MEMORANDUM TO: Heidi St. John for Congress FROM: Neighborhood Research and Media RE: Survey, Washington CD - 3 DATE: 2/9/22 HEIDI ST. JOHN TAKES THE LEAD OVER JOE KENT Republican Heidi St. John has taken a narrow lead over Joe Kent, although both remain behind the two frontrunners: incumbent Jaime Herrera - Beutler and Democrat Brent Hennrich. While the combined St. John - Kent vote exceeds the Herrera - Beutler vote, and that lead has expande d in the past five months, the split continues to aid the incumbent. Both St. John and Kent will compete to become the strongest challenger to Herrera - Beutler over the next few months, but St. John clearly has the edge. If current trends continue, Kent’s support will begin to erode and he will be under pressure to reconsider his candidacy. ALL VOTERS Oct Feb Change Republican Jaime Herrera - Beutler 1 4 % 1 7 % + 3 % Democrat Brent Hennrich 1 1 % 17% + 6% Republican Joe Kent 1 1 % 1 1 % 0% Republican Vicki Kraft n/a 1% + 1% Republican Heidi St. John 7% 1 2 % + 5 % Undecided/Other 5 8 % 4 1 % - 1 7 % Despite being endorsed by President Trump, Kent has actually dropped in ballot share among Trump favorables, and now loses these voters to Heidi St. John TRUMP FAVORABLES Oct Feb Change Republican Jaime Herrera - Beutler 12% 15% + 3% Democrat Brent Hennrich 0% 0% 0% Republican Joe Kent 2 2 % 21 % - 1 % Republican Vicki Kraft n/a 3 % + 3 % Republican Heidi St. John 12 % 23 % + 1 1 % Undecided/Other 5 4 % 3 7 % - 1 7 % Kent’s biggest problem, however, is that he’s lost his grip on those hard - core anti - Biden partisan Republicans. Kent’s most significant losses were a mong voters who said the N umber O ne problem facing the country was Biden , Democrats, Liberals or 2 some combination of the above (11 percent of October resp ondents, 13 percent in February). #1 PROB. BIDEN, DEMS OR LIBS. Oct Feb Change Republican Jaime Herrera - Beutler 12% 5% - 7 % Democrat Brent Hennrich 0% 0% 0% Republican Joe Kent 33 % 2 5 % - 8 % Republican Vicki Kraft n/a 5 % + 5 % Republican Heidi St. John 1 0 % 30 % + 20 % Undecided/Other 45 % 3 5 % - 1 0 % ST. JOHN’S SOLID BASE CONTINUES TO GROW With a n overall 13 - 3 favorable rating (23 - 1 with generic Republicans), St. John has surged to become the most favorable Republican in this contest , converting a solid 73 percent of her favorables into votes (from 66 percent in October) These numbers are up from 7 - 2 (11 - 2 with generic Republicans) in the previous survey. Among Trump favorables, S t. John has gone from 10 - 3 favorable (3 mixed, 45 percent ID) to 23 - 1 favorable, 0 mixed and 65 percent ID , but where it’s exploded is with those voters who see Biden, Democrats or Liberals as the number one problem With this very partisan group of voters , St. John has rocketed fr o m just 10 - 5 (2 mixed) in October to a mind - blowing 36 - 3 (0 mixed) now St. John’s name ID has gone up from 35 to 50 percent in that time (43 to 65 percent with generic Republicans) and with those concerned about Biden, Democr ats, etc. from 43 to 69 percent JOE KENT’S STAGNATED AND PEAKED Kent, on the other hand, has stagnated in the past five months, going from 10 - 4 favorable ( 43 percent ID) to 11 - 8 ( 59 percent ID) With generic Republicans his numbers have shifted from 18 - 1 favorable (50 percent ID) to 19 - 3 (63 percent ID). Kent converts 68 percent of his favorables into votes, down from 72 percent in October. The former Portland, Oregon Democrat and Bernie Sanders supporter turned “ MAGA Warrior ” was 19 - 0 with Trump favor ables in October and is 22 - 3 today 3 But with those voters mentioning Biden, Democrats or Liberals as the number one problem – the hard core base – Kent went from 26 - 0 (62 percent ID) to 25 - 5 (75 percent ID) with more voters go in g into the “ hea rd of, no opinion ” category. HERRERA - BEUTLER SHOWS MINOR GAINS AS SHE GETS OF F THE CANVAS AND SOLIDIFES HER BASE Herrera - Beutler has shown some minor improvement in her numbers since October, but most of it has been in her base’s intensity. Just 45 percent of Herrera - Beutler favorables were voting for her in October. Today that number is 6 2 percent. Overall, however, her fav orability numbers remain similar to October with one significant change : t he incumbent is 21 - 32 net unfavorable, not much different from her 21 - 37 October rat ing However Herrera - Beutler’s mixed opinion share has dropped from 20 percent to 10 percent, with these and her reduced unfavorables dropping int o “no opinion ” – signifying a softening in her opposition. Herrera - Beutler was 21 - 42 (16 mixed) with Republicans in October and is 19 - 41 (10 mixed) today. Her name ID remains near universal at 97 percent, from 95 percent in October. With Trump favorables, her numbers remain virtually identical: 17 - 46 in October (14 mixed) and 17 - 45 today ( 8 mixed). She has improved slightly with hard - core par tisans mentioning Biden, Democrats or liberals as the top issue (10 - 68, 17 mixed to 13 - 60, 5 mixed). GOP +23 IN CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC BALLOT TRUMP +15 OVER BIDEN, DESANTIS +19 SMILEY +17 OVER PATTY MURRAY Republicans lead the generic ballot for Congress 52 - 29, up from 47 - 31 in October. In a U.S. Senate contest , Republican Tiffany Smiley leads incumbent Democrat Patty Murray 48 - 31. President Trump lead s Joe Biden by 50 - 35 in a hypothetical 2024 ballot test while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis led Biden by 5 2 - 33. Neither t he U.S. Senate contest , nor the 2024 presidential race , was tested in October. 4 TRUMP OPINIONS MORE MIXED THAN OCTOB ER , BUT BIDEN’S ARE DEFINITELY MORE NEGATIVE President Trump has a 38 - 37 favorable rating overall, with 21 percent mixed – from 41 - 41, 14 mixed in October. Joe Biden has gone from 29 - 56 net negative (11 mixed) in October to 26 - 58, 12 mixed, today. Trump wins 97 percent of his favorables, and 96 percent of Trump favorables back DeSantis over Biden. Trump beats Biden 49 - 6 among those with a mixed opinion of the former president, while DeS antis wins 57 - 5 with these voters. CONCLUSIONS /NOTES 1) St. John has taken many hard - right pro - Trump conservatives away from Kent, and Kent needs a new message to win them back. Being endorsed by Trump is not enough. 2) Kent’s support for Bernie Sanders and his leftist economic views are a big negative with Republicans. 3) Herrera - Beutler is starting to convert Democratic favorables into votes , and if that continues , could create a problem for Hennrich’s runoff chances. 4) St. John beats Herrera - Beutler 28 - 23 in a hypothetical runoff, and beats Kent 16 - 14. METHODO LOGY N eighborhood Researc h and Media completed 303 live caller surveys of registered voters in the li kely new 3 rd Congressional District who voted in the 2020 primary election and said their chances of voting in the August 2022 primary were “definite” or “very likely.” The theoretical m argin of error is +/ - 5.6 percent in 95 percent of cases at a 50% response, lower for lesser amounts. Calls were completed at our in - house facilities in Nags Head, North Carolina on January 31 thr ough February 4 th and on February 7 th and 8 th ###