This article was downloaded by: [New York University] On: 15 February 2015, At: 02:46 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK Petroleum Science and Technology Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/lpet20 The Caspian Sea Basin, Middle East Petroleum Resources, and the Importance of Turkey a a H. Aburas & A. Demirbas a King Abdulaziz University, College of Engineering, Department of Industrial Engineering, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia Published online: 03 Feb 2015. Click for updates To cite this article: H. Aburas & A. Demirbas (2015) The Caspian Sea Basin, Middle East Petroleum Resources, and the Importance of Turkey, Petroleum Science and Technology, 33:4, 397-405, DOI: 10.1080/10916466.2014.984075 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10916466.2014.984075 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. 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Demirbas1 1 King Abdulaziz University, College of Engineering, Department of Industrial Engineering, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia Downloaded by [New York University] at 02:46 15 February 2015 Turkey is at the crossroads of Europe and several volatile and strategically and economically important regions, including the Caspian Sea basin region, the Middle East, and Russia. Turkey is the most important part of Caspian Sea Basin-Middle East-Turkey triangle. Its location on two continents plays a central part in Turkish history and gives the country a major advantage in serving the markets of Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa. Turkey’s geopolitical situation will play possible important role in regional politics in the near future. Turkey’s domestic energy sources especially new petroleum reserves will become important in the future. Petroleum plays very important role in foreign policies and their international relations of Caspian and Middle East countries. The Middle East itself produces 32% of the world’s oil, but even more impressive is they have 64% of the total proven oil reserves in the world. Keywords: petroleum, resources, Turkey, Caspian Basin, Middle East 1. INTRODUCTION Turkey’s geographical location makes it a natural bridge between Europe and Asia (Demirbas, 2008a). Turkey is in close geographical proximity to countries possessing more than 70% of proven global gas and oil reserves. Its geographical location makes Turkey an important poten- tial corridor in particular for oil and natural gas from Central Asia and Middle East countries to the European Union (EU). Turkey is already a major transit route for oil from Russia, and Central Asia, to global markets. Turkey is at the crossroads of several volatile, strategically and economically important regions, including of the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus (Demirbas, 2002a). Turkey is the most important part of Caspian Sea Basin-Middle East-Turkey triangle. Turkey will certainly play a significant role in the world’s energy sector during the first decades of the 21st century (Ediger and Akar, 2007). As Turkey has improved its economic situation in recent years, the energy demand has increased (Sozen and Arcaklioglu, 2007). Energy demand of Turkey is growing by 8% annually, one of the highest rates in the world (Kilic, 2006). Address correspondence to A. Demirbas, King Abdulaziz University, College of Engineering, Department of Industrial Engineering, P.O. Box 80204, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia. E-mail: [email protected] 397 398 H. ABURAS AND A. DEMIRBAS 2. KNOWN PETROLEUM RESERVES OF THE WORLD Petroleum, from Greek petra (rock) and elaion (oil) or Latin oleum (oil) or crude oil, is a thick, dark brown or greenish liquid. People have used petroleum since ancient times. The ancient Chinese and Egyptians burned oil for lighting. Before the 1850s, kerosene obtained from oil has been used for lighting in homes and shops. The modern history of petroleum began in 1846, with the discovery of the process of refining kerosene from coal by Atlantic Canada’s Abraham Pineo Gesner. Poland’s Ignacy Łukasiewicz discovered a means of refining kerosene from the more readily available rock oil in 1852 and the first rock oil mine was built in Bobrka, near Krosno in southern Poland in the following year. The first commercial oil well drilled in North America was in Oil Springs, Ontario, Canada in 1858, dug by James Miller Williams. The American petroleum industry began with Edwin Drake’s discovery Downloaded by [New York University] at 02:46 15 February 2015 of oil in 1859, near Titusville, Pennsylvania. Petroleum is a fossil fuel. It is called a fossil fuel because it was formed from the remains of tiny sea plants and animals that died millions of years ago. Petroleum consists of a complex mixture of various hydocarbons, largely of the alkane series, but may vary much in appearance and composition (Demirbas, 1998, 2000, 2002b). The three categories of reserves generally used are proven, probable, and possible reserves. Proven reserves defined as oil and gas reasonably certain to be producible using current technology at current prices. Probable reserves defined as oil and gas reasonably probable of being produced using current or likely technology at current prices. Possible reserves that having a chance of being developed under favorable circumstances. Crude oil is the most important energy source in a global perspective. About 35% of the world’s primary energy consumption is supplied by oil, followed by coal with 25% and natural gas with 21%. Transport relies to well over 90% on oil, be it transport on roads, by ships or by aircrafts. Therefore, the economy and the lifestyle of industrialized societies rely heavily on the sufficient supply of oil, moreover, probably also on the supply of cheap oil. Table 1 shows 1973, 2006, and 2013 regional shares of crude oil production (International Energy Agency, 2013). The Middle East itself produces 32% of the world’s oil, but even more impressive is they have 64% of the total proven oil reserves in the world (Table 2). This is significant because their reserves are depleting at a slower rate than any other region in the world. This amount of oil in the region that could potentially be in a war has resulted in higher prices of petroleum (International Energy Agency, 2007). The Middle East consists of more than half Organization of Oil Exporting Countries’s (OPEC) total oil exports and is a major factor in the price of oil in the world. Even though OPEC produces less than half the oil in the world, they still set the world price. Petroleum based fuels are limited TABLE 1 1973, 2006, and 2013 Regional Shares of Crude Oil Production Region 1973 2006 2013 Middle East (%) 37.0 31.1 32.3 OECD (%) 23.6 23.2 21.3 Former USSR (%) 15.0 15.2 14.6 Africa (%) 10.0 12.1 10.5 Latin America (%) 8.6 9.0 11.4 Asia excluding China (%) 3.2 4.5 4.6 China (%) 1.9 4.7 5.2 Non-OECD Europe (%) 0.7 0.2 0.2 PETROLEUM RESOURCES 399 TABLE 2 Percentages of Petroleum Production and Total Proven Reserves by Region Middle Latin Eastern North Asia and Western East America Europe America Pacific Africa Europe Production amount 32 14 13 11 11 10 9 Proven reserve 64 12 6 3 4 9 2 reserves concentrated in certain regions of the world. These sources are in the verge of getting extinct. Known petroleum reserves are estimated to be depleted in less than 50 years at the present Downloaded by [New York University] at 02:46 15 February 2015 rate of consumption. Oil is the fossil fuel that is most in danger to become short in supply. Figure 1 shows global oil production scenarios based on today’s production. A peak in global oil production may occur between 2015 and 2030. Countries in the Middle East and the Russian Federation hold 70% of the world’s dwindling reserves of oil and gas. Geographical distribution of energy reserves and resources is important. Production will start to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame. OPEC currently includes 11 members. The members at this time were Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar, Indonesia, Libya, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, and Gabon. The OPEC oil embargo was a political statement against the United States. OPEC’s oil embargo caused a drastic increase in the price of petroleum and made rationing an important part of the U.S. economy in 1973. OPEC members try to set production levels for petroleum. As a rule, the less oil they produce, the higher the price of oil on the world market. The more oil they produce, the lower the price. The OPEC countries don’t always agree with each other. Some OPEC countries want to produce less oil to raise prices. Other OPEC countries want to flood the market with petroleum to reap immediate returns (International Energy Agency, 2007). FIGURE 1 Global oil production scenarios based on today’s production. 400 H. ABURAS AND A. DEMIRBAS It is often claimed that OPEC sets the oil price and the true cost of a barrel of oil is around $2, which is equivalent to the cost of extraction of a barrel in the Middle East. These estimates of costs ignore the cost of finding and developing oil reserves. Furthermore the important cost as far as price is concerned, is not the price of the cheapest barrel but the cost of producing the marginal barrel. By limiting production OPEC has caused more expensive areas of produc- tion such as the North Sea to be developed before the Middle East has been exhausted. OPEC’s power is also often overstated. Investing in spare capacity is expensive and the low oil price environment in the late 90s led to cutbacks in investment. This has meant during the oil price rally seen between 2003 and 2005, OPEC’s spare capacity has not been sufficient to stabilize prices. Oil demand is highly dependent on global macroeconomic conditions, so this is also an important determinant of price. Some economists claim that high oil prices have a large negative impact on Downloaded by [New York University] at 02:46 15 February 2015 the global growth. The OPEC countries Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Kuwait are gradually opening up to foreign investment. The OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, believe the industrialized world is denying it justice in the oil markets. 3. PLACE OF TURKEY IN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS The Republic of Turkey pursued foreign policy based on the principle “Peace at home and peace in the world.” Turkey became a founding member of the United Nations (UN) in 1945 and joined the Council of Europe in 1949. As a result of the growing threats to security in Europe, she joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance in 1952. There are currently 28 members within NATO. They are: Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States. In 1963, Turkey became a forerunner of the EU. Turkey is a member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Economic Cooperation Organi- zation (ECO). The OECD is an international organization of 34 countries that accept the principles of representative democracy and a free market economy. The IEA is an international energy organization. The IEA was founded by the OECD nations after the oil shocks in the 1970s as a counterweight to OPEC. Since that time the IEA has been regarded as the energy watchdog of the western world and is supposed to help to avoid future crises. Until 2004 the IEA published the World Energy Outlook (WEO) every two years, since then every year. The WEO forecasts the development of the coming two decades. The IEA also publishes monthly reports covering the current situation of the oil markets. The usual basis for demand and supply forecasts is the WEO biannually prepared by the IEA. The IEA has provided an important institutional mechanism for coordinating international prepa- rations for such a disruption, and its members have instituted strategic stockpiles that have, in turn, served as a major deterrent against producer countries individually or collectively using their oil weapon to pressure individual oil-importing countries. Turkey is obliged to hold minimum oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of annual consumption in accordance with requirements of the IEA. Following recent oil price increases, companies have used their oil stocks to compensate, and oil stocks are currently below required levels. Turkey has continued its efforts to diversify resources and routes and to strengthen its role as a transit country for oil and gas from the Caspian Basin and the Middle East to the EU. PETROLEUM RESOURCES 401 4. TURKEY’S OIL HISTORY The existence of oil in Turkey was first mentioned by the Turkish historian traveler Evliya Celebi in the 18th century. Exploration began in the second half of the 19th century, when both domestic and foreign companies carried out exploration in Thrace. The first productive well, operated by the European Petroleum Company, was located in the Hora Deresi region (Thrace). However, World War I, coupled with the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the birth of modern Turkish state, temporarily halted oil-related activity. After the Republic was proclaimed in 1923, oil exploration resumed under the authority of the new Government body empowered to explore for minerals and petroleum in Turkey. The State Minerals Exploration Institute (MTA) drilled several wells in the Southeast, primarily in the Raman region. In 1940, the first productive well, Raman 8 was drilled in the Raman Oil Field, setting the stage for later exploration of this large oil field. Downloaded by [New York University] at 02:46 15 February 2015 In 1951, the Garzan field was discovered in the same region, also as result of MTA-sponsored explorations. The Turkish Petroleum Corporation, or Turkiye Petrolleri Anonime Ortakligi (TPAO), the state- owned oil producing firm, accounts for 55% of the oil output in Turkey with its production in the first quarter of 2006. The TPAO has more than 45 oilfields producing in four southeastern districts: Siirt, Diyarbakir, Gaziantep, and Adana. From 1994 to mid-1998, the TPAO found about 2–3 fields every year. The TPAO was set up in 1954 as took over from the MTA. The MTA had made Turkey’s first major oil discovery at Raman in 1940 and 1945, and had found the Garzan field close to Raman in 1951 (Demirbas, 2008b). Since then the TPAO has made many discoveries, partly with the help of foreign experts. In 1954, state monopoly in petroleum exploration and production was abandoned. In 1960, national petroleum production was 363,103 tons, 97% of which belonged to the TPAO. In 1954, liberalized petroleum legislation opened up oil exploration to private companies both domestic and foreign. These changes in the government’s petroleum policy were embodied in the Petroleum Law 6326, which today governs all oil exploration and exploitation activities (Yilmaz and Uslu, 2007). In the same year, the TPAO, a national petroleum company, was established by Law 6327. During the years 1954–2004, 70% of the geological surveys, 75% of the geophysical surveys, and 76% of total drilling in Turkey was done by TPAO. TPAO produced 55% of total crude oil and 93% of total natural gas in Turkey. The TPAO drilled 60 exploration wells in 1993, only one of which hit oil. In 1994 it planned to drill 81, stepping up work outside the affected southeast. Meanwhile, Mobil was doing seismic work in central and southern Turkey, and Shell Oil and United States Arco were both exploring in the southeast. The Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) of the Republic of Turkey was established in 1963 in order to assist in determining the objectives and policies on the energy sector and to enable exploration, development, production and consumption of the energy resources in compliance with these objectives and policies. Primary energy production of Turkey increased from 9.54 mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) in 1960 to 18.86 mtoe in 1980 increasing by about twofold. The share of resources in total energy production for the year 1980 was 21.8% by lignite, 19.5% by dung, 14.7% by hydropower, 14.2% by petroleum, 12.7% by hard coal, and 1.5% by natural gas and asphaltite (Demirbas, 2006, 2007). Energy consumption increased from 11.21 mtoe in 1960 to 33.47 mtoe in 1980 increasing by about threefold. The share of resources in meeting energy consumption for the year 1980 was 47.8 by petroleum, 23.8 by wood and dung, 19.8% by hard coal and lignite, 7.5% by hydropower and 1.1% by asphaltite, natural gas, and imported electricity (Turkish Electricity Distribution, 1998). In 1983, the oil’s share of total energy consumption was 47% and the share of natural gas less than 0.01%, but in 2005, oil’s share decreased to about 35.9% and the share of natural gas increase, to 25.4% (Balat, 2008). In the years 1973 and 1977, Turkey was exposed to two petroleum crises resulting from excessive increase in petroleum prices. The new Turkish Petroleum Law created a block of opposition from the 402 H. ABURAS AND A. DEMIRBAS Downloaded by [New York University] at 02:46 15 February 2015 FIGURE 2 Oil production in Turkey between 1982 and 2006. profession groups in Turkey. It may help attracting new and serious investors with a huge intention to explore and produce natural gas and oil in Turkey (Babali, 2009). TPAO’s exploration and development operations are increased in three main areas. These are international, offshore and domestic exploration. 45% of TPAO’s 100,000 barrels/day production is from domestic fields, the rest is from international fields. Internationally, the TPAO has three licenses in Kazakhstan. From these fields, 10,000 barrels/day production is sustained. A new protocol is signed with Syria. The work is going on for Brazil, Iran, Libya, Tanzania, and Yemen. Oil production in Turkey between 1982 and 2006 is depicted in Figure 2. The TPAO, Shell Oil, and Mobil control most petroleum output, which had climbed gradually to a peak of 3.6 million tons in 1969 but declined to about 2.1 million tons in 1985 as deposits were depleted. By the early 1990s, output had increased once again to nearly 4.4 million tons. The main petroleum project during the 1980s was an attempt at secondary recovery at the Bati Raman fields in southeastern Anatolia, which were expected to produce roughly 1.5 million tons a year over a 20-year period. By 1992, 43.5% of final energy came from petroleum, 31.1% from lignite and hard coal, and 25.4% from other energy sources. Proven reserves are estimated at about 16 million tons, and enhanced oil-recovery techniques may allow extraction of another 30 million tons. Turkey’s proven and estimated petroleum stocks are equivalent to about three years’ consumption. In 1995, Turkey’s privatization program appeared to be back on track after a period of wrangling over the legality of the sale of the state refinery company Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (TUPRAS) and the retail company Petrol Ofisi (PO). The sale of part or all of each company is scheduled to take place before the end of 1995. The TPAO pipeline extends for nearly 500 km from the oil fields near Batman to Dortyol on the Mediterranean coast. The corporation also owns and operates the Turkish section of the pipeline from Iraq’s Kirkuk fields to a port facility near Dortyol. There are several existing petroleum pipelines going through Turkey: the Ceyhan-Kirikkale Crude Oil Pipeline; the Batman-Dortyol Crude Oil Pipeline, which goes from the Batman area to the Bay of Iskenderun; and the Iraq-Turkey Crude Oil Pipeline, running from Kirkuk, Iraq, to Ceyhan, Turkey. Much of Turkey’s future oil supply will come via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline, carrying 1 million barrels of oil per day. PETROLEUM RESOURCES 403 5. THE FUTURE ROLE OF TURKEY IN OIL Turkey’s oil consumption increased from 16.7 million tons (Mt) in 1983 to 30 Mt in 2005 (MENR, 2007), with an average annual growth of 2.8%. Oil consumption has an opposite trend, and it is expected to increase to 41.8 Mt in 2010 (Demirbas, 2002). Turkey’s oil production in 2005 met only 7.7% of demand and the rest (92.3%) was imported, mainly from Saudi Arabia, Libya, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Syria, and Algeria. The import bill for oil and petroleum products in 2005 was US$12.4 billion and for gas and LPG it was US$7.1 billion (Pamir, 2005). Exploration and production and importation of crude oil and petroleum products are liberalized. About 20 companies are exploring for oil and gas in Turkey’s 18 petroleum districts. The TPAO alone accounts for nearly 80% of the country’s oil output (Demirbas, 2001). Oil fields are generally small, old and no economic to exploit petroleum in Turkey’s southeast (Demirbas and Bakis, 2004). Downloaded by [New York University] at 02:46 15 February 2015 Energy forecasts show that primary energy demand would be 156 million toe (6,598 PJ) in 2010. However, share of indigenous productions to meet the energy demand of Turkey are expected to be as 38% in 2010. Considering the production objectives and demand forecasts, it will be necessary to import a total 96 million toe (4,060 PJ) of energy in 2010. The Turkish energy sector, with its current size of 30 billion US dollars and projected size of US$55 billion by 2015 as well as the fundamental restructuring process it has been going through since 2001, attracts both local and foreign investors. The sector needs an investment amount of approximately US$130 billion by 2020 (Balat, 2008). The state-owned TPAO, which has long carried out extensive exploration and extraction work for oil in the Black Sea. It has been decided that the TPAO together with Brazilian national oil company Petrobras will begin drilling by 2010 for oil exploration in the Black Sea. Then the TPAO now looks set to expand its activities in the Mediterranean and exploration projects are planning for the shallow waters of the Antalya, Iskenderun and Mersin bays. According to the Anatolia news agency Turkey would begin exploration with foreign partners in July or August 2007. The TPAO is planning for oil exploration in the eastern Mediterranean were related to the Greek Cypriot move to open a bidding process to license offshore oil exploration in the region. Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan derives from their common interests on this issue, as well as cultural, linguistic, ethnic, and historical ties that exist between the two Turkic peoples. In April 1998, the presidents of Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan confirmed their support for the Baku- Ceyhan pipeline. And on October 19, 1998, on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of Turkey, the presidents of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, and Turkey signed a declaration of support for the oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea to Baku (Azerbaijan) via Tbilisi (Georgia) to Ceyhan (Turkey). The efforts of the trans-Caspian nations to bypass Russia when transporting hydrocarbons, has led to the emergence of Turkey as a dominant player in the export of Caspian oil and gas. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline became a priority of Turkish policy towards the Caspian region and an important issue of Turkish foreign policy, in which Russia will be bypassed in favor of Georgia to get Caspian oil to the Black Sea. Turkey desires historical, cultural and traditional ties with the countries of the Middle East and maintains cordial relations with all countries of the region. Turkey supports every effort aimed at bringing about a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in the Middle East. Turkey feels united to Israel by strategic bonds, and over the last decade, Turkey has become an important regional actor in the Middle East Peace Process (Barkey, 1996) Turkey has been part of the European state system since the 19th century when the Ottoman Empire was included in the Concert of Europe. Meanwhile, Turkey’s full membership to the EC has been a primary objective of Turkey’s foreign policy. Developments within the EC will also be important. Turkey is located at a geopolitics place between the Middle and Near East where rich oil and natural gas reserves prevail and the Western world where the main energy consumption takes place. 404 H. ABURAS AND A. DEMIRBAS 6. CONCLUSION Turkey efficiently addresses domestic as well as foreign oil and natural gas needs and economic interests of energy supplying countries in the Caspian Sea basin region and the Middle East and Gulf region. Turkey is geographically close to 70% of the world’s proven oil and natural gas resources and thus an energy bridge between major oil producing areas in the Caspian region, the Middle East, and Russia on one hand, and European consumer markets on the other hand. Oil fields in Turkey’s Southeast, which is the main producing area, are generally small and expensive to exploit, although several promising discoveries have been made in the region in recent years. Turkish oil consumption has increased in the last decades, and this trend is expected to continue into the near future. Turkey supplies major crude oil demand from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the Downloaded by [New York University] at 02:46 15 February 2015 United Arab Emirates, Libya, Iraq, and Russia. Turkey’s oil production is only 8.0% of demand and the rest (92.0%) was imported. Turkey, undoubtedly, is a high oil-importing country. Turkey’s increasing oil and natural needs have given Turkey a strong interest in developing ties with Russia and energy producing countries in the Middle East and the Caspian Region. Petroleum plays very important role in Turkey’s foreign policy and the international relations of its allies and neighbors. 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