MEMORANDUM TO: Tony Krvaric, Republican Party of San Diego County FROM: John Nienstedt and Jenny Holland, Ph.D. RE: Results of Sherman San Diego Mayoral Primary Poll DATE: January 13, 2020 This memo documents some of the findings from our poll of 404 registered voters in the City of San Diego which we fielded January 2 through 6. The results have been appropriately weighted to model a 50% turnout. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.9%. Interviews were conducted by trained professionals from our offices in El Paso, TX and via the web for registrants with only an e-mail address on the voter file. State Assemblyman Todd Gloria is by far the best known and most popular of the mayoral candidates and enjoys a very healthy 2.4:1favorability ratio. City Councilwoman Barbara Bry and City Councilman Scott Sherman essentially tie in terms of name recognition, though more voters dislike Bry. I N I T I A L V O TE CA N D I D AT E I M P R ESSI O NS N EV ER V ERY UN F A V O RA BL E SO MEW HA T UN F A V O RA BL E HEA RD/ N O O P IN IO N SO MEW HAT FAV O RABL E V ERY FAV O RABL E TOD D G LORIA, HEARD A S S E M B L Y M EM B ER 30% STA TE A SSEMBL Y MA N TO DD GL O RIA 8% 9% 18% 23% 18% 25% B ARB ARA B RY, C O U N C I L M E M B ER A N D 12% B U S I N E S S W O M AN C ITY C O UN C IL W O MA N BA RBA RA BRY 3% 8% 21% 17% 3% 48% S C O T T S H E R M A N, C I T Y 12% COU N CILMAN C ITY C O UN C IL MA N SC O TT SHERMA N 4% 17% 14% 5% 58% T A S H A W I L L I A M S ON , Gloria leads handily in the initial test, with Bry and Sherman tying for N O N P R O F I T E X E C U T IV E 4% second place. Forty-two percent are unsure, so the race is wide open. Further, only 27% of those who chose a candidate are definitely voting for UNSURE 42% that person, which tells us vote choice is very fluid at this point. After tests of candidate biographies and campaign messages related to all three major candidates, Sherman moves to within striking distance of Gloria and separates himself from Bry in the final ballot test. If the campaign plays out along the lines we tested, Sherman will make the run- off. Party: Half are Democrats, outpacing Republicans (26%) and nonpartisans (21%) Ideology: Most (55%) are liberal and 35% are conservative Ethnicity: 13% are Latino Turnout History: 48% are very reliable and almost certain to vote Registration Year: 23% registered post-2018 and 25% registered in 2017 and 2018
Enter the password to open this PDF file:
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-