalf of Freedom Virginia and conducted online by Change Research. Post-stratification was performed on age, sex, education, race/ethnicity, geographic region, and 2020 presidential vote. Weighting parameters were based on the demographic composition of all registered voters, obtained from the voter file. That is, if a given age bracket represented x% of all registered voters on the voter file, then that same group would be weighted to x% in this survey. 2020 presidential results were based on numbers released by the Virginia Department Of Elections. The modeled margin of error* for this survey is 3%, which uses effective sample sizes** that adjust for the design effect of weighting. * We adopt The Pew Research Center's convention for the term "modeled margin of error"(1) (mMOE) to indicate that our surveys are not simple random samples in the pure sense, similar to any survey that has either non-response bias or for which the general population was not invited at random. A common, if imperfect, convention for reporting survey results is to use a single, survey-level mMOE based on a normal approximation. This is a poor approximation for proportion estimates close to 0 or 1. However, it is a useful communication tool in many settings and is reasonable in places where the proportion of interest is close to 50%. We report this normal approximation for our surveys assuming a proportion estimate of 50%. ** The effective sample size adjusts for the weighting applied to respondents, and is calculated using Kish's approximation (2). (1) https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2018/01/26/for-weighting-online-opt-in-samples-what-matters-most/ (2) Kish, Leslie. Survey Sampling, 1965. For more information, contact Betsy App at betsy@changeresearch.com. REPORTED QUESTIONS Which of the following describes your employment status? Select all that apply. ● Employed full-time ● Employed part-time ● Retired ● Unemployed, looking for work ● Not able to work ● Student ● Homemaker ● Something else In your opinion, what are the top two or three characteristics of a good job? [OPEN-ENDED] How is the job situation in your community? Are there: ● A lot of good jobs available ● Some good jobs available ● Not many good jobs available ● No good jobs available ● Not sure Many people these days are rethinking their jobs, work conditions, time spent with loved ones, and long-term goals. What about you? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your job or the work you do? ● Very satisfied ● Somewhat satisfied ● Somewhat dissatisfied ● Very dissatisfied ● Not sure Do you think _______ is/are going in the right direction or is it/are they off on the wrong track? [RANDOMIZE] [Right direction | Somewhere in the middle | Wrong track | Not sure] ● The United States ● Virginia ● The United States economy ● Virginia’s economy ● Your personal finances Would you say that your personal financial situation is: ● Better than it was two years ago ● Worse than it was two years ago ● About the same as it was two years ago ● Not sure How much have inflation and increased costs impacted your day-to-day life recently? [ROTATE] ● Major impact ● Some impact ● Not much impact ● No impact at all ● Not sure When it comes to your personal finances, what would you say worries you the most? [OPEN-ENDED] Below is a list of things that are concerning to some people. Which do you worry about most in your own life? Select up to THREE [RANDOMIZE] ● Paying for healthcare services and health insurance ● Paying for prescription medications ● Paying my utility bills ● Paying for gas ● Paying for groceries and other essentials ● Paying for childcare ● Paying my rent or mortgage ● Saving for college or paying off student loans ● Finding or keeping a decent job that pays me fairly ● Taking time off from my job if I get sick ● Taking time off from my job if a loved one gets sick ● Paying my income taxes ● Saving for retirement ● Saving for a vacation ● Income inequality What are your hopes for your personal financial situation? [OPEN-ENDED] How favorable are your feelings about each of the following public figures and groups? [RANDOMIZE] [Very favorable | Somewhat favorable | Neutral | Somewhat unfavorable | Very unfavorable | Never heard of them] ● The Democratic Party ● The Republican Party ● Democrats in the Virginia General Assembly ● Republicans in the Virginia General Assembly ● Labor Unions ● Corporations Below is a list of policies lawmakers in Virginia are considering. For each one, please indicate whether you support or oppose that policy. [RANDOMIZE] [Strongly support | Somewhat support | Neutral | Somewhat oppose | Strongly oppose | Not sure] ● Lower the cost of prescription medicines by allowing Virginia to set a limit on costs to consumers for certain expensive medicines ● Lower electric bills by directing state utility regulators to prioritize lower costs to consumers ● Prioritize expanding funding for K-12 schools, teachers, and school construction instead of tax cuts ● Expand access to paid sick days for all Virginia workers, ensuring that every Virginian is able to take paid time off when they are sick or to care for an immediate relative who is sick ● Increase state tax refunds for lower-income Virginians facing the impact of the pandemic and inflation ● Provide support to working parents by lowering the cost of childcare and making quality child care more accessible
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