[Part 1] SMJHL Teams vs The Major Juniors I decided to do this because I just love random google searches and a good excel spreadsheet. So my idea is to compare the 10 SMJHL teams to an actual hockey team in the same area, in order to narrow down the selection ( and be able to do this multiple times for that sweet $$$) I decided to do them based on where my player Adam Scianna is currently in his career. So being a rookie looking forward the the big SHL draft, the teams i will be comparing to are teams in the leagues that the NHL typically drafts from. And because there aren't any non-North American Teams the league I limited it to are as follows: WHL, OHL, QMJHL, USHL, NAHL, and Division 1 NCAA. A Lot of the teams were easy to find a match as they had a team in the same city, but others (Anaheim and Carolina) were surprisingly hard to find a team close to their cities. So the teams I am comparing to for each SMJHL team are as follows, and if for some reason you feel that there is a better team i should have used let me know: Anaheim Outlaws vs Arizona State Sun Devils of the NCAA Anchorage Armada vs Kenai River Brown Bears of the NAHL Carolina Kraken vs University of Alabama Huntsville Chargers of the NCAA Colorado Raptors vs University of Denver Pioneers of the NCAA Detroit Falcons vs Windsor Spitfires of the OHL *insert joke about the Red Wings being a Major Junior Team* Halifax Raiders vs Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL Kelowna Knights vs Kelowna Rockets of the WHL Lethbridge Lions vs Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL St. Louis Scarecrows vs Springfield Jr. Blues of the NAHL Vancouver Wailers vs Vancouver Giants of the WHL And below are the distances between the Arena’s both teams play at Anaheim Outlaws - The Outlaw Saloon* --------> Arizona State Sun Devils - Oceanside Ice Arena = 337 Miles Anchorage Armada - Sullivan Center --------> Kenai River Brown Bears - Soldotna Regional Sports Complex = 147 Miles Carolina Kraken - Spectrum Center --------> University of Alabama Huntsville Chargers - Von Braun Center = 412 Miles Colorado Raptors - InGEN Arena* --------> University of Denver Pioneers - Magness Arena = 7 Miles Detroit Falcons - Jet Blue Airways Arena* --------> Windsor Spitfires - WFCU Centre = 11 Miles Halifax Raiders - The Scotiabank Center --------> Halifax Mooseheads - The Scotiabank Center = 0 Miles Kelowna Knights - Prospera Place --------> Kelowna Rockets - Prospera Place = 0 Miles Lethbridge Lions - ENMAX Centre --------> Lethbridge Hurricanes - ENMAX Centre = 0 Miles St. Louis Scarecrows - Enterprise Center --------> Springfield Jr. Blues Nelson Center Ice Rink = 100 Miles Vancouver Whalers - Pacific Coliseum --------> Vancouver Giants - Langley Events Centre = 23 Miles *Both Google and I don't believe that these arenas actually exist so for distance is used the following arena’s Anaheim - Honda Center, Colorado - Pepsi Center, Detroit - Little Caesars Arena Now for the meat and potatoes of this. For each matchup I looked at the last 5 years (for the real teams current season i used their records as of some time around New Years) and took note of their record and what place they finished in their league. ( For Arizona State as they are the only team in the “D-1 Independent” League and it would be pointless yo say they won each year, I used the data as if they player in the Western Collegiate Hockey Association and scaled their points to match the others games played) The two stats i am using to compare the two teams is the difference in regular season standings and the difference in win percentage. For both stats, a positive number means the SMJHL team came out ahead of the Junior team. For the difference in regular season standings the number shown is how much higher or lower the SMJHL team finished than the Major Junior team, normalized to a 10 team league, this doesn’t factor in the team's record or points scored as every league has different point structures. For example looking at the first listing between the Anaheim Outlaws and Arizona State, with Anaheim finishing 8th/10 teams and Arizona currently being in 3rd/11, Anaheim would have been 5.27 positions behind Arizona in a 10 team league. The difference in Win percentage is pretty straight forward, and is the percentage of wins the SMJHL team had minus the percentage of wins the Major Junior team had. Looking at the same example as before, with a record of 23-25-2 Anaheim won 46% of their game, and at 10-6-2 Arizona state won 55.6% of their games. 46% - 55.56% = -9.56% So Anaheim won 9.56% less of their games than Arizona. Anaheim Outlaws Arizona State Sun Devils S51 23-25-2 8th/10 19/20 10-6-2 3rd/11 -5.27 -9.56% S50 26-20-4 4th/10 18/19 21-13-1 4th/11 -0.36 -8.00% S49 22-23-5 9th/10 17/18 8-21-5 10th/11 0.09 20.47% S48 30-17-3 2th/10 16/17 10-19-3 10th/11 7.09 28.75% S47 25-18-7 5th/10 15/16 5-22-2 10th/11 4.09 32.76% Average 1.13 12.88% First we have the Anaheim Outlaws and Arizona State, as we can see Anaheim started ahead of Arizona in this 5 year sample, but more recently Arizona state has been the more superior team. This is understandable as 2015/2016 was the first season they were apart of NCAA Division 1 and have been getting better each season. Anaheim on the other hand has been up and down the standing, jumping from 2nd to 9th to 4th from S48 to S50. But on average Anaheim just pulls ahead in both categories. Anchorage Armada Kenai River Brown Bears S51 28-16-6 2nd/10 19/20 22-8-4 4th/26 -0.46 -8.71% S50 29-18-3 2nd/10 18/19 23-31-6 20th/24 6.33 19.67% S49 21-25-4 10th/10 17/18 18-38-4 22nd/23 -0.43 12.00% S48 26-22-2 5th/10 16/17 12-46-2 23rd/24 4.58 32.00% S47 25-20-5 6th/10 15/16 5-41-4 22nd/22 4.00 40.00% Average 2.80 18.99% Next we have the Anchorage Armada and the Kenai River Brown Bears. The Armada beat the Brown Bears every season except this most recent S51 vs 2019/2020. This because Kenai River made a huge jump up from 20th/24 the previous season to 4th/26 so far this season, and Anchorage were in 2nd/10 both seasons. But again the SHL team has the upper hand in terms of the 5 year average. Carolina Kraken University of Alabama Huntsville Chargers S51 35-12-3 1st/10 19/20 1-10-4 10th/10 9.00 63.33% S50 28-18-4 3rd/10 18/19 8-18-2 8th/10 5.00 27.43% S49 24-20-6 6th/10 17/18 10-16-2 7th/10 1.00 12.29% S48 25-19-6 5th/10 16/17 9-16-3 9th/10 4.00 17.86% S47 30-15-5 2nd/10 15/16 5-17-6 10th/10 8.00 42.14% Average 5.40 32.61% Our third pair is the Carolina Kraken and the University of Alabama Huntsville Chargers. This is the first clean sweep, with the SHL’s Carolina Kraken going ten for ten on stats. The closest season was S49 vs 2017/2018 in which the Kraken got 6th/10 and the Chargers were 7th/10. But looking at the average Carolina typically finished more than 5 positions above the University of Alabama Huntsville. Colorado Raptors University of Denver Pioneers S51 23-25-2 7th/10 19/20 3-3-3 3rd/8 -3.25 12.67% S50 30-18-2 1st/10 18/19 14-10-3 4th/8 4.00 8.15% S49 22-18-10 7th/10 17/18 12-6-10 2nd/10 -5.00 1.14% S48 18-25-7 9th/10 16/17 18-3-5 1st/8 -7.75 -33.23% S47 16-30-4 10th/10 15/16 17-5-2 3rd/8 -6.25 -38.83% Average -2.65 -8.02% Next we have the Colorado Raptors and the University of Denver. This is our first case in which on average the SHL team was below their opponent. While Colorado did best the University of Denver in the S50 vs 2018/2019 season, Denver finished ahead in the standing every other year. However Colorado did have a higher percentage of game won in S49 and S51 than the Pioneers despite finishing farther down the standings. But in the end the University of Denver came out on top. Detroit Falcons Windsor Spitfires S51 21-25-4 9th/10 19/20 19-7-4 6th/20 -6.00 -21.33% S50 25-19-7 5th/10 18/19 25-33-10 16th/20 3.00 12.25% S49 31-13-6 1st/10 17/18 32-30-6 11th/20 4.50 14.94% S48 29-17-4 3rd/10 16/17 41-19-8 7th/20 0.50 -2.29% S47 22-24-4 8th/10 15/16 40-21-7 7th/20 -4.50 -14.82% Average -0.50 -2.25% The 5th pair are the Detroit Falcons and the Windsor Spitfires. In this comparison the Windsor Spitfires bookended the series with the advantage in both the S47 vs 15/16 year and the S51 vs 19/20 year. The Falcons did take the meat of this series sandwich, with the closest year being the S48 vs 16/17 where the Falcons were ½ a place above the Spitfires in the standings and only had 2.29% less winning percentage. But in the end the seasons in which Windsor was a head were greater than when detroit was so the Windsor Spitfires took both of the average stats over the 5 years Halifax Raiders Halifax Mooseheads S51 28-17-5 3rd/10 19/20 15-15-3 13th/18 4.22 10.55% S50 19-27-4 10th/10 18/19 49-15-4 3rd/18 -8.33 -34.06% S49 26-15-9 3rd/10 17/18 43-18-7 4th/18 -0.78 -11.24% S48 20-27-3 8th/10 16/17 27-35-6 15th/18 0.33 0.29% S47 21-25-4 9th/10 15/16 21-39-8 17th/18 0.44 11.12% Average -0.82 -4.67% Next are the Halifax Raiders and the Halifax Mooseheads. The results were pretty close during the first three years, with the Raiders taking the first two and the Mooseheads taking the third. But then during the S50/ 2018/2019 season the Halifax Mooseheads had a great season and the Halifax Raiders did not. The positions did flip-flop this past season with the Raiders taking the reigns once more, but on average this matchup goes to the Halifax Mooseheads. Kelowna Knights Kelowna Rockets S51 24-23-3 5th/10 19/20 18-11-3 9th/22 -0.91 -8.25% S50 23-24-3 9th/10 18/19 28-32-6 18th/22 -0.82 3.58% S49 28-16-6 2nd/10 17/18 43-22-5 5th/22 0.27 -5.43% S48 15-30-5 10th/10 16/17 45-22-5 6th/22 -7.27 -32.50% S47 22-23-5 7th/10 15/16 48-20-4 3th/22 -5.64 -22.67% Average -2.87 -13.05% Up next is the pairing of the Kelowna Knights and the Kelowna Rockets. This one pains me to write, but besides the standings positioning in S49 and the win percentage in S50, the Kelowna Knights were below the Rockets in every comparison. The past three seasons the Knights have kept it close, being less that one spot below the Rockets in the Standing comparison, and keeping the win percentage difference below 10%, but as we can see this comparison definitely goes to the Kelowna Rockets Lethbridge Lions Lethbridge Hurricanes S51 25-19-6 4th/10 19/20 20-10-5 6th/22 -1.27 -7.14% S50 25-21-4 6th/10 18/19 40-18-10 6th/22 -3.27 -8.82% S49 26-21-3 5th/10 17/18 33-33-6 11th/22 0.00 6.17% S48 26-23-1 7th/10 16/17 44-21-7 7th/22 -3.82 -9.11% S47 26-18-6 4th/10 15/16 46-24-1 4th/22 -2.18 -12.79% Average -2.11 -6.34% This next comparison between the Lethbridge Lions and the Lethbridge Hurricanes ends much like the previous one. With the exception of S49 vs 2017/2019 The Lethbridge Hurricanes were ahead of the Lethbridge Lions in every season. So like the Kelowna match up the Major Junior team comes out ahead, but looking at the average the Lethbridge Lions were closer to their counterparts than Kelowna. St. Louis Scarecrows Springfield Jr. Blues S51 23-23-4 6th/10 19/20 10-20-3 23rd/26 2.85 15.70% S50 23-23-4 8th/10 18/19 33-22-4 9th/24 -4.25 -9.93% S49 24-22-4 8th/10 17/18 33-21-5 9th/23 -4.09 -7.93% S48 33-14-3 1st/10 16/17 27-28-4 18th/24 6.50 20.24% S47 33-14-3 1st/10 15/16 29-25-3 13th/22 4.91 15.12% Average 1.18 6.64% The 9th Matchup is the St. Louis Scarecrows vs the Springfield Jr. Blues. This matchup went back and forth with the Scarecrows taking the first two seasons on S47 and S48, but the Jr. Blues came back and brought the series even by taking the next two seasons, 2017/2018 and 2018/2019. But with the St. Louis Scarecrows taking the comparison in this past seasons, they solidify their victory over the Springfield Jr. Blues. Vancouver Whalers Vancouver Giants S51 20-25-5 10th/10 19/20 15-15-2 15th/22 -3.18 -6.88% S50 23-22-5 7th/10 18/19 48-15-3 2nd/22 -6.09 -26.73% S49 26-20-4 4th/10 17/18 36-27-6 9th/22 -2.64 -0.17% S48 28-16-6 4th/10 16/17 20-46-3 21st/22 5.55 27.01% S47 30-17-3 3rd/10 15/16 23-40-5 21st/22 6.55 26.18% Average 0.04 3.88% Last but not least we have the Vancouver Whalers vs the Vancouver Giants. This was definitely the closest matchup. The Whalers took the first two seasons handily with Vancouver geting 21st /22 in both seasons. But with both the Giants doing better the next seasons and the Whalers falling in the standings the Vancouver Giants won the matchup in the last three seasons. But luckily for the Whalers their victories in the first two years were enough to just keep them ahead of the Giants in the averages. Now that we have looked at the teams individually, let's take a look at how the SHL did as a whole. Looking at each matchup as 10 games, the SHL went 58-41-1 against their Counterparts. The below chart now shows the averages of all the SHL teams for each year as well as overall. So as we can see the SHL took the first two years in both categories. The Major Junior teams did come back though the next season, taking the standings off the SHL, but the SHL kept the winning percentage. S50 vs 2018/2019 was the only year in which the SHL lost both comparisons, as S51 match S49 in which the SHL lost the standings fight but won the Win percentage. But overall the SHL just barely squeaked ahead of the Major Junior teams, being just 0.06 spots ahead of them in the standings and 3.87% ahead in win percentage. Averages S51 - 19/20 -0.43 4.04% S50 - 18/19 -0.48 -1.65% S49 - 17/18 -0.71 4.22% S48 - 16/17 0.97 4.90% S47 - 15/16 0.94 7.82% Overall 0.06 3.87% Feel free to tell me how wrong my math is, or what stats I should have compared instead. And like i said at the beginning I am going to try and do this a few more times following my player Adam Scianna, so up next because he will be a send down next year I will do a comparison of the SHL and the Minor Professional Leagues of the AHL and ECHL. But damn this took a long time to write, so we will see how much i need the money.
Enter the password to open this PDF file:
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-