This has been the most ineffective US military campaign in US history Everything that President Trump and the Pentagon have been saying about the war are essentially lies Iran has thousands of supersonic and hypersonic anti-hship missiles They could sink all of our ships before they got to Car Island I think the US could hold Car Island more or less indefinitely There'd be hundreds of casualties every week Their army is intact They have 100% of their highlyenriched uranium There's really no possibility of regime change This war is proceeding on course to be a forever war and it's likely to last uh for many months if not till the end of Trump's presidency. >> World War II is already happening. >> This is a house of cars and it is in the process of collapsing right now. >> You're going to see an economic crash the likes of which we've never seen. >> Hi folks, Canadian Prepper here So today on the channel, I always mess this up I'm going to try to do it in one take Today we have David Pine, deputy executive director of the task force on national and homeland security, former US Army headquarters staff officer, publish national security strategist and military historian, Russia and nuclear weapons expert We've had David on plenty of times now And you always have some interesting insights to give us a novel way to look at things In the headlines today is Donald Trump's statements, and I quote, "The United States will be hitting Iran, whose Navy, Air Force, radar, anti-aircraft, and all other forms of defense together, most of its offensive capability are gone, very hard tonight This comes, of course, after last night's attack At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Car Island and other oil infrastructure points and assume total control over their oil and gas markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J Trump. >> A few moments later, >> how confident are you that there will be a signing this weekend because you have come close to sealing a deal but at the last minute it has fallen in power and >> it'll be it'll be soon maybe this weekend >> and has the supreme leader approved this deal sir >> I understand the answer is yes >> 12 seconds later >> the status of the negotiations was clear to us from the beginning and most of the text had been finalized but the Americans kept changing their positions Iran has proven that it does not compromise on what it has defined as a red line the matters raised about the agreement are speculation and nothing has been finalized. >> Well, I guess we've lost the element of surprise Uh what do you make of these threats? >> Well, Nate, thanks again for having me on Uh it's a pleasure to be with you Um yeah, President Trump is obviously uh you know, he's kind of got this bipolar foreign policy It was just two mornings ago he was saying that uh you know, peace was in hand we we' re he'd received a a peace offer that was acceptable to um to the United States and and uh all that was needed was essentially to you know to get it signed And then of course uh um I I ran I Iran shot down an Apache helicopter with a drone uh which was pretty unusual cuz uh drones normally don't shoot down helicopters but uh pretty pretty impressive feat And uh he's been resuming uh you know heavy military strikes on the on Iran ever since um you know after claiming the war is over and yesterday he declared that uh essentially uh Iran took too long to negotiate a peace deal um and therefore uh they were going to you know we'll have have to teach them a lesson essentially and uh you know there were heavy strikes uh the last couple days especially yesterday close to Terran within 40 40 miles and also coastal missile defense and radar sites and essentially the war has restarted uh you Of course, we saw it was just days ago that we saw Iran and Israel exchange uh strikes, not heavy strikes, but multiple waves of strike missile strikes And uh essentially this war is proceeding uh much as I uh foresaw it would that it would uh before uh the war I I warned a couple weeks before that it would be a forever war It would be a guaranteed US strategic defeat uh because we didn't have the ability to overthrow the Iranian regime we didn't have the ability and still don't have the ability to destroy uh their modestsized nuclear arsenal, let alone their nuclear production sites Uh and that's been backed up by US intelligence Uh this has been uh really the probably the most ineffective US military campaign in US history because uh according to US intelligence reports, we've uh you know, their uh missile um arsenal is is down only 30% Uh so essentially based on my estimates, we've destroyed 15 to 16% of their missile arsenal They've used another 14 to 15% that they fired against the US and Israel Uh they have uh you know essentially 95% of their ships Granted that we sunk all 11 of their major surface combatants Uh we've destroyed onethird of their air force, but their army is intact Uh they have 100% of their highlyenriched uranium Uh so we haven't you know as Ted Posal has stated uh they're able to produce uh continue producing nuclear weapons uh in inside their deep underground bunkers that are impervious against US conventional air strikes and they have 90% of their um you know missile production and missile launch facilities that that are operational as well as uh over 90% of their anti-hship coastal defense uh batteries And uh you know when President Trump is talking about invading or taking Car Island, I mean that's really it's essentially impossible from an amphibious uh standpoint uh because uh Iran has uh you know probably thousands of uh supersonic and hypersonic anti-hship missiles uh that could sink all of our ships uh you know before they got to Car Island, which is at the at the western end of the of the Persian Gulf And we can't even uh you know keep destroyers in there for more than 3 days And that was I think uh several weeks ago that we had a a project freedom declared that lasted 30 I think 40 hours uh before uh you know our three US Navy destroyers had to beat a hasty retreat And then uh most recently, I think it was a week or two ago, we had a couple US Navy destroyers, as soon as they entered the straight of Hormuz, they were bracketed on both sides with uh Iranian uh cruise missile and drone strikes, and they immediately withdrew So right now, the only military presence that the US has in the Persian Gulf are 20 24T uh you know, drone boats, autonomous drone boats, uh which is really pathetic you know, the mightiest navy in the world is unable to uh exert any naval power within the the strait or the Persian Gulf outside of drone boats So, uh yeah, this this uh this war is is proceeding on course to be a forever war and it's it's unwininnable war unfortunately that uh is likely to last for many months if not till the end of Trump's presidency So, Sentcom today uh has insisted that Straight of Hormuz and they posted this nice graphic where they say straight of Hermuz is open for transit Safe pathways are established for commercial vessels transiting the straight of Hermuse The pathways available for all vessels not violating the blockade against Iran Hundreds of ships have transited in the last 2 months US forces are postured to defend against Iranian aggression Iran does not control the straight of Hermoose So when you're talking about these drone boats, so are they just using a bunch of uh autonomous systems to declare the straight open Like there's no actual manned ships in close proximity to uh Iranian forces. >> That's correct The US had three frigotized vessels uh uh that were in uh the Gulf uh that were withdrawn immediately before the war began along with I think maybe a few mine sweepers Currently those drone boats uh are the only US naval presence uh on the sea Of course we have uh aircraft, we have drones, we have uh perhaps fighter jet fighters and uh you know co helicopters flying over the Gulf uh but absolutely no naval presence man naval presence whatsoever And so uh yeah very you know the very facts that I explained uh that we can't even uh insert uh even you know two or three US Navy destroyers through this through the straight without uh retreating under heavy fire uh means that we don't control the the Gulf So uh you know everything uh that President Trump and the Pentagon have been saying saying about the war are essentially lies meant to mislead the American people So you don't believe when he says uh 200 ships have passed through the straight? >> Yeah So President Trump did claim yesterday that there were 200 ships that passed through the straight with a total of 100 million barrels of oil Um if indeed that that occurred, I would I would uh strongly suggest that it was mostly Chinese vessels or Iranian uh you know aligned vessels of countries that have agreed to pay the transit fees Um there's no evidence, you know, there's there's nothing that to indicate that the US Navy has been successful in escorting any ships. >> So it's not it's not a consequence of the US opening up the straight It's more this whole uh regime that Iran has has enacted that that has allowed these So Trump is just exaggerating basically. >> Yeah, that's correct I mean uh that could be a factual statement but he didn't indicate which uh you know who who's uh what countries own those ships and I think if we looked at the the list of countries it would be countries like India, Pakistan uh China you know nuclear powers that are allied formerly allied with Iran. >> Up until this point they have uh usually said one thing and done the other So they've they've leveraged deceit in a lot of ways and misdirection in order to mislead the Iranians and stab them in the back It appears now they're stabbing them in the front They're announcing what they're going to do So yesterday, Trump very explicitly announced that he was going to conduct attacks And when he said that, I was like, "Okay, is this just more bluster?" And then Pete Hegsth said it and then he doubled down once again And they made sure that we all knew exactly what they were going to do and now they're telegraphing that once again they're going to attack tonight Uh what do you think is the reason for this shift and their disregard for the element of surprise in just the last 48 hours cuz up until this point they've been they've been doing the opposite Well, um, you know, it was about two weeks ago that there was a peace deal that Steve Wickoff had negotiated with Iran that was sitting on Trump's desk waiting for signature and he met with the met with his national security staff um in the situation uh room and uh decided to reject that offer to send them a counter offer and of course the following Monday uh Iran uh you know dis dismissed that offer and uh you know essentially suspended all peace talks over the Israeli uh renewed offensive in Lebanon But there was also a very interesting event uh which I I know that you're aware of and that was uh uh two weeks ago today uh Larry Johnson uh reported that uh Secretary of State Marco Rubio was notified that Iran was preparing to test a a nuclear weapon uh which as you know I've been saying they likely have had nuclear weapons for for some years uh likely nuclear missiles since 2023 along with super EMP satellites and uh you know we had we saw saw a change in rhetoric on the part of President Trump, not not really a change of action Um, we've been told this whole time that uh, you know, Iran having nuclear weapons would be a worldchanging event that as soon as they had their first nuclear weapon, they would fire it at Israel Israel would cease to exist Then they would target other Middle Eastern countries and they would target Europe and they would target the US itself So the whole the whole idea that uh you know a handful of of Iranian nuclear weapons pose a greater threat than thousands and thousands of Russian and Chinese and North Korean nuclear weapons I think has been exposed as a complete uh you know farce And uh uh Israel, of course, Netanyahu basically admitted that Iran had nuclear weapons because uh it was 2 or 3 days ago, I think it was Monday, that he uh he said that uh Israeli uh uh missile strikes on Iran were primarily to prevent uh you know to preempt an Iranian uh nuclear strike on Israel Obviously, you can't preempt a nuclear strike that's imminent unless they they have nuclear weapons or, you know, essentially are mounting those on their missiles So, um I think that's that's kind of a an interesting development because um you know, we're essentially at war with a a known nuclear power and we're not we're not trying to deescalate You know, I I think if if Iran did detonate a nuclear weapon and and we admitted that was it was in fact a nuclear uh test that Trump would deescalate But at this point uh uh he seems to be fully secure in the belief uh which I think is well grounded that uh Iran's leaders are not suicidal Uh they're rational and restrained They're not going to use nuclear weapons um unless their regime is on the brink of being overthrown or the or Iran is being invaded and the and is about to be overrun Uh so uh the risks of of a nuclear strike by Iran against the US or Israel uh remains relatively low >> because Larry Johnson had said that part of the reason why Donald Trump had struck a different tone was because he was concerned that they or I guess they were notified that they had a nuclear weapon, but now they're they're going all out and they're attacking Wouldn't that sort of contradict that that claim that if they had a nuclear weapon and they knew that they were in possession of one, why would they be provoking them in such a way? >> Well, I think President Trump is essentially an irrational actor Um, he doesn't behave logically or rationally He doesn't have a strategy uh essentially uh you know whatever the US strategy or policy is determined uh based on how he wake you know how he feels when he wakes up every day uh or how he you know what decisions or feelings he has from hour to hour so I think that's very problematic uh it's very detrimental to US national security uh traditionally uh the US has had stable leadership a stable foreign policy uh one that's that's rational that has some some moral basis uh as Tucker Carlson stated uh during his monologue yesterday Um the US essentially lost its moral authority because uh we did uh engage in