$ 1/14/2021 Suppose 0% prevalence of COVID-19 Oregon tests at least 15,000 per day on average. [1] That's about 210,000 tests every two weeks. The population of Oregon is about 4.218 million. The threshold for 'Extreme' COVID danger is .2% positive tests prevalence per 100,000 residents, taken over two weeks. [2] Lower bound on the CDC PCR test specificity/NPA 95% CI is 96.4% [3] Assuming the bad, but somewhat likely scenario that test specificity is 96.4%, this would result in 3.6% false positives for the hypothetical uninfected population. Gross false positives for the state would then be 7,560 7,560 / 4.218 million = .00179 = .18% This brings us 90% of the way to the 'extreme risk' designation from OHA While some approximations have been made, this is enough to get an idea of the potential problem. Even if no one had COVID, it is not unlikely that Oregon would be considered 'High Risk' by the OHA guidelines. As COVID rises in prevalence, this percent positive per 100,000 would only increase. Sources: [1] John Hopkins: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/oregon [2] Office of the Governor: https://coronavirus.oregon.gov/Pages/living-with-covid-19.aspx#currentrisklevelbycountymap [3] FDA: https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download
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