Industries without Smokestacks OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi UNU World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) was established by the United Nations University as its fi rst research and training centre and started work in Helsinki, Finland, in 1985. The mandate of the institute is to undertake applied research and policy analysis on structural changes affecting devel- oping and transitional economies, to provide a forum for the advocacy of policies leading to robust, equitable, and environmentally sustainable growth, and to pro- mote capacity strengthening and training in the fi eld of economic and social policy- making. Its work is carried out by staff researchers and visiting scholars in Helsinki and via networks of collaborating scholars and institutions around the world. United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) Katajanokanlaituri 6B, 00160 Helsinki, Finland www.wider.unu.edu OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi Industries without Smokestacks Industrialization in Africa Reconsidered Edited by Richard S. Newfarmer, John Page, and Finn Tarp A study prepared by the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) 1 OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi 3 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP, United Kingdom Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University ’ s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries © United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) 2018 UNU-WIDER, Katajanokanlaituri, 6B, 00160 Helsinki, Finland The moral rights of the authors have been asserted First Edition published in 2018 Impression: 1 Some rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, for commercial purposes without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press. This is an open access publication. Except where otherwise noted, this work is distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial- Share Alike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO), a copy of which is available at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/. Enquiries concerning use outside the terms of the Creative Commons licence should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the above address or to academic.permissions@oup.com. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Control Number: 2018947009 ISBN 978 – 0 – 19 – 882188 – 5 Printed and bound by CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials contained in any third party website referenced in this work. OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi Foreword Structural transformation in Africa is a hot topic. And the reason for this rising concern is clear. The movement of workers from low- to high- productivity employment has contributed far less to growth in Africa than in other fast-growing developing regions. Historically, industry — particularly manufacturing — is the sector which economies have relied on early in the process of structural transformation. However Africa ’ s experience with industrialization has been disappointing, causing observers to question the durability of its growth prospects. Concurrently, changes in transport costs and IC technology are shifting the boundaries and concept of industry. Manufacturing —‘ smokestack industry ’— has been understood as the main driver of structural transformation; but today a wide range of services and agro-industrial products have emerged. To look in depth at the emerging developments, the Brookings Institution and UNU-WIDER launched a joint research project entitled Industries without Smokestacks: Implications for Africa ’ s Industrialization, with the remit of helping African policy makers develop a better understanding of industries without smokestacks and their potential to contribute to growth-enhancing structural change. This book delivers the crystalized and re fi ned results of that entire research project. I am most grateful to the book ’ s many contributors for their authorship, and to my fellow editors, Richard S. Newfarmer and John Page, for their analytical and editorial skills. The book is an advancement in the fi eld of structural transformation providing essential reading and analyses for economists, pol- icy makers, and scholars of development. UNU-WIDER gratefully acknowledges the support and fi nancial contribu- tions to its research programme by the governments of Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Without this vital funding our research and policy advisory work would be impossible. Finn Tarp Director, UNU-WIDER May 2018 OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi Contents List of Figures ix List of Tables xi List of Abbreviations xiii Notes on Contributors xv 1. Industries without Smokestacks and Structural Transformation in Africa: Overview 1 Richard S. Newfarmer, John Page, and Finn Tarp 2. New Technologies Create Opportunities 27 Sally Murray 3. Telecommunication and ICT-Based Services Trade 48 Cláudio R. Frischtak 4. Tourism Global Value Chains and Africa 68 Jack Daly and Gary Geref fi 5. Agro-Processing and Horticultural Exports from Africa 90 Emiko Fukase and Will Martin 6. Air Transport in Africa: A Portrait of Capacity and Competition in Various Market Segments 113 Heinrich C. Bo fi nger 7. How Trucking Services Have Improved and May Contribute to Economic Development: The Case of East Africa 133 Charles Kunaka, Gaël Raballand, and Mike Fitzmaurice 8. Trade in Services: Opening Markets to Create Opportunities 151 Bernard Hoekman 9. Industries without Smokestacks: Implications for Ethiopia ’ s Industrialization 170 Mulu Gebreeyesus 10. The Agro-Processing Industry and its Potential for Structural Transformation of the Ghanaian Economy 191 Nkechi S. Owoo and Monica P. Lambon-Quaye fi o OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi 11. Prospects for Information and Communications Technology- Enabled Services in Kenya: The Case of the Mobile Money Transfer Industry 213 Dianah Ngui and Peter Kimuyu 12. Industries without Smokestacks: Mozambique Country Case Study 232 António S. Cruz and Fausto J. Mafambissa 13. Senegal: A Service Economy in Need of an Export Boost 254 E. Philip English 14. Understanding and Characterizing the Services Sector in South Africa: An Overview 275 Haroon Bhorat, Christopher Rooney, and François Steenkamp 15. Employment and Productivity Growth in Tanzania ’ s Service Sector 296 Mia Ellis, Margaret McMillan, and Jed Silver 16. Rwanda: From Devastation to Services-First Transformation 316 Kasim Munyegera Ggombe and Richard S. Newfarmer 17. Industries without Smokestacks in Uganda and Rwanda 341 John Spray and Sebastian Wolf 18. Regional Opportunities in East Africa 364 Stephen Karingi, Ottavia Pesce, and Lily Sommer 19. Integration Along the Abuja Road Map: A Progress Report 387 Jaime de Melo, Mariem Nouar, and Jean-Marc Solleder 20. Widening the Options: Implications for Public Policy 411 Richard S. Newfarmer, John Page, and Finn Tarp Index 433 OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi Contents viii List of Figures 1.1. Has Africa ’ s manufacturing peaked too soon? 5 1.2. Manufacturing as a share of GDP on average declines over four decades 8 1.3. The changing relationship between manufacturing and services 10 1.4. IWSS sectors become more important in African non-mineral exports 20 1.5. The IWSS exports outstripped other non-mineral exports in most of SSA 21 3.1. ICT Development Index (IDI) by region compared with the global average, 2016 50 3.2. The moving connectivity frontier, 2008 – 14, selected developed economies 58 3.3. The moving connectivity frontier, 2008 – 14, selected developing economies 58 5.1. Export shares from sub-Saharan Africa 93 5.2. Shares of agricultural exports 95 5.3. Processed agricultural exports in total agricultural exports vs per capita income, 2011 100 6.1. Global aircraft positions over continents and oceans, 9 July 2016 115 6.2. Global aircraft positions over continental Africa, 9 July 2016 116 6.3. Number of international airport pairs served on multi-stop fl ights in sub-Saharan Africa, and the share of total international routes and seats 121 6.4. Percentage of routes by market concentration, all travel with Africa, and total number of routes 123 6.5. Percentage of routes by market concentration, intercontinental with sub-Saharan Africa, and the total number of routes 124 6.6. Sub-Saharan Africa, and total number of routes 125 6.7. Percentage of routes by market concentration, international travel between North and sub-Saharan Africa, and the total number of routes 125 6.8. Percentage of routes by market concentration, domestic travel within sub-Saharan Africa, and total number of routes 126 7.1. Road transport share of different destinations out of Dar es Salaam, 2015 137 7.2. Composition of logistics cost savings as a result of EATTFP 140 7.3. Percentage of use of GPS fl eet management according to fl eet size 143 7.4. Time spent at Malaba border post before and after reform 144 OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi A7.1. LPI scores in 2016 149 8.1. Services Trade Restrictiveness Index, 2009 156 9.1. Contribution of the different sectors to Ethiopia ’ s real GDP growth 175 9.2. The purpose of tourists ’ travel to Ethiopia, 2011 – 14 178 14.1. Correlation between sectoral productivity and change in employment shares in South Africa, 2000 – 14 279 14.2. Trend in growth of goods and services exports in South Africa, 1994 – 2014 284 14.3. The composition of services exports, 2005 – 10 286 14.4. FDI stock out fl ow by 2001 – 12 288 15.1. Productive heterogeneity of small fi rms 304 16.1. Rwanda ’ s GDP growth 1981 – 2015 321 16.2. Public investment is a leading source of growth 322 16.3. Foreign savings fi nance a large share of investment 324 16.4. Agriculture gives way to services and industry as drivers of growth 325 16.5a. Sector contribution to employment, 1995 – 2015 327 16.5b. Workers moving out of agriculture into urban activities 327 16.6. Rwanda ’ s services-led export growth 329 16.7. FDI picks up in the last decade 331 17.1. Graphical representation of Uganda sectoral input-output matrices for 2009 – 15 352 17.2. Graphical representation of Rwandan sectoral input-output matrices for 2013 and 2014 353 17.3. Correlation of output and network distance, disaggregated by sector 356 17.4. Output Growth top ten most interconnected sectors and all sectors 357 17.5. Output Growth and productivity growth in top ten connected sectors 358 18.1. Exports shares before and after accession to the CU, by partner state, % 367 19.1a. Average distance of trade by RTA before and ten years after integration: Agriculture 401 19.1b. Average distance of trade by RTA before and ten years after integration: Manufactures 402 19.2. A comparison of coverage of provisions across South-South RTAs: African RTAs vs. other South-South RTAs 405 OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi List of Figures x List of Tables 1.1. Industries without smokestacks are a growing segment of exports 21 3.1. IP traf fi c by type and mobile share, 2015 (actual), 2016 – 20 (projected), petabyte per month 53 3.2. Broadband subscribers (per 100 inhabitants), mobile, fi xed, and total, major regions, 2005, 2010 – 15 56 3.3. IDI components, selected African countries, 2016 63 3.4. Market share of mobile operators, selected sub-Saharan countries 64 3.5. Price of telecommunication services, selected sub-Saharan countries (US$) 65 4.1. Global economic impact of tourism in 2014 69 4.2. Major job pro fi les and skill levels in tourism value chains 72 4.3. Breakdown of global foreign and domestic visitor spending, 2015 76 4.4. Leadings sites for international association meetings in Africa, 2011 – 15 78 5.1. Export shares for six-digit agricultural goods, 2013 96 5.2. Composition of SSA ’ s top 20 exports to the world and to SSA, 2013 98 5.3. Structure of ad valorem equivalent (AVE) protection, 2011 101 5.4. Simulation results: trade effects (%) 103 6.1. Estimated seats and growth rates in African air transport markets 117 6.2. List of the top 25 airlines serving Africa, with annualized growth rates between 2007 and 2012 118 6.3. Number of international routes with monopolies by estimated seats per route 127 7.1. Savings resulting from EATTFP interventions in 2012 (in million US$) 140 7.2. Enterprises surveyed versus total per country 141 7.3. Ownership structure of road transport enterprises in East Africa 142 7.4. Age of truck at purchase and fl eet age 144 7.5. Estimate of total employment generated by trucking industry 145 7.6. Average daily number of trucks crossing at the Gatuna border post by nationality 147 9.1. Ethiopia ’ s merchandise and service exports, 2005 – 13 176 OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi 9.2. Contribution of tourism and travel to exports, GDP, and employment: Ethiopia vs Kenya 177 9.3. Pattern of Ethiopia ’ s exports of fl owers, fruits, and vegetables (in US$ million) 183 11.1. Mobile phone fi nancial services growth 222 12.1. Industries without Smokestacks contributed with 1.9% to annual average GDP growth in 1993 – 2015 235 13.1. Principal exports of goods and services: share of total, 2014 – 15 (%)* 256 13.2. Outsourcing alternatives: industry leaders and African competitors, 2016 269 15.1. Tanzania ’ s economy-wide labour productivity growth decomposition, 2002 – 12 298 15.2. Contribution to new employment by sector, non-agricultural formal and informal, 2002 – 12 299 16.1. Exports by broad category, 2005 and 2016 330 17.1. Labour productivity, connection to and participation in the external sector 346 17.2. Sectors with most connections 354 A17.1. Ranking of top 30 Ugandan industries by labour productivity, at ISIC level 360 A17.2. Ranking of top 30 Rwandan industries by labour productivity, at ISIC level 361 18.1. Structure of EAC CET band rates 366 18.2. Estimated effects of CET tariff changes on EAC partner states 368 18.3. Evolution of intra-EAC tariff regimes, % 369 18.4. List of EAC tariffs for sensitive items 372 18.5. Intra-EAC import share of total EAC imports of sensitive items by tariff heading, % 373 18.6. Trade in sensitive products within the EAC considering only the top fi ve exports for each trading partner (share of a partner states exports to the trading partner), 2014 374 18.7. Important agro-processed products produced in EAC partner states 378 19.1. Characteristics of Africa ’ s regional integration agreements 389 19.2. Correlates of bilateral trade 2012 (manufactures, south-south) 398 19.3. New goods traded by RIA over 2000 – 8 403 19.4. Depth of integration and trade in components and parts: panel 1982 – 2012 407 OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi List of Tables xii List of Abbreviations AEC African Economic Community AMU Arab Maghreb Union AU African Union BPO business process outsourcing BTA Agreement on Basic Telecommunications Services C coastal CEMAC Central African Economic and Monetary Community CET common external tariff COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CPU Customs and Political Union EAC East African Community ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ELF ethno-linguistic fractionalization EPEU Environmental, Political and Economic Union FDI foreign direct investment FEs fi xed effects FTAs free trade areas GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project GVCs global value chains HVLD ‘ high-value low-density ’ (tourism policy) ITA Information Technology Agreement SSA sub-Saharan Africa NICI National ICT Strategy and Plan, Rwanda HH Index Her fi ndahl-Hirschmann index ICT information and communication technologies ITES ICT-enabled services LDC least developed countries LL landlocked OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi NTBs non-tariff barriers OLS ordinary least squares POL polarization PTAs preferential trade agreements RECs Regional Economic Communities RIAs Regional Integration Arrangements RoO rules of origin RTAs regional trade agreements SADC Southern African Development Community SEZ special economic zone SPM Supplementary Protection Measures TFTA Tripartite FTA UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi List of Abbreviations xiv Notes on Contributors Haroon Bhorat is Professor of Economics in the School of Economics and Director of the Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU), at the University of Cape Town, South Africa. His research interests cover labour economics, poverty, and income distribution. He has published more than 150 academic journal articles, book chapters, and working papers, as well as co-authoring and co-editing a number of books on labour market and poverty issues in Africa. Haroon is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, an IZA Research Fellow, and an Honorary Research Fellow at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC). He sits on numerous boards, and has served as economic advisor to two past South African fi nance ministers. Heinrich C. Bo fi nger is a transportation economist at the World Bank. His prior research on air transportation in Africa included the World Bank ’ s Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic Background Paper 16, which presented a sweeping portrait of the sector for both sub-Saharan African as well as North African air transport. He has been involved in a range of aviation issues throughout East Africa as well as in Senegal and Cape Verde, and also is the author of the World Bank ’ s Air Freight for Development Toolkit. António S. Cruz is an independent consultant. He was the National Director of Studies and Policy Analysis at the Ministry of Planning and Development in Mozambique for seven years. He is an economics undergraduate from University Eduardo Mondlane in Maputo, has a Master ’ s degree in economics from the University of East Anglia, UK, and a PhD in International Trade (Agricultural Economics Department) from Purdue University, USA. Jack Daly is a Research Analyst at Duke University ’ s Global Value Chains Center. His research has used the GVC framework to study service, agricultural, and manufacturing value chains in Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Caribbean regions. Jaime de Melo , professor emeritus University of Geneva, is scienti fi c Director at FERDI (Fondation pour les études et recherches sur le développement international) and academic advisor at the Geneva Business School. His areas of interest are trade policy, regional integration, and trade and climate change. Mia Ellis is an economics and mathematics student at Tufts University. Her research has primarily focused on industry development and employment issues. She has worked in Honduras, Tanzania, Tunisia, and Egypt. E. Philip English is a consultant specializing in African economic policy. He worked for twenty years at the World Bank where his last assignment was as Lead Economist based OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi in Dakar and responsible for Senegal as well as Cape Verde, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, and Gambia. Before that he was Lead Economist for Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d ’ Ivoire and Togo. Between 2005 – 8, he conducted numerous country-level trade and export development studies in West Africa. From 1995 – 2005, he worked at the World Bank Institute, designing and delivering courses on trade policy, public expenditures, and labour issues, with a particular focus on Africa. He has written and edited books on international trade, small-scale enterprise, tourism, foreign aid, and the AfDB. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Toronto. Mike Fitzmaurice is the Owner-Director of Transport Logistics Consultants, a leading consultancy house in Southern and East Africa, specializing in cross-border and corri- dor performance monitoring; he is also the CEO of FESARTA (Federation of East and Southern Africa Road Transport Associations). His work is focused on cross-border road transportation, border post and corridor performance monitoring, trade facilitation, harmonization of road transport regulations, standards and one-stop border post devel- opments in the region and he has published widely in these fi elds. Cláudio R. Frischtak is the head of Inter.B — Consultoria Internacional de Negócios, a fi nancial and economics consulting fi rm based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and Country Director for Mozambique of the International Growth Center. He was formerly a Principal Industrial Economist at the World Bank where he worked during 1984 – 91. His graduate work in economics was undertaken at the University of Campinas, Brazil and at Stanford University (1980 – 4). While at the World Bank, he was an Adjunct Professor at the Department of Economics at Georgetown University (1987 – 90). He has published over 120 academic papers, books, and technical reports, and has worked extensively on issues related to industrial and infrastructure development, regulatory policy, and technological change and innovation. Emiko Fukase was an economist in the Development Research Group at the World Bank and continues to work for the Bank from New York as a consultant. Her research interests include agriculture and food security, trade policies and labour market issues such as job creation, income inequality, and migration. She holds a PhD in Economics from the Graduate Center, the City University of New York, and an MA in International Relations from Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Mulu Gebreeyesus is a senior researcher at the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). His current research interest is on industrial policy, trade orientation and fi rm performance, and small businesses dynamics. He has published widely in the fi eld of development economics and particularly competition and enterprises dynamics (investment, growth, entry-exit, and productivity), the practice and impact of indus- trial policy, and innovation and growth in small businesses in developing countries. He holds a PhD in Economics from the Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Sweden in 2006. Gary Geref fi is Professor of Sociology and Director of the Duke Global Value Chains Center. He has published numerous books and articles on globalization, industrial upgrading, and social and economic development, and he is one of the originators of the global commodity chain and global value chain frameworks. OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi Notes on Contributors xvi Kasim Munyegera Ggombe is an economist and researcher with a PhD and MA in Development Economics and a BA in Economics. He has research interests and experi- ence in development economics in general and in particular, fi nancial sector develop- ment, rural development, migration, trade, gender, poverty, and vulnerability, and climate change. He previously worked as Country Economist in the Rwanda country of fi ce of the International Growth Center (IGC) focusing on policy research in the fi elds of trade, agriculture, fi rm productivity, and private sector development. He has pub- lished in leading journals in the fi eld of development economics. Besides his research consultancy work in Rwanda, he engages in training in data and policy analysis, quantitative methods, and the application of data analysis software, STATA. He has consulted for leading international organizations. Bernard Hoekman is Professor, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute in Florence, Italy. He is also a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, a Senior Associate of the Economic Research Forum for the Arab countries, Turkey, and Iran, a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, a member of the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on International Trade and Investment. Stephen Karingi is the Director of the Capacity Development Division of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. He spearheads policy research in a broad array of areas within the Commission and is a member of the Editorial Boards of several African journals, such as the Journal of African Trade and the recently launched Journal of African Transformation . He has published extensively in major academic peer-reviewed journals and contributed chapters in edited books in the fi elds of development, trade, and agriculture economics. Mr. Karingi holds a BSc (Hons) degree in Agricultural Economics from Egerton University in Kenya and a MSc in Economics and PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of New England in Australia. Peter Kimuyu is a commissioner in the Commission on Revenue Allocation, Kenya. His research focuses on economics of energy and water, enterprise/industrial econom- ics, and ethical issues related to economics. He has published widely on enterprise performance, transformation and growth, manufacturing, and strategic policies. Charles Kunaka is Lead Private Sector Specialist with the World Bank. He specializes on investments and analytical work on trade and transport corridors, logistics and trans- port services, and has a current focus on East Africa, East Asia and Paci fi c and South Asia countries but has worked on countries across all regions of the world. Monica P. Lambon-Quaye fi o is a lecturer at the Department of Economics, University of Ghana. Her research is on health, demographic, and development economics. She has published in the fi elds of health and demographic economics, in particular in the area of neonatal mortality and migration in developing countries. Fausto J. Mafambissa is an of fi cial at the Economic and Financial Studies Directorate, Ministry of Economy and Finance of Mozambique, Maputo. He was the Head of Macroeconomic Policies Department for nine years. He has an Agronomics Engineering Undergraduate degree from University Eduardo Mondlane in Maputo, and a Masters in Development Economics from Reading University, UK. OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi Notes on Contributors xvii Will Martin is a a Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, and President of the International Association of Agricultural Economists. Mar- tin ’ s recent research has focused primarily on the impact of changes in food and trade policies and food prices on poverty and food security in developing countries. His research has also examined the impact of major trade policy reforms — including the Uruguay Round, the Doha Development Agenda, and China ’ s accession to the WTO — on developing coun- tries; implications of climate change for poor people; and implications of improvements in agricultural productivity in developing countries. He trained in economics and agricultural economics at the University of Queensland, the Australian National University and Iowa State University and worked at the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Economics, the Australian National University, and the World Bank before joining IFPRI in 2015. Margaret McMillan is a professor of economics at Tufts University. She has published widely in the areas of international trade, investment, structural change, and economic growth focusing primarily on developing countries. Understanding the distributional consequences of international economic integration is a key focus of her work. She is a Faculty Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, and a recipient of numerous research grants. Sally Murray is Senior Country Economist for the International Growth Centre (IGC) in Rwanda. Her research is focused on urbanization, tax, and tourism in developing countries. She has also worked for the IGC in South Sudan, and on urban policy research for the World Bank. She holds a BA in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics from Oxford University, and an MSc in Development Studies (Research) from the London School of Economics and Political Sciences. Richard S. Newfarmer is Country Director for Rwanda and Uganda at the Inter- national Growth Centre (Oxford University and the London School of Economics). He is a Member of the Advisory Board for the WTO Chairs Program, and consults with international organizations, including the World Bank, the OECD, and the Inter- national Trade Centre. He was the World Bank ’ s Special Representative to the World Trade Organization, and served as a lead economist in Latin America, East Asia, and the research department. He has authored numerous articles and books on trade, industrial policy, and foreign investment, recently co-authoring Trade in Zimbabwe, and ‘ Trade and Employment in a Fast Changing World ’ for the OECD. Dianah Ngui is a senior lecturer at the School of Economics, Kenyatta University. Her research focuses on industrial and energy economics and enterprise performance. She has researched and published widely on industrial policy, fi rm ef fi ciency, technology adoption, energy consumption, and demand analysis. Mariem Nouar is a PhD student at the University of Geneva. Her research involves the impacts of regional trade agreements on intra-African trade. She holds a Master ’ s degree in development economics from the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. Nkechi S. Owoo is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Economics, University of Ghana. Her research is on population economics, economics of the family, and devel- opment economics. She has published in the fi elds of health, demographic, and gender economics, particularly in the area of child and maternal health. OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi Notes on Contributors xviii John Page is Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development at the Brookings Institution and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow of UNU-WIDER. He is the author of more than 100 published articles on the economics of developing countries and the co-author of the 2009 UNIDO Industrial Development Report Breaking in and Moving Up: Industrial Challenges for the Bottom Billion and the Middle-Income Countries and Made in Africa: Learning to Compete in Industry (Brookings Institution Press). Ottavia Pesce is an economist at the United Nations Economic Commission for Western Asia. Her research focuses on the multidimensional poverty and employment policies of the Arab region. Prior to this, she was an economist at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, where she published extensively on trade and indus- trial policies on the continent and advised African governments on trade negotiations and industrial strategies for structural transformation. Ms. Pesce holds a MSc in Public Affairs from the London School of Economics and Political Sciences and a BA in Economics from Universita ’ Bocconi. Gaël Raballand is Lead Public Sector Specialist with the World Bank, currently based in Dar es Salaam. He has co-authored six World Bank books on customs reforms, transport and trade, and has worked in sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa on various public sector reforms and governance programs. Christopher Rooney is a junior researcher at the Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU), at the University of Cape Town, South Africa. Chris has a Master ’ s degree in Applied Economics (development stream) from UCT. His research interests include economics of education, behavioural economics, and development economics. He has tutored extensively for UCT ’ s Statistics and Economics departments and completed an internship for the Economic Research Southern Africa in June-July 2014. Jed Silver is a senior research assistant at IFPRI. His work has focused on agricultural development as well as SME fi nancing and FDI agglomeration spillovers in Africa. He is particularly interested in how the private sector can create incentives to increase smallholder agricultural productivity. Jean-Marc Solleder is a PhD candidate at the University of Geneva. His area of research is international trade, in particular non-tariff measures, trade elasticities, and global value chains. Prior to joining the School of Economics and Management of the University of Geneva he had a career as information security engineer. Lily Sommer is a Trade Policy Fellow at the African Trade Policy Centre of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Her research is on African trade policy with a focus on the linkages between trade and industrialization, poverty, and gender. She has published widely in the fi elds of development and trade economics, in particular on issues related to the continental free trade area, smart trade and industrial policy, and sustainable development goals. Ms. Sommer holds a MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Sciences and a BA in Economics from the University of Cambridge. John Spray is a PhD candidate in economics at the University of Cambridge. Prior to this, he was a country economist for the International Growth Centre in Rwanda and as an ODI fellow in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry in Liberia. OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 1/10/2018, SPi Notes on Contributors xix