SAM'S MODEST PROPOSAL TO SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY SEPTEMBER 2026 Discussion draft · Not an official SSA actuarial score Page 1 A WORKING DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION Sam's Modest Proposal to Save Social Security Five contribution and benefit rules, and what they do to solvency. Sam Shallenberger · September 12, 2026 The problem in one paragraph The 2026 Trustees Report says the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund runs dry in the fourth quarter of 2032. Combined OASDI reserves last until the third quarter of 2034. After that, incoming taxes cover about 83 percent of scheduled benefits, falling toward 65 percent by 2100. The 75-year hole is 4.42 percent of taxable payroll. This note is a set of contribution and benefit rules aimed at that hole. It is a sketch, not an Office of the Chief Actuary score. The bargain in one sentence People who keep the old retirement deal pay the old employee rate — and, if they are high earners, they pay it on wages above the cap. People born after September 12, 2008 pay the full employee rate through age 44, a reduced employee rate after 45, and never collect an OASI retirement check. Disability and survivor insurance stay in place for everyone. The five rules Wage base used as the yardstick is the 2026 contribution and benefit base of $184,500 (so 2× is $369,000 and 3× is $553,500). The base keeps moving with the average wage index. Only the employee OASDI rate ever changes. The employer match stays 6.2 percent, capped, for every worker. Rule 1 — End OASI retirement for everyone born after September 12, 2008 From now on, anyone born after that date never receives an Old-Age retirement benefit. This is not a closed 18-year cohort. It covers children already under 18 today and every child born after today. SSDI and survivor benefits are not cut. Rule 2 — Means-test retirement for people under 45 today Anyone born after September 12, 1981 and on or before September 12, 2008 keeps a retirement benefit, scaled to the last five years of average employment income compared with that year's wage base. Investment income does not count. Last 5-year average employment income Retirement benefit At or under 1× the wage base 100 percent Over 1× and through 2× 50 percent Over 2× and through 3× 25 percent Over 3× Zero This test is gameable. High-W-2 earners can retire earlier, shift into equity or a spouse's wages, and stay under a cliff. Treat the long-run cut as closer to 5–10 percent of that cohort's retirement outlays, not a clean 20 percent. Rule 3 — Non-citizens pay 50 percent more employee OASDI, for life Anyone who is not a U.S. citizen on enactment — treated here as September 12, 2026 — and anyone who arrives later as a non-citizen, pays 1.5 times the employee OASDI rate that person would otherwise owe. The surcharge stays attached after naturalization. SAM'S MODEST PROPOSAL TO SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY SEPTEMBER 2026 Discussion draft · Not an official SSA actuarial score Page 2 Rule 4 — The youth discount starts at 45, not at 18 Workers born after September 12, 2008 pay the normal 6.2 percent employee OASDI rate from age 18 through the year they turn 44. Beginning the year they turn 45, the employee rate drops to 1.55 percent (one-quarter of 6.2) for the rest of working life. That is the price of a $0 retirement benefit. They still have full SSDI and survivors. The first of this group turns 45 in 2053. The first of them can claim retirement in 2071 and receive nothing. Rule 5 — Uncap the employee tax for people who keep the old deal Starting in 2027, anyone born on or before September 12, 1981 pays the 6.2 percent employee OASDI tax on covered earnings above the wage base. Those extra employee taxes do not raise the PIA. Three-year phase-in: 2.07 percent, then 4.13 percent, then 6.2 percent on the excess. Employer match stays capped. No current check is cut. Who pays what Employer OASDI is 6.2 percent up to the wage base in every row. Combined is employee plus employer. Worker Age Employee Employer Combined Citizen, born on or before Sep 12, 2008 Any 6.2% 6.2% 12.4% Citizen, born after Sep 12, 2008 18–44 6.2% 6.2% 12.4% Citizen, born after Sep 12, 2008 45+ 1.55% 6.2% 7.75% Non-citizen, born on or before Sep 12, 2008 Any 9.3% 6.2% 15.5% Non-citizen, born after Sep 12, 2008 18–44 9.3% 6.2% 15.5% Non-citizen, born after Sep 12, 2008 45+ 2.325% 6.2% 8.525% Who gets what Birth date OASI retirement SSDI / survivors Employee rate On or before Sep 12, 1981 (45+ today) Current-law formula. Rule 5 adds tax above the cap, no extra PIA. Unchanged 6.2% (uncapped wages if Rule 5) Sep 13, 1981 – Sep 12, 2008 (18–44 today) Means-tested on last-five-year average wages. First claims 2044. Unchanged 6.2% After Sep 12, 2008 (under 18 today, and every later birth) Zero, for life. First possible claim year 2071. Unchanged 6.2% to age 44; 1.55% from 45 SAM'S MODEST PROPOSAL TO SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY SEPTEMBER 2026 Discussion draft · Not an official SSA actuarial score Page 3 What this does to solvency Solvency has three clocks. They do not move together. Most “save Social Security” bills load pain onto people already 50–65 so the 2034 date moves. This package does the opposite on purpose: it leaves current retirees and anyone 45+ today on the old benefit formula, and it does not cut the youth employee rate until 2053. Clock What moves it Result under this package 2032 / 2034 reserve depletion Only new cash in the next eight years. That is Rule 3 plus Rule 5. Rules 1, 2, and 4 do not move this date. Rule 3 adds on the order of $20–30 billion a year. Rule 5, the employee uncap on grandfathered high earners with no extra PIA, is the only large near-term lever — on the order of $80–110 billion a year once phased in. Together they can slide combined depletion by about 1–3 years, not into the 2040s. 2044–2070, the overlap Means-tested millennials start claiming. Pre-1981 retirees are still on the rolls. Post-2008 workers still pay 6.2% until 2053. Through 2052 the youth generation is paying the full employee rate and not yet collecting retirement. That is the point of Rule 4. From 2053 the 1.55% rate begins on peak-earning ages, while retirement checks to people born before 2009 are still being written. That is the remaining strain inside the package. 2071 and after First post-2008 birthdays hit 62. New retired-worker awards to that generation are zero. Cost falls hard. By the 2080s–2090s the program is mostly disability and survivor insurance plus a dying tail of pre-2009 retirees. Combined tax on a late-career post-2008 worker is 7.75%. That is more than enough for SSDI and survivors. Long-run, the retirement system as we know it is over. The insurance utility is not. Read the 75-year actuarial balance last, not first The 75-year window will credit the late-century $0 retirement awards and will not fully punish the 2053–2070 tax cut in a way that matches cash. Cash is what empties the fund in 2034. Score three horizons separately: the depletion date, the 2053–2070 overlap, and the post-2071 insurance program. Year-by-year, in plain language Years Contributions Benefits Solvency 2026–2034 Full 6.2% employee on almost every worker. Non-citizen surcharge on. Rule 5 phases in on above-cap wages of people 45+ today. No benefit cut for anyone already 45+. Means test has not started. Depletion still arrives unless Rule 5 is in the bill. With Rules 3 and 5, expect a short slide, not a save. 2035–2052 Post-2008 workers are in the labor force and still paying 6.2%. No youth discount yet. Means test begins in 2044 as the oldest under-45s of today hit 62. Payable-rate haircut is the current-law problem unless Rule 5 bought a few years. Rule 1 has not cut a retirement check. 2053–2070 Oldest post-2008 workers turn 45. Employee rate on that group falls to 1.55% at peak earnings. 1981–2008 cohort is the new-retiree flow, means-tested. Pre-1981 retirees are aging off. This is the remaining strain: a late-career tax cut before the $0-retirement date. 2071–2095 Most of the workforce is post-2008. Growing share is on 1.55%. New OASI retirement awards to this generation are zero. SSDI and survivors continue. Cost drops. The package over-solves the long-run retirement hole. After ~2100 7.75% combined on late-career post-2008 workers; 12.4% on those still under 45. No retired-worker OASI. Disability and survivors only. Social Security as a universal retirement system has ended. The insurance program can stand. SAM'S MODEST PROPOSAL TO SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY SEPTEMBER 2026 Discussion draft · Not an official SSA actuarial score Page 4 What this package does not do • It does not cut a check already being paid. • It does not raise the employer match, or the employee rate on wages under the cap, for anyone 45+ today — except the above-cap uncap in Rule 5. • It does not touch SSDI or survivor benefits. • It does not, by itself, prevent the 2032/2034 reserve depletion. Rules 1, 2, and 4 are silent in that window. Rule 3 is small. Rule 5 is the bridge. • It does not keep Social Security as a retirement program for people born after 2008. That is the point of Rule 1. Drafting notes worth putting in the statute Keep the 1.55 percent rate from eating disability and survivor financing. After age 45, combined tax is still 7.75 percent (1.55 employee + 6.2 employer), which more than covers SSDI and survivors. If you want the discount legally limited to the retirement slice, write a dedicated 2.0–2.5 percent combined DI-and-survivors premium that stays in force after 45 and take the 25 percent haircut only off the residual employee retirement slice. Cash change is small. Labeling is not. Define the means test as a five-year average of employment income against that year's wage base, not a five-year sum and not “any year over the cap.” Count W-2 and self-employment. Do not count dividends, rents, or capital gains. Expect behavior. Rule 3 is a snapshot-plus-arrivals rule. “Not a citizen on the enactment date, or not a citizen at arrival after enactment.” Naturalization does not turn the surcharge off. Rule 5 must not credit the extra taxed wages toward PIA. Tax the cap gap. Do not grow the maximum benefit. That is how the uncap raises cash instead of raising future checks. Honest bottom line This is a plan to wind down Social Security as a retirement system for everyone born after September 12, 2008, while leaving disability and survivor insurance standing, and while leaving people already 45 and older on the benefit formula they already have. The youth generation pays the same employee rate as everyone else until 45, then a quarter-rate for the rest of work life. It is not a 2034 fix unless the above-cap employee tax on the grandfathered group (Rule 5) is in the same bill. It is a 2071 fix for retirement cost. Between those dates the fund lives on Rule 3, Rule 5, the full 6.2 percent youth rate through 2052, and whatever payable-rate math current law already requires after reserves hit zero. If Congress wants the 2034 date moved by decades, this is the wrong shape. If Congress wants a clean generational close-out of retired-worker OASI, with no cut to people already on the rolls and no employer-rate fight, this is the shape. Figures in this draft are directional, drawn from the 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions), SSA contribution-and-benefit-base releases, and published OACT provision scores for “eliminate the taxable maximum, no additional benefit credit.” They are not a scored bill. Primary sources: Social Security Administration, 2026 OASDI Trustees Report and Trustees Report Summary; SSA Office of the Chief Actuary, Contribution and Benefit Base; SSA OACT long-range solvency provisions (taxable-maximum options).