OFFICIAL Wales and Western Regional Traction Decarbonisation St rategy Version 1. 0 February 2022 OFFICIAL CONTENTS 01 E x e c u t i v e S um m a r y 1 02 Strategic Context 6 03 Multi - criteria Assessment 10 04 Wales & Borders 13 05 Western 33 06 Recommendations 60 07 Summary 63 08 Appendices 65 1 OFFICIAL 01 E x e c u t i v e S um m a r y In March 2021 Greater Western and Wales Programme Board approved the proposal to undertake a Regional Traction Decarbonisation S trategy. The strategy is required in order to set out the vision for how the region can contribute to the legislative obligation to end the UK’s contribution to climate change by 2050 The objective of the traction decarbonisation strategy is: Elimination of all d iesel - powered passenger and freight trains operating in Wales & Western region in support of the UK government legislative requirement and Welsh Government legal target for a net - zero carbon transport system by 2050 The strategy aims to set out a programme for traction decarbonisation by prioritising of each section of route for decarbonisation based on benefits and efficiencies and compiling these into tranches for development and delivery. The strategy builds on pre vious work including the Western Electrification Deferrals Strategic Advice and the Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy Interim Programme Business Cas e : • In June 2020 Western Strategic Planning submitted Western Electrification Deferrals Strategic Advice to the DfT. This considered next steps for the deferred elements of the Great Western Electrification Programme (GWEP). It recommended progression of Didco t Parkway to Oxford, Chippenham East to Bristol Temple Meads, Bristol Parkway to Bristol Temple Meads , and Acton to Willesden as priority electrification schemes. It recommended progression of the Thames Valley Branches scheme as a priority decarbonisation scheme. • In October 2020 the Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy (TDNS) Interim Programme Business Case was published, which includes a potential programme for national traction decarbonisation. The TDNS set out a programme view for Wales and Western that supports the Western Electrification Deferrals recommendations as the highest priorities. Each region has undertaken its own strategy to develop and refine the TDNS national programme, which is necessarily high level and lacks granularity including o n regional service development and rolling stock strategies . This strategy represents that analysis for Western Route and with the parallel activity for Wales Route forms the Wales and Western Traction Decarbonisation Strategy. Purpose The purpose of this strategy is to: - Provide a roadmap for the region and industry establish ing a strategic baseline position for achievi ng traction decarbonisation 2 OFFICIAL - Inform emerging r ail fleet strategies by setting out the regional position on decarbonisation priorities - Support development of traction decarbonisation schemes as soon as funding becomes available - Allow engagement with industr y partners and third parties on developing and delivering traction decarbonisation benefits Engagement This strategy was developed collaboratively under the leadership of the Wales and Western Strategic Planning teams with input from experts within and bey ond the region and from operators. Where route sections are adjacent to or cross regional boundaries the strategy aligns to adjacent regions’ strategies. The strategy was informed by operator views of fleet strategy and can inform those as they mature. Met hod All route sections within the region were subject to multi - criteria assessment considering the benefits associated with decarbonisation and the ease of implementation. A score was calculated for each route section, allowing ranking and prioritisation for decarbonisation. Groups of priorities were assembled into phases form ing a programme allowing removal of all diesel trains operating in Wales & Western by 2050. This strategy considers best evidence on benefits and deliverability of decarbonisation Evidence is directed towards achieving decarbonisation rather than any spec ific mode (e.g. use of fully electric trains through full line of route electrification). The benefits identified apply regardless of traction mode and therefore stand as sound strategic bases as the vision for implementation of decarbonisation is develope d. Overview of recommendations – Wales The recommendations for Wales consider the expansive rolling stock replacement programme which Transport for Wales ( TfW ) has commenced, along with future aspirations and political priorities identified in the Wales N ational Transport Plan (Llwybr Newydd) and recommendations set out in the Union Connectivity Review. We have collaborated with TfW who are in the process of creating a rolling stock decarbonisation strategy , once t heir strategy is complete we w ill work together to align both priorities. Route sections are split into broad tranches depending on which likely decarbonisation solution would be appropriate, as shown in Figure 1 3 OFFICIAL Figure 1 : Wales & Borders traction decarbonisation tranches Overview of recommendations – Western The first , highest priority tranche includes the schemes that were part of the Great Western Electrification Programme (GWEp) – Acton to Willesden, Didcot to Oxford, Chippenham to Bristol Temple Meads, and Bristol Parkway to Bristol Temple Meads. T hese route sections remain the number one pr iority for Western Route decarbonisation. The next priority tranche s cover the key mainline routes throughout Western, and link with the priorit y routes in the Central and West Coast South and Southern regions’ d ecarbonisation s trateg ies . The Thames Valleys branches comprise the next priority tranche , combined together based on their potential for a single rolling stock solution . The 4 OFFICIAL later tranche s include most of the railway in Devon and Cornwall, again with proximate route sections comb ined, with their prioritisation reflecting the identified benefits and the likely need to follow earlier route sections given interlinked services The recommended Western tranches are shown in Figure 2 Figure 2 : Western traction decarbonisation tranches Next steps Development will involve more detailed understanding of traction technology, industry rolling stock strategy , and financial constraints Elements of the strategy are likely to change In particular the rapid development of non - diesel traction technologies could influence rolling stock strategy and the refore the sequencing of decarbonisation schemes in the latter part of the recommended programme. Th e strategy should be revisited and updated as these factors mature. The prog ramme of tranches identified in this strategy must be coordinated with the national decarbonisation programme, particularly where schemes cross regional boundaries. This will make sure that s upply chain resources are deployed efficiently across the networ k – i ncluding from non - Network Rail projects such as electrification of the divested Core Valley Lines in South Wales – so that c ross - boundary passenger and freight services can be efficiently decarbonised The strategy establishes a roadmap to removal of diesel trains. Further development and refinement is inevitable, but the establishment of this programme vision is critical. The most confidence and development focus must be on the priority tranches , which can now be developed with their place in the regional programme understood. 5 OFFICIAL A series of recommend ations are made to progress the traction decarbonisation strategy. These comprise three categories: Traction choice; Integrated planning; and Benefits and costs , which are summarised: - Traction choi ce – Undertake work to allow informed choice on fundament of rolling stock strategy – single or multi traction mode (five recommendations) - Integrated planning – Leverage influence and opportunities by working across regions and industry and with potential promoters and funders of decarbonisation including the potential for blended funding ( ten recommendations) - Benefits and costs – Quantify day one realisable benefits of Tranche 0 schemes to begin re - building case for further investment ( three recommendation s) 6 OFFICIAL 02 Strategic Context Climate change is one of the most significant challenge facing all societies and economies. The UK Government has legislated to achieve net zero by 2050 with Welsh Government setting a similar legal target To achieve net zero t otal transport emissions will need to fall by over 75% by 2050 Domestic transport emissions must fall to near zero , including a 65 - 76% fall by 2035. Rail will need to achieve net zero ( Net Zero Strategy, HMG, October 2021) Rail has a major role to play in supporting transport decarbonisation Rail already contributes less than 2% of transport emissions and is the most sustainable mode for transporting people and goods long distances at high speeds. The first way in which r ai l can support decarbonisation is through modal shift to rail from other higher - emitting modes of transport. Rail has one of the lowest emissions per passenger rates of all transport modes and enables a 76% emissions reduction for freight compared with road ( TDNS Interim Programme Business case ). Industry wide changes are required to make rail the mode of choice, alongside enhanced capability for passenger and freight growth to enable modal shift. The second way in which rail can support decarbonisation is through removal of diesel trains by replacing them with lower - emitting, net zero trains. Approximately two - thirds of railway direct emissions originate from the use of diesel traction. Reduction has been achieved through recent electrification schemes and the introduction of more environmentally friendly rolling stock. The Net Zero Strategy (HMG, October 2021) recognises that a ‘sustained, long - term programme of investment in rail electrification, supported by deployment of battery and hydrogen - powered trains’ is required. This strategy can be used by funders and the industry to inform decis ions on removing diesel units from the network, achieving net zero legislative targets, identifying a capital works programme to deliver this , and supporting other programmes such as rolling stock and depot/stabling strategies. Traction mode E lectric, battery and hydrogen powered traction modes are likely all to have a role to play in the region reaching net zero. These modes possess different technical capabilities ( Figure 3 ) , meaning that their suitability changes depending upon the type of rail service required 7 OFFICIAL Figure 3 : C apabilities of different traction technologies (TDNS) The Rail Industry Decarbonisation Taskforce concluded that battery and hydrogen traction – unlike electric – are unlikely to provide the required energy needs of long - distance intercity and freight services Therefore full or partial electrification will play a vital role in decarbonisation. Th is includes for th e Hendy tail GWEp schemes ( Acton to Willesden, Didcot to Oxford, Chippenham to Bristol and Filton to Bristol Temple Meads ). The ability to deliver benefits with existing stock and the close interfac e with existing electrified services means that electrification is recommended for these sections. However, electric traction has drawbacks including high capital cost and a large volume of fixed infrastructure and is not suitable or required for all route s. F uture decarbonised fleet s will be less reliant on network - wide electrification. Modular concepts with more than one traction mode as well as trains with an interchangeable power source that can take advantage of developing technologies offer alternatives to electric traction The importance of developing a fleet strategy that does not rely on full electrification has grown with the rapid development of battery and hydrogen technolog ies A modular fleet allows for flexibility to change traction based on development and future phasing of traction technology. T his can also deliver passenger benefits including ret ention or enhancement of service patterns that would otherwise be constrained by traction mode. Hybrid rolling stock can allow decarboni sation without the need for significant investment in Overhead Line Equipment (OLE), which is the current favorable method for decarbonisation, especially for complex track areas, freight, and regional routes. Throughout this document reference has been ma de to bi - mode or modular rolling stock. B i - mode or modular refers to rolling stock that can take power from the 25kV OLE or from an independent source ( e.g., diesel, battery, hydrogen, or other form of propulsion). 8 OFFICIAL This strategy reflects previous work how t raction modes may be utilised for Wales & Borders route sections and gives recommendations for electrified and alternative decarbonisation solutions for each route section. For Western route sections beyond the Tranche 0, Hendy tail recommendations focus on the priority for removing diesel traction for each route section, rather than a specific mode. However, route specific issues and opportunities are considered, such as for alternative traction modes on branch lines in the Thames Valley and South West. D etailed assessment of the capabilities and whole life costs and benefits of different traction modes is a key recommendation of the strategy. Train Fleet The size and composition of existing fleets operating in the region is a key driver for the regional decarbonisation strategy Where decarbonisation requires significant change to or replacement of rolling stock the most efficient point to deliver decarbon isation is when existing stock requires replacement. Passenger rolling stock in Wales & Western varies in age from the nearly new Class 80 X that operate GWR services out of London Paddington to the forty year old Class 15X/16 X diesels that run regional and local services , and the fifty year old HSTs Passenger services currently operating in the region are shown in Table 1 : P assenger rolling stock operating in Wales & Western Table 1 Transport for Wales are working on a high - level rolling stock strategy that will complement this strategy. GWR are also developing a strategy to replace aging diesels and realise decarbonisation opportunities. Both strategies will benefit from the recommendat ions of the regional decarbonisation strategy. Bi - mode or Modular Passenger Rolling Stock Rolling stock Operator(s) Type Construction Class 43 (HST) XC Diesel locomotive 1970s Class 57 (Sleeper) GWR Diesel locomotive 1960s Class 67 + Mk IV TfW Diesel locomotive 1990s Class 150 GWR & TfW DMU 1980s Class 153 TfW DMU 19 80s Class 158 GWR & TfW DMU 1990s Class 159 SWR DMU 1990s Class 16X GWR & Chiltern DMU 1990s Class 17 0 XC, TfW & WMT DMU 1990s Class 172 Chiltern DMU 2010s Class 175 TfW DMU 2000s Class 196 WMT DMU 2020s Class 197 (Civity) TfW DMU 2020s 9 OFFICIAL Class 22X (Voyager) XC & Avanti DMU 2000s Class 230 TfW Bi - mode 2020s Class 231 TfW DMU 2020s Class 25 5 (HST) GWR DMU 1970s Class 387 GWR EMU 2010s Class 398 TfW Bi - mode 2020s Class 756 TfW Tri - mode 2020s Class 769 TfW DMU 1980s Class 80X GWR & Avanti Bi - mode 2010s Table 1 : P assenger rolling stock operating in Wales & Western Freight Rolling Stock Freight rolling stock is also an important strategic driver. However, t here are more challenges when it comes to freight locomotives since there is currently no diesel - free traction freight locomotive in operation at scale Th erefore, freight decarbonisation in has been seen as linked to full electr ification. Rapidly emerging technology may also make alternative traction modes suitable for portions of some freight journeys, although it remains likely that substantial electrification will be required as part of the freight decarbonisation solution Table 2 shows the freight locomotive classes currently operating in Wales & Western. Train Operator(s) Type Construction Class 37 ROG Diesel locomotive 1960s Class 47 ROG Diesel locomotive 1960s Class 56 Colas Diesel locomotive 1970s Class 60 DBC & DCR Diesel locomotive 1990s Class 66 DBC, FLIM, DRS, FLHH, GBRf Diesel locomotive 1990s – 2010s Class 70 FLIM & Colas Diesel locomotive 2010s Table 2 : Freight locomotives operating in Wales & Western 10 OFFICIAL 03 Multi - c riteria A ssessment Route sections were prioritised by scoring against a multi - criteria assessment framework adopted and improved work carried out in other regions. Criteria were grouped and weighted within two over - arching categories: Decarbonisation benefits; and Deployment effi ciencies. Both th e decarbonisation benefit and dep loyment efficiency categories were given equal weighting ( Figure 4 : M ulti - criteria a ssessment categories and weightings Figure 4 ) Decarbonisation benefits quantify the potential value of decarbonising each route section as w ell as the contribution to wider decarbonisation. Deployment efficiencies quantify integration with power and signalling systems, and potential alignment with rolling stock changes. The criteria given highest weightings were diesel vehicle miles removed ( benefits) and rolling stock lifespan (efficiencies). Scores between 1 and 5 were assigned for each route section for all criteria resulting in a single score indicating the priority for decarbonisation. Figure 4 : M ulti - criteria a ssessment categories and weightings 11 OFFICIAL The output of a ranked list of all route sections is a valuable strategic output in itself. It also allowed the identification of prioritised tranche s for development and delivery. Tranche s were identified and assembled according to priority route sections and their inter - dependencies. This means that not all route sections within a tranche are of the same priority score, some are grouped for deliverability and interdependency of decarbonisation benefits. The multi - criteria assessment process was developed with stakeholders as part of the consultation with passenger and freight operators to create this strategy Explanation of c riteria: Decarbonisation b enefits 1. Passenger diesel vehicle miles removed per single track mile decarbonised To calculate the passenger diesel vehicle mile removed per single track mile for each decarbonised rout e section the annual vehicle mil eage over that route section w as divided by the number of track miles. This is a key factor in understanding decarbonisation benefits and is a reliable proxy for overall benefits. Essentially it identifies where decarbonisation could have the biggest impact on removal of miles under diesel traction. Clearly realising decarbonisation benefits requires rolling stock and associated infrastructure changes 2. Freight d ecarbonisation p otential Using information provided by the Wales and Western freight team analysis of all freight services that start or end within the region was undertaken to determine if decarbonisation of a route could change the traction used by a freight service . The volume of freight carried on each route section was also assessed with higher volume routes scoring higher. This criterion reflects the critical importance of f reight decarbonisation and the need to consider it as a major driver of the strategy. It is noted that freight may be more adaptable than passenger trains given the opportunity to change loco motives en route , although this carries cost and capacity penalties 3. Annual p assenger impact Annual passenger numbers for each route section were used to score each route. Passengers experience numerous direct benefits from decarbonisation, but this criterion also reflects those route sections that are busiest and have the greatest strategic significance and thereby is another useful proxy for overall decarbonisation benefits 4. Dependency on d ecarbonising o ther r outes to r ealise b enefits To cal culate the dependency for achieving benefits on decarboni sation elsewhere on the network a qualitative analysis rewarded those route sections that would allow removal 12 OFFICIAL of diesel trains with no other decarbonisation Those requiring decarbonisation of numerous additional areas scored lowest. This criterion reflects where investment in decarbonisation could allow removal of diesel trains in isolation and without change to service gr oups. 5. Diversionary r oute c apability Each route section was analys ed to understand whether it could be used for diversions for current single traction mode passenger or f reight flows Diversionary routes are an important consideration for single traction - mode decarbonisation in particular because lack of diversion ary capability can cause severe problems for passengers and freight users, including making freight services unviable Deployment effic iencies 1. Rolling s tock l ifespan The assumed remaining service life of the most common type of rolling stock on each route section was used to score route sections with those requiring replacement soonest scoring highest Rolling stock lifespan is a key decarbonisation driver because the point of rolling stock change is the major opportunity to remove diesel traction. Scoring reflects the urgency of having a viable decarbonisation for those route sections where the majority of rolling stock is due for replacement soon. 2. Signalling Schemes Each route was given a score based on the readiness of the signalling system for the introduction of decarbonised traction Route sections w here appropriate signalling is already in place scored highest, followed by those where resignalling is planned. This reflects both the efficiency of realising decarbonisation benefits and also the urgency of planning schemes to align with major signalling works. This criterion is most applicable to electrification and signalling immunisation. 3. Availability of power - supply / redundancy The availability of power supply is an important factor in delivering decarbonisation, particularly electrification. Each route is scored based on the current known redundancy of power supply and the ease of securing additional power supply Achieving a Na tional Grid power supply point is costly and has a long lead time Power supply remains an important consideration for battery charging and potentially for hydrogen generation Route sections where alternative technology is suggested (Wales) score high ly because the re is less power supply dependency , therefore areas which have sufficient power supply also scored highly. 13 OFFICIAL 0 4 W ales & Borders Route Context The Wales & Borders route accommodates a range of urban, long - distance, rural and freight services . These flows are a mix of localised and cross boundary into key markets such as the South West , the Midlands and North West England. The route is largely unelectrified with the only 25kv overhead line electrifica tion on the South Wales Main Line between Cardiff Central through the Severn Tunnel to the route boundary at Pilning; as shown in Figure 5 . Electrification continues alo ng the Great Western Main Line to London Paddington, served by bi - mode Great Western Railway (GWR) services. Figure 5 : Wales & Borders existing electrification and freight only lines 14 OFFICIAL Due to the mix of operators and the introducti on of electrification in South Wales, there is not standardised rolling stock. Currently, most rolling stock apart from the GWR bi - mode fleet are diesel, however, Transport for Wales (TfW) has committed plans to improve services and introduce a largely new rolling stock fleet across Wales & Borders by 2024. Beyond this, Welsh Government policy continues to see rail as a driver of economic recovery and growth. The Welsh National Transport Plan, Llwybr Newdd, sets out a range of ambitious plans that would se e further transformation of the rail network and service provision across Wales & Borders, better connecting communities with employment, education, and social infrastructure, and contributing to reduction in carbon across the country. This will include par tial electrification on the divested Core Valley Lines (CVL) north of Cardiff served by a brand new bi - mode and tri - mode rolling stock fleet, with some services operating between the now divested CVL network and the national rail network. New modular rolli ng stock is also being introduced in South Wales area, with a ‘go anywhere’ diesel fleet being procured for the remaining services. This rolling stock procurement programme and TfW’s own rolling stock strategy currently being developed, will provide future options for further traction decarbonisation. Figure 6 : Total passenger vehicle diesel miles for each route section, Wales & Borders The recent transfer and divestment of the CVL to Welsh Government, and their programme of modernisation and enhancement of this part of the network has also seen development of supply chain capability. Specialist skills and employment provides 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 Passenger vehicle diesel miles per single line 15 OFFICIAL opportunity to continue roll - out further decarbonisation of the network. It is an ambition of Welsh Government to have a rolling programme of electrification following the CVL works to retain these skills in the South Wales area. In North Wales, Avanti West Coast wil l also be introducing a new bi - mode fleet for services between London Euston, Chester, Llandudno, Bangor and Holyhead. Prioritising the decarbonisation of services based exclusively on the distance they operate under electric traction could be misleading, as there are other important factors that can determine decarbonisation potential including freight power supply, diesel miles and diversionary route potential. Figure 6 provides a corresponding graph showing the Passenger Vehicle Diesel miles that could be decarbonised with the removal of diesel units. There are also other factors to consider. For example, services that operate cross - boundary into Western and North We st and Central need to be coordinated to allow the entire service group to be converted from diesel traction. Additionally, a service that only operates daily, weekly or a few times a day may not deliver the same magnitude of benefit as a service operating multiple times within an hour 16 OFFICIAL Results The approach taken to prioritise decarbonisation schemes across Wales & Borders has been to take the recommendations set out in the national Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy (TDNS) along with the multi - criteria assessment and looking at these as part of a system approach, taking consideration of the expansive rolling stock replacement programme which TfW has commenced, as well as the skill base being developed in South Wales during the Core Valley Lines modernisation. We also acknowledge the service groups which operate on the various lines in Wales and across the route boundaries, along with future aspirations and political priorities identified in the Wales National Transport Plan The lines of r oute were then split into broad tranches depending on which likely decarbonisation solution would be appropriate. Due to the absence of identified funding to develop or deliver any of these proposals, the tranches do not have specific timeframes associated with them and as such are flexible . Therefore, if further development takes place or funding is directed towards proposals that sit in either of the second tranches, then these could easily transition to an earlier phase. Further detail on each proposal i s explained below, however it is worth noting here that both ‘tranche 1’s’ have been proposed due to the committed rolling stock plans (where new rolling stock has already been procured) and existing development, along with identified priorities in the rec ent Union Connectivity Review findings. Figure 7 : Results of multi - c riteria assessment for each route section, Wales & Borders Chester to Llandudno Jcn Cardiff to Newport Newport to Severn Tunnel Junction Llandudno to Bleanau Ffestiniog Maesteg Branch Llandudno Jcn to Holyhead Wrexham to Bidston Shrewsbury to Chester Heart of Wales Newport to Shrewsbury STJ to Standish Jcn Shrewsbury to Crewe Pembroke Branch Cambrian Ebbw Vale Fishguard Branch Cardiff - Swansea Swansea to Milford Haven Vale of Glamorgan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Deployment Benefits Decarbonisation Benefits Multi - Criteria Outcome 17 OFFICIAL Figure 8 : Wales & Borders prioritised decarbonisation tranches 18 OFFICIAL Earlier candidates for electrification Figure 9 : Wales & Borders electrification tranche 1 OLE Tranche 1 • Chester to Llandudno Junction • Llandudno Junction to Holyhead • Cardiff to Swansea • Vale of Glamorgan