Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) was established by the United Nations University as its fi rst research and training centre and started work in Helsinki, Finland, in 1985. The mandate of the institute is to undertake applied research and policy analysis on structural changes affecting developing and transitional economies, to provide a forum for the advocacy of policies leading to robust, equitable, and environmentally sustainable growth, and to promote capacity strengthening and training in the fi eld of economic and social policymaking. Its work is carried out by staff researchers and visiting scholars in Helsinki and via networks of collaborating scholars and institutions around the world. United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) Katajanokanlaituri 6B, 00160 Helsinki, Finland www.wider.unu.edu Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa Edited by Channing Arndt, Andy McKay, and Finn Tarp A study prepared by the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) 1 3 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP, United Kingdom Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University ’ s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries © United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) 2016 The moral rights of the authors have been asserted First Edition published in 2016 Impression: 1 Some rights reserved. This is an open access publication. 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Enquiries concerning use outside the terms of the Creative Commons licence should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the above address or to academic.permissions@oup.com. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Control Number: 2015949595 ISBN 978 – 0 – 19 – 874479 – 5 Printed in Great Britain by Clays Ltd, St Ives plc Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials contained in any third party website referenced in this work. OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 10/2/2016, SPi Foreword Despite decades of research and advances in data and methodologies, meas- uring poverty and reconciling this with patterns of economic growth is a disputatious issue. This contentiousness and the fact that poverty remains widespread in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) charged UNU-WIDER to launch in 2011 a major research project — the Growth and Poverty Project (GAPP) — to re-examine SSA ’ s growth, poverty, and inequality trends with three main goals in mind. First, develop new tools to measure monetary poverty in consistent and comparable ways, and make these tools accessible to scholars and analysts in Africa, other developing regions, and beyond. Second, under- take detailed case studies of sixteen of the twenty-four most populous coun- tries in SSA (covering no less than 73.8 per cent of the population in SSA) to measure poverty trends, and ‘ triangulate ’ these with other development indi- cators. Third, develop a macro – micro analytical framework to conduct detailed research in countries where poverty and economic growth trends appear to be inconsistent. This book holds the essential country-level harvest of this large, multi- country, multi-discipline research project brought to the reader in a con- densed form together with a comprehensive synthesis to explore the depths of the unfolding story of the growth – poverty nexus in SSA and to absorb the policy implications. The project team consisted of leading international experts and UNU-WIDER researchers along with some of the African contin- ent ’ s best researchers and data analysts. I hereby sincerely express my appre- ciation and admiration of the academic and analytical skills of this team and the detailed knowledge of the case countries brought out so clearly in this volume. Our profession does indeed have something sensible to contribute — both in recognizing that growth is in many cases translated into poverty reduction in African countries and in helping to understand why this link is sometimes not as robust as desirable. UNU-WIDER gratefully acknowledges the Special Programme Contribution (SPC) by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland for this project and the regular core fi nancial contributions made to its research programme from the governments of Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Finn Tarp Helsinki, January 2016 Acknowledgements UNU-WIDER ’ s Growth and Poverty Project (GAPP) was implemented between 2012 and 2014 and brought together a highly quali fi ed team of more than forty researchers from Africa and beyond. Without their dedication and pro- fessional competence, this book would not have been possible. We wish to express our sincere appreciation to these country teams who produced the case studies in this book. Putting together a volume such as this one is no easy undertaking; and we wish to express our appreciation for all of the high-level academic input, together with the copious goodwill and patience — which were much needed when doing the original groundwork followed by numer- ous revisions and updates of the individual chapters. A series of intensive planning meetings, involving many of the authors, helped shape the project; and results were presented at several UNU-WIDER development conferences and many other occasions across African countries. We are grateful to all of those who offered critique and most helpful com- ments. They include Oxford University Press ’ s Economics Commissioning Editor Adam Swallow and his team, as well as three anonymous referees. Your efforts were essential in helping to sharpen our research questions and approach to addressing one of the most intricate challenges facing the devel- opment profession, the African growth renaissance and its impact on poverty reduction. UNU-WIDER and its dedicated staff provided steady support, including research assistance, which goes far beyond the normal call of duty. Particular thanks go to Dominik Etienne for excellent programming; Anne Ruohonen for consistent project assistance; Lorraine Telfer-Taivainen for all of the careful publication support, including the many contacts with OUP; and Lisa Winkler and the group of copy-editors for helping to put out the many UNU-WIDER working papers produced during the course of the project. The research project — Reconciling Africa ’ s Growth, Poverty, and Inequality Trends — was generously supported by the governments of Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, with a special project contribution add- itionally provided by the Finnish government. UNU-WIDER gratefully acknowledges this vital research funding. It is our hope that the volume will be of relevance to all of those struggling to end poverty in Africa. Channing Arndt, Andy McKay, and Finn Tarp Helsinki, January 2016 Contents List of Figures xi List of Tables xv List of Boxes xxi List of Abbreviations xxiii Notes on Contributors xxvii 1. Growth and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa 1 Channing Arndt, Andy McKay, and Finn Tarp 2. Synthesis: Two Cheers for the African Growth Renaissance (but not Three) 11 Channing Arndt, Andy McKay, and Finn Tarp Part 1. Rapid Growth and Rapid Poverty Reduction 3. Poverty in Ethiopia, 2000 – 11: Welfare Improvements in a Changing Economic Landscape 43 David Stifel and Tassew Woldehanna 4. Ghana: Poverty Reduction over Thirty Years 69 Andy McKay, Jukka Pirttilä, and Finn Tarp 5. Did Rapid Smallholder-Led Agricultural Growth Fail to Reduce Rural Poverty? Making Sense of Malawi ’ s Poverty Puzzle 89 Karl Pauw, Ulrik Beck, and Richard Mussa 6. Growth, Poverty Reduction, and Inequality in Rwanda 112 Andy McKay and Marijke Verpoorten 7. Poverty and its Dynamics in Uganda: Explorations Using a New Set of Poverty Lines 137 Bjorn Van Campenhout, Haruna Sekabira, and Dede Houeto Aduayom Part 2. Rapid Growth but Limited Poverty Reduction 8. Burkina Faso: Shipping around the Malthusian Trap 163 Michael Grimm, Claude Wetta, and Aude Nikiema 9. Mozambique: Off-track or Temporarily Sidelined? 190 Channing Arndt, Sam Jones, and Finn Tarp 10. Spatial and Temporal Multidimensional Poverty in Nigeria 218 Olu Ajakaiye, Afeikhena T. Jerome, Olanrewaju Olaniyan, Kristi Mahrt, and Olufunke A. Alaba 11. Growth and Poverty Reduction in Tanzania 238 Channing Arndt, Lionel Demery, Andy McKay, and Finn Tarp 12. Assessing Progress in Welfare Improvements in Zambia: A Multidimensional Approach 263 Gibson Masumbu and Kristi Mahrt Part 3. Uninspiring/Negative Growth and Poverty Reduction 13. Slow Progress in Growth and Poverty Reduction in Cameroon 293 Samuel Fambon, Andy McKay, Joseph-Pierre Timnou, Olive Stéphanie Kouakep, Anaclet Désiré Dzossa, and Romain Tchakoute Ngoho 14. The Fall of the Elephant: Two Decades of Poverty Increase in Côte d ’ Ivoire, 1988 – 2008 318 Denis Cogneau, Kenneth Houngbedji, and Sandrine Mesplé-Somps 15. Incomes, Inequality, and Poverty in Kenya: A Long-Term Perspective 343 Arne Bigsten, Damiano Kulundu Manda, Germano Mwabu, and Anthony Wambugu 16. Utility-Consistent Poverty in Madagascar, 2001 – 10: Snapshots in the Presence of Multiple Economy-Wide Shocks 370 David Stifel, Tiaray Raza fi manantena, and Faly Rakotomanana 17. Poverty, Inequality, and Prices in Post-Apartheid South Africa 393 Murray Leibbrandt, Arden Finn, and Morné Oosthuizen Part 4. Low-Information Countries 18. Growth and Poverty in the Democratic Republic of Congo: 2001 through 2013 421 Malokele Nanivazo and Kristi Mahrt Index 447 Contents x List of Figures 1.1. Under- fi ve mortality by major world region, 1980 – 2013 5 1.2. Projected population growth for China, India, and sub-Saharan Africa, 2010 – 50 7 1.3. Household fi nal consumption expenditure per capita for sub-Saharan Africa, 1981 – 2013 (constant 2005 US$) 8 3.1. Poverty incidence curves, Ethiopia 2000 – 11 50 3.2. Poverty incidence curves, Ethiopia 2000 – 11 51 3.3. Cereal production, Ethiopia 2000 – 11 56 3.4. Annual infant mortality rates, Ethiopia 1996 – 2010 60 3.A1. Test of second-order dominance, Ethiopia 2000 – 11 65 3.A2. Test of third-order dominance, Ethiopia 2000 – 11 65 4.1. Trends in economic growth, 1960 – 2012 73 4.2. In fl ation in Ghana, 1990 – 2014 76 4.3. Comparison of food price in fl ation and overall price in fl ation 76 4.4. Growth incidence curve for Ghana, 1991/2 – 2005/6 78 4.5. Growth incidence curve for Ghana, 2005/6 − 12/13 79 5.1. Maize yields by region: Smallholder summer harvest, 2000/1 – 11/12 92 5.2. Of fi cial poverty headcount rates, 1997/8 – 2010/11 93 5.3. Consumption distribution functions and poverty estimates 105 6.1. Evolution of real per capita GDP in Rwanda, constant local currency units 113 6.2. Growth incidence curves for Rwanda 122 6.3. Pattern of poverty in Rwanda by district, 2010 – 11 123 6.4. Changes in poverty in Rwanda between 2005/6 and 2010/11, by district 124 6.5. Scatterplots of 2008 values of income and land against their 2002 values 127 6.6. Self-reported reasons for social mobility between ubudehe categories 129 7.1. Regional distribution of households in different poverty dynamics categories 147 7.2. Time to fetch water in 2005/6 and poverty dynamics 148 7.3. Household size and child dependency ratios in 2005/6 150 7.4. Distance (in kilometres) to health infrastructure in 2005/6 154 7.5. Average number of days per year inactive due to illness reported in 2005/6 154 7.6. Coping with adverse shocks reported in 2005/6 156 8.1. GDP per capita constant prices 165 8.2. Sectoral GDP 175 8.3. Sectoral GDP per capita 176 8.4. In fl ation of food crops compared to the CPI in the long run 181 8.5. Food imports and population growth 184 9.1. Average number of consumer goods (out of a maximum of eight) owned by households, 2002/3 – 8/9, by regions and rural/urban 195 9.2. Net enrolment rates, primary and secondary schooling by region, 2002/3 and 2008/9 197 9.3. Share of households with less than forty- fi ve minutes ’ walk to nearest primary health facility, 2002/3 and 2008/9 198 9.4. Share of households with access to a safe water source, 2002/3 and 2008/9 199 9.5. Trends in malnutrition across surveys, percentage of infants, 1996/7 – 2008/9 200 9.6. Comparison of malnutrition in IOF08 and MICS08 for survey overlap period, percentage of infants 201 9.7. International real price indices 206 9.8. Components of the Mozambique CPI 208 9.9. Percentile-speci fi c price indexes by percentiles of nominal per capita consumption 209 9.10. Evolution of poverty rates by scenario 212 10.1. Nigeria ’ s real GDP growth rate, 2004 – 12 220 10.2. Nigeria ’ s real sectoral GDP growth rates, 2004 – 11 221 10.3. Spatial FOD ranking and probability of net domination for national, sectoral, and zonal levels in 1999, 2003, and 2008 232 11.1. Growth of real local currency per capita GDP in Tanzania 241 11.2a. Growth incidence curves by strata, 1991/2 – 2000/1 251 11.2b. Growth incidence curves by strata, 2001 – 7 252 11.2c. Growth incidence curves by strata, 2007 – 11/12 253 11.3. Kernel density plots of the logarithm of consumption per adult, 2000/1 – 7 and 2007 – 11/12 254 12.1. GDP and GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$), 1960 – 2013 265 12.2. Value added as a percentage of GDP, 1965 – 2013 267 List of Figures xii 12.3. Deprivation by welfare indicator and area aggregate, per cent 275 13.1. GDP per capita of Cameroon in constant local currency values 295 13.2. Poverty incidence curve for Cameroon, 1996 – 2001 305 13.3. Poverty incidence curve for Cameroon, 2001 – 7 305 13.4. Cameroon growth incidence curve, 1996 – 2001 310 13.5. Cameroon growth incidence curve, 2001 – 7 310 14.1. GDP per capita and cash crop income, 1960 – 2010 322 14.2. Average height stature of males aged 20 – 59 years, 1900 – 90 323 14.3. GDP per capita, cash crop income, and oil income, 1988 – 2008 326 14.4. Cumulative distribution function of consumption per capita across time 328 14.5. Growth incidence curves 329 14.6. Civil con fl ict 335 14.A1. Real producer prices for cash crops 339 14.A2. Cocoa, coffee, and cotton output 339 15.1. Incomes by source, per cent 348 15.2. Percentage distribution of income by race 349 15.3. Gini coef fi cients, 1914 – 76 349 15.4. Income poverty in Kenya (Sen ’ s Index), 1914 – 76 350 15.5. Relative factor endowments in Kenya, 1964 – 2000 351 15.6. Indexes of real returns to factors in Kenya, 1964 – 2000 352 15.7. Factor proportions, 1994 – 2011 356 16.1. Per capita consumption and GDP since independence in Madagascar 374 16.2. Poverty incidence curves, Madagascar, 2001 – 10 380 16.3. Poverty incidence curves, Madagascar, 2001 – 10 381 16.4. Poverty and real per capita GDP, Madagascar, 2001 – 10 384 16.5. Poverty and real GDP by sector, Madagascar, 2001 – 10 385 16.6. Annual infant mortality rates, Madagascar, 2000 – 8 389 17.1. Distributions of income, 1993, 2000, and 2010 397 17.2. Lorenz curves, 1993, 2000, and 2010 399 17.3. Share of household income from various sources, 2008 400 17.4. Impact of prices on poverty as demonstrated by CDFs 405 17.5. Impact of prices on inequality as demonstrated by Lorenz curves 407 17.6. Poor households ’ exposure to high-in fl ation expenditure categories, 2005 – 10 410 18.1. Evolution of GDP and GDP per capita with marked regime changes and wars, 1960 – 2013 423 List of Figures xiii List of Tables 1.1. Average GDP per capita growth of the sixteen selected sub-Saharan African countries (annual percentage) in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s 3 3.1. Regional poverty lines, Ethiopia 2000 – 11 46 3.2. Monetary poverty in Ethiopia, 2000 – 11 49 3.3. Regional poverty in Ethiopia, 2000 – 11 52 3.4. Inequality in Ethiopia, 2000 – 11 54 3.5. Production and in fl ation in Ethiopia, 2000 – 11 55 3.6. Poverty in select rural communities in Ethiopia, 1994 – 2009 58 3.7. Stunting rates in Ethiopia, 2000 – 11 59 3.8. Net school enrolment rates in Ethiopia, 2000 – 11 60 3.9. Literacy rates in Ethiopia, 1998 – 2011 61 3.10. Access to public goods in Ethiopia, 2000 – 11 62 4.1. Growth rates of different national accounts aggregates 74 4.2. Real GDP growth, by expenditure category and sector, 1991, 1999, 2006, and 2013 75 4.3. Changes in national poverty headcount for Ghana, and elasticity calculations 78 4.4. Disaggregated poverty headcount data for Ghana 80 4.5. Poverty headcounts by main economic activity 82 4.6. Measures of inequality in Ghana, with a focus on south – north differences 83 4.7. Trends in some headline non-monetary indicators in Ghana 84 4.8. Child mortality by regions and education 85 4.9. School attendance by regions 86 5.1. Sectoral GDP growth rates and contributions to change in GDP, 2005 – 11 92 5.2. Of fi cial and revised CPI and in fl ation estimates 95 5.3. Food, non-food, and overall poverty lines for 2004/5 and 2010/11 101 5.4. Poverty headcount rates and changes in poverty between 2004/5 and 2010/11 103 5.5. Changes in subjective well-being, 2004/5 – 10/11 107 6.1. Selected non-monetary indicators for Rwanda 116 6.2. The ratio of indicators between the richest 20 per cent and the poorest 20 per cent of the sample population 118 6.3. Consumption and consumption poverty by province 120 6.4. Mobility matrix of self-reported social categories 128 6.5. Happiness, and mean income, assets, and income change by happiness 130 7.1. Of fi cial poverty headcounts, 2002 – 12 140 7.2. Poverty headcounts, 2002 – 12, using six spatial domains 144 7.3. Marital status in UNPS 2005/6 and subsequent poverty dynamics 151 7.4. Most important source of earnings in UNPS 2005/6 and subsequent poverty dynamics 152 7.5. Education of household head in UNPS 2005/6 and subsequent poverty dynamics 153 7.6. Shocks experience in the previous fi ve years as reported in UNPS 2005/6 and subsequent poverty dynamics 155 8.1. Income, income inequality, and income poverty, 1994 – 2003 168 8.2. Decomposition of the change in the national headcount index, Δ P0, Burkina Faso, 1994 – 2003 171 8.3. Income, income inequality, and income poverty, 2003 – 9 173 8.4. Rural and urban population growth 176 8.5. Employment patterns of population aged 15 to 64 (shares), 1994 – 2007 178 8.6. Cereal and cotton production, 1995 – 2010 179 8.7. Budget shares and farmers ’ market integration 182 8.8. Budget shares of general CPI 183 8.9. Indicators of children ’ s malnutrition and mortality, 1993 – 2010 186 9.1. Of fi cial consumption poverty headcounts 192 9.2. Indicators of housing quality, 2002/3 and 2008/9, percentage of households 194 9.3. Ownership of consumer durables, 2002/3 and 2008/9, percentage of households 195 9.4. Aggregate production trends for food crops 204 9.5. Total maize production by data source (thousands of tonnes) 204 9.6. Growth in components of GDP 2003/9 for national accounts and for model 210 9.7. Actual and projected poverty rates 211 10.1. Incidence of poverty by sector and zones, 1980 – 2010, per cent 222 10.2. Inequality trend by area of residence and zones, 1980 – 2010 223 List of Tables xvi 10.3. Income shares distribution, 1986 – 2010 223 10.4. Proportion of households not deprived, by welfare indicator and year 228 10.5. Percentage distribution of households by number of deprivations 229 10.6. 1999 DHS static spatial FOD comparisons 230 10.7. 1999 DHS bootstrap spatial FOD comparisons (probabilities) 230 10.8. 2003 DHS static spatial FOD comparisons 230 10.9. 2003 DHS bootstrap spatial FOD comparisons (probabilities) 231 10.10. 2008 DHS static spatial FOD comparisons 231 10.11. 2008 DHS bootstrap spatial FOD comparisons (probabilities) 231 10.12. Temporal net FOD comparisons, DHS (probabilities) 233 11.1. Real GDP growth, by expenditure category and sector, 1992, 2001, 2007, and 2012 242 11.2. Trends in poverty headcounts and growth elasticities of poverty reduction 244 11.3. Poverty headcounts and Gini coef fi cients for Tanzania 250 11.4. Food shares in Tanzania, 2007 and 2011/12 256 11.5. Households not deprived by welfare indicator, per cent 257 11.6. Children under fi ve (0 – 4 years) not deprived by welfare indicator, per cent 259 12.1. Key macroeconomic indicators, annual averages, 1964 – 2011 266 12.2. Poverty headcount rates by area, 1991 – 2010 268 12.3. Poverty headcount rates by stratum, 1996 – 2010 269 12.4. Employment by sector, 2012, per cent 270 12.5. FOD indicators 274 12.6. Per cent of households deprived by indicator and by area 276 12.7. Households by number of deprivations in the fi ve indicators in 2010 and change from 1996, per cent 278 12.8. Temporal net FOD comparisons by aggregate area and province (probabilities) 279 12.9. Temporal net FOD comparisons by urban and rural strata (probabilities) 280 12.10. Bootstrap spatial FOD comparisons (probabilities), 1996 281 12.11. Bootstrap spatial FOD comparisons (probabilities), 2010 283 12.12. Area rankings by probability of net domination 284 12.13. Strata rankings by probability of net domination 285 13.1. Contribution of factors to growth in Cameroon 300 13.2. Average consumption in Cameroon in ECAM surveys 303 13.3. Trends in monetary poverty in Cameroon, 1996 – 2007 304 List of Tables xvii 13.4. Trends in monetary poverty in urban and rural areas, 1996 – 2007 306 13.5. Poverty in Cameroon by region 307 13.6. Trends in inequality in Cameroon, 1996 – 2007 309 13.7. Summary national-level indicators from DHS surveys 311 13.8. Disaggregated under- fi ve mortality rates for Cameroon 312 13.9. Percentage of under-three-year-olds with height-for-age Z score less than − 2 313 13.10. Percentage of respondents with secondary education or above 314 14.1. Daily consumption per capita and poverty measures over time across regions, 1988 – 2008 327 14.2. Poverty measures by socioeconomic status of the household head 331 14.3. Poverty measures in households headed by a farmer 333 14.4. Decomposition of changes in poverty headcount, 1988 – 2008 333 14.A1. School net attendance rates over time 337 14.A2. Durable goods ownership 338 15.1. Growth rates (per cent) for 1997 – 2002 using 1982 and 2001 prices 354 15.2. GDP growth in new and old series, 1994 – 2012 355 15.3. Labour income share in GDP, 1976 – 2012 358 15.4. Growth of formal and informal employment and real earnings of formal labour, 1994 – 2012 358 15.5. Labour earnings in the formal and informal sectors (KSh per month), 1998/9 – 2005/6 359 15.6. Absolute poverty measures (per cent) for Kenya, 1994 – 2005 361 15.7. Regional welfare inequality (Gini coef fi cient) in Kenya, 1994 – 2005 362 15.8. Average annual expenditure of rural and urban residents in Kenya, 1994 – 2005 362 15.9. Health poverty 363 15.10. Percentage of people without access to improved drinking water 364 15.11. Percentage of children under fi ve years classi fi ed as malnourished, 1993 – 2008 364 15.12. Indicators of access to education 365 15.13. Literacy rates 365 16.1. Original and utility-consistent (UC) poverty lines, Madagascar, 2001 – 10 372 16.2. Production and in fl ation in Madagascar, 2001 – 10 376 16.3. Monetary poverty in Madagascar, 2001 – 10 379 16.4. Regional poverty in Madagascar, 2001 – 10 382 16.5. Inequality in Madagascar, 2001 – 10 383 List of Tables xviii 16.6. Sectoral distribution of employment and the poor in Madagascar, 2001 – 10 386 16.7. Urban labour poverty and rural household consumption in Madagascar, 2001 – 10 387 16.8. Stunting rates in Madagascar 388 16.9. Net schooling enrolment rates in Madagascar, 2001 – 10 390 17.1. South African macroeconomic trends, 1993 – 2012 394 17.2. Distributional effects of in fl ation inequality, 2005 – 10 409 17.3. Patterns of in fl ation, 2000 – 13 411 18.1. Consumption poverty headcount in 2005 and 2012, per cent 426 18.2. Children 0 – 17 not deprived by welfare indicator, per cent 431 18.3. Children under fi ve not underweight, stunted, or wasting, by gender, per cent 432 18.4. Children 7 – 17 who have attended or are currently attending at least primary school, by gender (poverty) 433 18.5. Children 0 – 17 by number of deprivations in the fi ve indicators in 2013 (per cent) and change from 2007 435 18.6. Temporal net FOD comparisons (bootstrap probabilities) 436 18.7. 2007 Bootstrap spatial FOD comparisons, children 0 – 17 (probabilities) 438 18.8. 2013 Bootstrap spatial FOD comparisons, children 0 – 17 (probabilities) 439 18.9. 2007, 2010, and 2013 area rankings by probability of net domination, children 0 – 17 442 18.10. 2001, 2007, 2010, and 2013 area rankings by probability of net domination, children under fi ve 442 xix List of Tables