China’s formidable military posturing and territorial expansionism into the South China Sea has created deep diplomatic tensions with neighboring countries such the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and Indonesia, leading some theorists to question how to resolve this complex dilemma in international affairs. The area holds a crucial maritime route for international trade, connecting the Pacific/Indian oceans, and is considered to have substantial oil and gas deposits. Despite the geographical distance, China asserts sovereignty over the vast expanse of the South China Sea, encompassing territories far removed from its own, such as the Paracel and Spratly Islands, citing historical documents and maps from the Han Dynasty as the basis for its claims. Similarly, Taiwan faces a parallel challenge, as China asserts territorial claims over Taiwan based on the "One China Policy." This précis explores the complex nature of the South China Sea conflict and Taiwan Conflict, and two theories on how to examine state behavior, namely Offensive Realism and Rationalism. Ultimately, this précis concludes that Offensive Realism provides a more accurate lens through which to evaluate these conflicts. Offensive Realism holds that big powers act aggressively because they need to acquire greater power in order to increase their security and chances of surviving. Applying this to the South China Sea, China’s expansionism stems from a desire to dominate the region to increase its own chances of survival in an insecure international environment. Additionally, China has increased its military presence in the Taiwan Strait, with frequent military exercises and the deployment of advanced weaponry, which has raised tensions between the two countries. China’s behavior towards Taiwan has also led to increased scrutiny from the international community, particularly the United States, which has a vested interest in maintaining stability in the region. Alternatively, the theory of Rationalism highlights the role of rational players in shaping state behaviors, where states are strategic entities that carefully assess costs and benefits to maximize their national interests. Rationalists argue that conflict arises from miscalculations or unsuccessful negotiations, rather than the pursuit of hegemony. They emphasize the importance of state cooperation and negotiation to achieve objectives without resorting to force. States strive for certainty in planning and strategic decision-making. This study aims to scrutinize the nature of the South China Sea and Taiwan conflicts, critically assessing the two opposing theories. Ultimately, it will posit that the framework of Offensive Realism offers a more invaluable lens for analysis. CASE STUDY TAIWAN: Exploring China's pursuit of Taiwan reveals more valuable insights on the efficacy of Offensive Realism, a framework that underscores states’ unyielding pursuit of power and security in an anarchic international system. The intertwined conflicts in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, rooted in historical disputes dating back to the 1950s, reflect China's ambitions to establish itself as a dominant regional power. The resolution of these conflicts significantly impact regional stability and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. The dynamics in the Taiwan Strait underscore the inherent revisionist tendencies of states, with China seeking to assert its influence and prevent Taiwan's independence, while Taiwan endeavors to preserve its autonomy. Furthermore, the involvement of external actors, such as the United States, highlights the interplay of interests and power dynamics as states try to maximize their relative power and influence in the region, contributing to a complex web of strategic calculations and conflict scenarios emblematic of offensive realism. This case study is relevant today as both geopolitical hotspots experience escalating political disparities, military posturing, and the looming specter of armed conflict, coinciding with China's emergence as a dominant global force. Offensive realism emphasizes the critical need for a deep understanding of the complex issues in East Asia in order to manage potential tensions and promote international stability. Offensive Realism's recognition of states’ unyielding pursuit of dominance and security provides a thorough and insightful perspective on the factors at play between China and Taiwan. It also highlights the importance of considering the lasting impact of historical events and ongoing challenges in the Taiwan Strait. Since the 1950s, Taiwan and China have been embroiled in a lengthy dispute stemming from the aftermath of the civil war, which led to the establishment of the People's Republic of China on the mainland, while the Republic of China government found refuge in Taiwan. This division has fueled years of tension, as both sides lay claim to the rightful governance of the entire Chinese territory. The situation became more intense in 1949 when the U.S. formally committed to protecting Taiwan through the Formosa Resolution, authorizing the President to employ military force to defend Taiwan and its surrounding islands. This pledge was a response to the growing threat of communist expansion in the region and the looming possibility of a Chinese incursion into Taiwan. The unwavering U.S. stance on safeguarding Taiwan has been a pivotal and enduring aspect of its foreign policy, exerting a profound influence on the Taiwan-China relationship and significantly shaping the broader geopolitical landscape of East Asia. Much like the enduring South China Sea issue, the Taiwan-China dispute has been a long-standing conflict spanning decades. Both sides assert their rightful governance over a specific territory, leading to years of tension and occasional military displays. The United States has been actively involved in both conflicts, vowing to protect Taiwan and amplifying its military presence in the South China Sea to safeguard its interests. The persistent nature of these conflicts and the participation of major powers underscore the intricate and delicate nature of international relations in the region, where territorial disputes and geopolitical interests converge. Offensive Realism provides a useful lens on China's pursuit of greater influence on the global stage, as evidenced by its activities in both the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. In a world devoid of a central authority, states like China prioritize their security and survival, driving them to pursue power and dominance over the regional order, including Taiwan. President Xi Jinping's unwavering emphasis on the "reunification" with Taiwan, coupled with the dispatch of warships, including an aircraft carrier, into the surrounding seas, vividly underscores China’s strategic intentions. These actions are grounded in a multifaceted rationale, aligning closely with the tenets of Offensive Realism. First, China sees Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, considering reunification with Taiwan as a core national interest. The concept of "One China" is a fundamental principle in Chinese foreign policy, emphasizing the significance of reunification for China's national rejuvenation and territorial integrity. Second, Taiwan's strategic location in the Asia-Pacific region holds immense geopolitical significance for China. It provides strategic advantages in terms of maritime security, regional influence, and access to vital sea lanes, much like the strategic importance of the South China Sea. Additionally, reunification with Taiwan is often portrayed as a matter of national pride, symbolizing China's resurgence as a global power. This narrative is closely tied to China's political legitimacy and the unity it seeks to project. Furthermore, China is drawn to Taiwan's advanced economy, technological prowess, and innovation capabilities, factors that offer strategic advantages for China's economic development and global competitiveness. On the other hand, Taiwan is determined to maintain its autonomy from China, bolstered by U.S. support. Taiwan’s determination significantly influences its approach to cross-Strait relations and its pursuit of self-determination. The strong sense of Taiwanese identity and the widespread desire for self-determination play a pivotal role in shaping Taiwan's stance on its relationship with China. By analyzing the interactions and motivations between China and Taiwan through the lens of Offensive Realism, we gain valuable insights into their pursuit of power, security concerns, and the potential for conflict in the region. According to Offensive Realism theory, states are fundamentally driven by the imperative to safeguard their survival within an anarchic global order. China's substantial military expansion in the Taiwan Strait, characterized by advancements in naval capabilities and missile technology, serves as a resounding testament to its strategic resolve to fortify its security and protect its interests validating the theory of Offensive Realism. The theory suggests that nations are propelled to compete for power, recognizing the vital role of influence and power in ensuring their survival. This approach mirrors China's actions relative to Taiwan, offering a compelling historical illustration that vividly encapsulates the principles of Offensive Realism. China's efforts are not confined to specific objectives but are integral to its overarching ambition to solidify its position as a global force, with the ultimate goal of surpassing the United States. China strategically acknowledges the critical importance of key hotspots, such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, and aims precisely at achieving its mission for hegemony in both these areas. The deployment of advanced weaponry, such as ballistic missiles and fighter jets (Katsner 164), as well as the modernization of its naval and air forces, underscores China's commitment to projecting power in the region and signaling its resolve in the context of cross-Strait relations. Moreover, China's staging of military exercises near the Taiwan Strait and its escalation of diplomatic pressure on countries supporting Taiwan serve as clear indicators of its strategic calculations within the context of Offensive Realism. Professor Scott L. Kastner's research in the Journal of Taiwan Studies provides valuable insights into the application of Offensive Realism to the intricate cross-Strait relationship, highlighting the role of nationalism and identity transformation in both Taiwan and China. He emphasizes that the upsurge of nationalism in both China and Taiwan has entrenched their respective stances, posing challenges to achieving a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Additionally, Kastner observes that Taiwan's evolving identity, with a growing inclination towards a Taiwanese rather than Chinese identity, has further complicated the cross-Strait relationship. From the vantage point of Offensive Realism, Kastner's analysis highlights the role of relative power in shaping state behavior. With China's increasing power, there is a heightened assertiveness in asserting territorial claims, particularly concerning Taiwan. Lastly, Kastner's analysis indicates that nationalism and identity transformation can exacerbate security dilemmas, thereby impeding the peaceful resolution of conflicts. (pg 14). The strategic competition between the United States and China in the Taiwan Strait has drawn significant attention due to recent studies from the Congressional Research Service. This analysis has illuminated China's multifaceted approaches in the region, utilizing military, economic, and diplomatic means to enhance its strategic advantage and security. This comprehensive pursuit aligns with the principles of Offensive Realism, emphasizing the maximization of power in an anarchic international system. China's commitment to bolstering its military power projection capabilities in the Taiwan Strait, just like it has done in the South China Sea, serves as a deterrent against potential adversaries and reinforces its capacity to protect territorial claims by maximizing military prowess and dissuading possible enemies. The development and deployment of advanced naval and air assets, along with the establishment of military installations in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait, underscores China's goals. In 2000, China began to modernize its naval and air forces, aiming to enhance its capabilities in the Taiwan Strait area. Mainly, China has deployed advanced naval and air assets, including aircraft carriers, destroyers, submarines, fighter jets, and bombers, to the Taiwan Strait. This assertive military buildup aligns with China's pursuit of power and security in the region. In response, the United States increased its military exercises with the Philippines, signaling a focus on regional security in the Asia-Pacific region, including as related to Taiwan. Military assets allow China to extend its power beyond its territorial waters and demonstrate its influence in the region through regular military exercises. These actions not only contribute to the evolving power dynamics in the region but also pose potential risks of military confrontation, as evidenced by the increased frequency of military exercises and maneuvers conducted by both the United States and China. Furthermore, China's multifaceted approach extends beyond military measures to encompass economic and diplomatic tools. Leveraging economic incentives, investments, and strategic partnerships with regional countries, as well as utilizing diplomatic channels to shape international perceptions and policies related to Taiwan, further exemplify China's comprehensive pursuit of strategic advantage in the Taiwan Strait. The intricate nature of the strategic competition underscores the need for a nuanced understanding of the evolving power dynamics, military capabilities, and the delicate balance of deterrence in the region. This understanding is crucial for formulating effective strategies to maintain stability and manage potential security challenges in the Taiwan Strait.. Conclusively, the military build-up in the Taiwan Strait reflects a complex interplay of power dynamics, military capabilities, and the delicate balance of deterrence. By comprehensively analyzing the multifaceted nature of the strategic competition and recognizing the potential risks of military confrontation, policymakers can develop proactive strategies to uphold stability and mitigate security challenges in the region. This multifaceted military build-up demands a comprehensive approach that addresses not only military measures but also economic and diplomatic dimensions, in order to navigate the evolving strategic landscape in the Taiwan Strait effectively. Interestingly, Offensive Realism also helps explain why Taiwan is taking action against China. It's crucial to consider Taiwan's response to China's emergence as a great power with expanding military capabilities. Offensive Realism supports a robust U.S. stance against China’s claims on Taiwan, incorporating the use of military deterrence to counter China's quest for regional dominance. This perspective highlights the significance of fortifying Taiwan's security and seeking backing from major powers, particularly the United States, to counterbalance China's increasing influence and potential aggressive conduct. China's pursuit of regional dominance poses a significant threat to the balance of power in the region, necessitating a proactive approach involving the enhancement of Taiwan's defense capabilities and the formation of alliances with like-minded states to deter potential Chinese aggression. Taiwan's proactive measures to expand its diplomatic relations, increase its participation in international organizations, and secure defense support from the United States are closely aligned with the principles of Offensive Realism. These strategic initiatives reflect Taiwan's recognition of the need to strengthen its own security and enhance its international standing in the face of China's assertive regional ambitions. From an Offensive Realist perspective, Taiwan's pursuit of expanded diplomatic relations is a crucial component of its strategy to counterbalance China's growing influence. By cultivating and strengthening ties with other nations, Taiwan aims to enhance its international legitimacy and garner support for its sovereignty, thereby bolstering its position in the global arena. This strategy aligns with the Offensive Realist notion that states must actively seek alliances and support to counter potential threats and maintain their security in a competitive international environment. By engaging in multilateral forums and organizations, Taiwan seeks to amplify its voice, expand its network of allies, and advance its strategic interests, all of which are essential elements of Offensive Realism's emphasis on leveraging diplomatic and institutional channels to enhance national security and power projection, maintaining a favorable balance of power. By enhancing its security, seeking support from major powers, and actively resisting China’s influence, Taiwan is pursuing a proactive stance to safeguard its autonomy and repel China's efforts to bring it under mainland control, both diplomatically and militarily. (Stosic 124) In conclusion, Offensive Realism offers a comprehensive and insightful perspective on the complex forces driving China's pursuit of Taiwan, emphasizing the enduring influence of historical events and ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. The importance of Taiwan to China, encompassing historical, cultural, strategic, and geopolitical dimensions, makes the Taiwan Strait an ideal case study for exploring Offensive Realism. This theoretical framework provides valuable insights into power dynamics, security considerations, and the potential for conflict between Taiwan and China, shedding light on the strategic calculations, incentives, and outcomes of China's aspirations for regional dominance and territorial integrity. In the realm of international relations, Offensive Realism emerges as a compelling framework for analyzing China's assertive stance in the Taiwan Strait, driven by the imperative to safeguard their survival within an anarchic global order. China's substantial military expansion in the Taiwan Strait, characterized by advancements in naval capabilities and missile technology, serves as a resounding testament to its strategic resolve to fortify its security and protect its interests, otherwise known as Offensive Realism. Furthermore, Offensive Realism provides a theoretical foundation supporting a robust U.S. stance against China's claims on Taiwan, incorporating the use of military deterrence to counter China's quest for regional dominance. In summary, the application of Offensive Realism to the dynamics between China and Taiwan and between China and the South China Sea provides a comprehensive and insightful framework for understanding the pursuit of power, security concerns, and the potential for conflict in the region.